WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads (user search)
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  WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads (search mode)
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Author Topic: WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads  (Read 4176 times)
Torie
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Posts: 46,084
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: April 22, 2016, 04:26:23 PM »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,084
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 04:35:33 PM »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.

What about CD-02? I feel like that could be close or lean Trump.

Maybe. Are South Bend Catholics Trump Catholics? The other counties are very conservative, and religious, which is not Trump's best demographic. He does best with more secular lower middle class/working class Catholics, and goes down from there, outside the south.
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