French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Hash]

18th (Cambrai/Cambrésis, DLR)* Gains Le Cateau-Cambrésis. The main town here is Cambrai, a politically divided (Hollande 50.8%) town which was historically less industrialized than its neighbors. Left-wing strength in this constituency which gave a narrow edge to Hollande (51.9%) is to be found in smaller industrial centres, first and foremost Caudry (textile town, 60% H), Escaudœuvres (sugar factory, 60%), Iwuy (58.2%) or Masnières (glass, 66.5% for Hollande and a strong PCF base). This is, in good part, a blue-collar and low-income constituency, fairly rural or semi-rural with a few regional centres and strong exurban influences all around. Marine won 25.1% here, and even better if you take out Cambrai. The right is fairly strong in more rural areas outside the smaller industrial centres. Traditionally left-wing, represented by the left between 1958 and 1973, Jacques Legendre, now a Senator, won in 1973 and 1978 before the PS won in 1981 and then in 1988. In 1997, François-Xavier Villain, the DVD mayor of Cambrai since 1992 was narrowly defeated by the PS but he won easily in 2002 (55.9%) and 2007 (57.5%). Villain is a member of NDA's party, DLR, but maintains better relations with the UMP than his boss. This year, the UMP is not running a candidate against him. The PS candidate is Martine Filleul - CG for... Lille-centre (?). Though Hollande won this constituency, I think Villain has a personal vote here. He's a popular mayor in Cambrai, and can win a significantly better result than Sarko won in that town. However, the very high risk of a triangulaire puts him in a weaker position, I don't know how well the FN will perform against a non-UMP maverick-type right-winger, but a triangulaire could very well cost him his seat. I'm at a loss.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

19th (Denain, DVG) In this seat, we are back in the mining basin. Hollande won 60.8% here; Mélenchon won 17.8%, Marine took 26.9% while Sarko won all of 17.1%. The cantons of Denain, Valenciennes-sud (excluding the urban part of the city itself, in the 21st), and most of the canton of Bouchain lie in the mining basin. Denain, Escaudin, Douchy-les-Mines, Neuville-sur-Escaut, Sentinelle, Haulchain and Thiant are some of the main former mining villages in this constituency. Like in the 16th, the proletarian and left-wing traditions remain very strong here, despite the big gains made by the FN throughout the constituency and Marine's impressive results, even in a lot of PCF bastions. With a few exceptions, this is largely a working-class and very poor constituency, with major job loses and economic problems. Politically, the PCF and PS have fought over this seat, while the right finds itself excluded year after year. Indeed, the left has always held this seat, since 1958. The SFIO won in 1958, before the PCF held this seat between 1962 and 2002. Usually, legislative battles opposed PS and PCF candidates, the one who placed second invariably dropped out and allowed the winner to win unopposed. This is what has happened since 1997 here (maybe 1993 or 1988, I don't have numbers). In 2002, the PS mayor of Denain, Patrick Roy, the colourful and cheerful guy known for his red vest, came out narrowly ahead of the PCF incumbent, Patrick Leroy. Again in 2007, Roy won reelection unopposed after the PCF placed second with 21.3% against 32.8% for Roy. Roy tragically died in May 2011, he has been succeeded by Marie-Claude Marchand. This election will be a chance to see if Roy won because he had a personal vote, or if the PS is indeed predominant over the PCF. The FG candidate is Michel Lefebvre, the PCF CG for Denain and mayor of Douchy-les-Mines. I would think he is the favourite, especially because the PS is divided between the incumbent, Marchand, running as a dissident against Anne-Lise Dufour, PS mayor of Denain and the official PS candidate. There's of course a chance that Dufour comes out in first place, ahead of the FG, but I personally see the FG winning here. The FN has the support to place second and change things up a bit, but I doubt it will have a huge presence in the end.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

20th (Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, FG-PCF)* Gains the commune of Vieux-Condé (canton of Condé-sur-l'Escaut); loses Valenciennes-nord. This seat is a final extension of the mining basin, centered around Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, not really a mining town per se (though fairly working-class, it's not dirt-poor either) but close to old mining villages including Vieux-Condé, Fresnes-sur-l'Escaut, Escautpont and now Anzin (the earliest mines), Beuvrages and Bruay-sur-l'Escaut. This region, notably Anzin and Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, also has blast furnaces and a steel industry. Hollande won 55.8% here, but Le Pen placed first here with 28% against 25% for Hollande and 20% for Sarko. The right finds a base in Saint-Amand (rive gauche), which includes some affluent communities (part of greater Lille). The PCF has been dominant here since 1962, save for one time in 1973 when a centrist won in a constituency covering parts of this one. Since 1978, the seat has been represented by Alain Bocquet (PCF), a fairly high-profile figure in the PCF (on the orthodox side of things) and a really popular local politician. He's been the mayor of Saint-Amand-les-Eaux since 1995, and he's very popular - his list in the regionals won 58% there... In 2007, he won 46.5% by the first round, and 69.2% in the runoff. The addition of Anzin theoretically weakens the PCF a bit as the canton has never really been a PCF stronghold - it's like the only mining basin canton not held by the PCF - but I doubt that's a trouble for him, he won Anzin in the 2010 regionals (hell, he basically swept the mining basin outside of Valenciennes and Douai). Bocquet faces some PS opposition and the FN can do pretty well here (though never as high at 28%), but he'll win handily again.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

21st (Valenciennes, PRV-UMP)* Gains Valenciennes-nord, loses the commune of Vieux-Condé. This constituency includes the whole of Valenciennes, historically a city influenced and in part driven by the surrounding mining and steel industries, but which has had a fairly successful transition into tertiary activities and has become far more white-collar and much less working-class. Besides, it had always been a bit of a blue island in a sea of red: the right has held the city hall since Liberation. Sarko narrowly won Valenciennes, with a bit less than 52%. However, Hollande won the constituency with 52.2%. In the first round, Sarko (25%) placed second, ahead of Marine (22.7% overall). The constituency includes some old mining villages (Marly, Onnaing, Wallers, Quiévrechain, Condé-sur-l'Escaut) but also some more affluent suburbs shared with Le Quesnoy. Since 1993, this seat has been held by Jean-Louis Borloo, mayor of Valenciennes (1989-2002). Originally Borloo was something of a maverick/independent right-winger politician, who sat in the eccentric 'République et liberté' (alongside Royer, Soisson, Tapie, Taubira, Urbaniak, Zuccarelli) group in 1993-1997; but he evolved towards the mainstream right - specifically the PRV, of which he has become the leader and top figure. In 1997, he won reelection with 52.8% against the PCF's Fabien Thiémé (who held the seat between 88 and 93), in 2002 he beat the PCF again with 63.9% in the runoff. In 2007, he won 53.7% by the first round against 19.4% for Thiémé. Boundary changes are relatively minor, but I think Valenciennes-nord might help Borloo out a *tiny* bit. He once again faces Thiémé, former PCF deputy and mayor. The PS is backing Sandrine Rousseau, a EELV regional councillor. I don't think the FN can make the runoff and this could save Borloo (if they did, he's probably screwed). He has a personal vote in Valenciennes - 62% in the city against 54% in the constituency in 2007 (he won 66.6% in the city in the 1997 runoff, against 53% in the constituency). I think this and his relative popularity/stature (even if he's a really messy guy with an alleged penchant for the bottle) as a politician can save him.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: Tossup with right edge

That was painful to do. I hope you guys realize how much sh**t I'm putting into this to please you

[Hash]

BTW Fab, you only have until this Sunday to change your mind on French abroad, because the voting at the embassies and consulates are being held this weekend, a week ahead of France (I think French Polynesia is the same?).

[big bad fab]

But they won't publish results before the 10th, before the rest of France, will they ?
Are we so Americanized, now ?

EDIT: well, I wasn't aware of this. You're right, it's the same for Polynesia.
So, on Monday, we'll have weird results abroad (and, unfortunately, I think, bad for the right) which will influence the medias in France, whereas the turnout will be low ?!?
Bah...
In a way, you aren't lucky to have Lefebvre and some Balkany in your constituency, but you have a very powerful vote, which will count far more than mine, in a gerrymandered utterly-leftist and uninteresting constituency !


Take a look at IFOP site: there are 2 polls on Corse-du-Sud 1 (Renucci beaten !!!) and Haute-Corse 2 (no surprise for Giacobbi). Absolutely no hope for nationalists, of course.

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting

And there is a poll for Charente-Maritime 1 BUT only for the 1st round !
Royal 33 / Falorni 26 / young UMP sacrificial lamb 19,5 / FN 9 / EE-LV 4 / FG 3 / MoDem 3 / Rad. 2,5
Now, there could have been a scenario nobody has really anticipated:
we are in Charente-Maritime, aka as abstention land in a way; turnout is lower than 64% and the UMP doesn't make it to the 2nd round... who wins ?
Sure, that's not likely, because the tense race around Royal will boost the turnout, but still... that would be fun to see Royal lose because the rightist voters pick a socialist local apaaratchik !
(though a rational rightist voter should vote for Royal, hoping she'll become a second internal opposition, with Aubry, and to piss off "la Présidente", our real head of state, Mrs. Trierweiler )

Sorry, I didn't want to open a debate here (please post in the other thread if you want to discuss about Royal, guys).
But these local polls are of course of some interest in the predictions.
Even though we must take them with tons of salt, as the sample isn't hugely reliable (600 or 500 in Corsica, but, what is more, hastily selected and probably in an artificial way).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating reading, as always.

And thank you Fab for giving us the complete prediction map ! So, 270 seats for the PS itself and 340 for the left overall ? Eh, may you be right !

[MaxQue]

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting

They releashed P-O 3 yesterday. Apparently, P-O 1 and 2 are coming in the next days.
They build suspense, they publish the least interesting districts first...

[minionofmidas]

Bonapartist? Wtflol? (going to read Nord now! )

[big bad fab]

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting

They releashed P-O 3 yesterday. Apparently, P-O 1 and 2 are coming in the next days.
They build suspense, they publish the least interesting districts first...

We also have Haute-Corse 1: a big surprise (but maybe not for you, Hash ) as the latest Zuccarelli seems to be threatened.


I haven't read Nord yet, Hash, but, already, big thanks and acknowledgement of your work.
I've just read and put some colours on a map, and it already took me a lot of time. So, I can imagine...

[Hash]

We also have Haute-Corse 1: a big surprise (but maybe not for you, Hash ) as the latest Zuccarelli seems to be threatened.

I wasn't sure what to expect, but as I kinda expected, the UMP seems to be beating lil Zuccarelli because the nationalists are going hardcore for the UMP in the runoff, in a massive anti-Zuccarelli vote, second coming. Corsica's gonna have some hilarious results this year.

On a side note, I just saw the UMP clip. It's basically "I'm a moron/fascist/xenophobe/idiot, so I'm voting UMP"

[Hash]

Seine-et-Marne
2007: 9 UMP
 
1st (Melun, UMP)* Gains Melun-Nord, loses the cantons of Savigny-le-Temple and Le Mée-sur-Seine. Sarko won 51% in this constituency, although Hollande won 56% in Melun (which Sarko had narrowly won in 2007), which is now included in its entirety in this constituency. Melun has been governed by the Gaullist family since 1971, but as a fairly lower middle-class suburban city (lower incomes, a large proportion of ouvriers+employees; the north of Melun has a large ZUS), it has a small lean to the left. Besides Dammarie-lès-Lys, a banlieue populaire just outside of Melun (a large ZUS) which went 59% in Hollande’s way, the right remains very strong in the remainder of the constituency, largely a middle/upper middle class suburban region. Marine won 17.8% here. This seat has been held by Jean-Claude Mignon, the RPR-UMP mayor of Dammarie-lès-Lys since 1983, since the 1988 elections. He won 54% in 1997, under less favourable boundaries, and won 57% in his last reelection in 2007. Mignon is running for another term, and faces Lionel Walker, a DVG CG and local mayor (in a fairly right-wing town), who is backed by the PS. Pierre Carassus, the MDC deputy for the old third between 1995 and 2002, is running here. This race will be closer than in 1997, even if the redistricting has shored up the right with the removal of Savigny-le-Temple and Le Mée-sur-Seine. There is a trend to the left in this area, as some younger middle-class families with more leftiegreenie orientations move in. I would think Mignon would win, but I could be wrong.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
2nd (Fontainebleau/Nemours, UMP^) This constituency is unchanged. Fontainebleau and its famous palace is the main town in this constituency, with the smaller town of Nemours. Fontainebleau is an affluent upper middle-class suburb, much like the rest of the constituency besides the canton of Château-Landon, an exurban lower middle-class canton on the border with the Loiret. Sarko won 54.7% here, including 61% in Fontainebleau. Hollande won in Nemours. Marine, in the first round, won 18.5%, with a sharp contrast between affluent and privileged Fontainebleau (13% in the canton) and poorer exurban Château-Landon (25%). The right has held this seat for ages. The retiring incumbent here is Didier Julia, who has held this seat since 1967, making him the longest-serving member. He won handily in the past, but as he got a bit cuckoo (the Iraq affair) and old, in 2007 he faced tough competition from Frédéric Vallentoux, the DVD mayor of Fontainebleau who placed second in the first round and won 42.2% in the runoff. Julia is retiring this year, and while the right should logically hold this seat rather easily – the PS candidate placed third in 2007 – it is divided between 3 strong candidates. Julia’s anointed successor is the UMP’s Valérie Lacroute, mayor of Nemours since 2008. But she faces a dissident candidacy from Vallentoux, mayor of Fontainebleau, but also another DVD dissident, Jean-François Robinet, CG for Fontainebleau and also a local mayor. The right’s division, always more dangerous than the impression that the usual superficial runoff unity could give, may haunt it and result in a fluke PS gain, if vote transfers from one right-winger to another are bad on June 17, as sometimes happens in these case. I still think the right should win here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Montereau/Basse Seine, PRV-UMP)* Loses the canton of Melun-Nord and gains the canton of Mormant. This is a marginal constituency, which gave Sarko a tiny edge with 50.3% of the votes. The main town in this constituency, Montereau-Fault-Yonne, is a fairly working-class and lower income town, which gave Hollande no less than 63%. Champagne-sur-Seine, an old industrial and working-class town in the next-door canton of Moret-sur-Loing, gave 58% Hollande. The right is boosted by the suburbs, not all that affluent but fairly well-off in large part. However, the canton of Mormant is really outside the area of privileged, integrated suburbia and is closer to distant exurbia – the FN’s famous périurbain lointain – it less affluent, has way less professionals and residents have been forced out of the big city and commute long distances to work. Marine won 21.6% in this constituency, but took 26% in the canton of Mormant. The addition of Mormant’s canton, which went to Sarko with 53.5%, shores up the right (Melun-Nord, which it replaces, gave 53.7% to Hollande) in this constituency. The right has usually been dominant here, but the left – Pierre Carassus (MDC) won a 1995 by-election and narrowly won in 1997. In 2002, Yves Jégo, the UMP mayor of Montereau, picked up this seat with 57.6% and won reelection with 63.5% in 2007. Jégo, a short-lived cabinet minister who has since sided with Borloo (peeved at losing his job, probs), faces a much tougher contest this year. There is a dissident candidacy on the right by a local mayor. On the left, the PS’ Patricia Inghelbrecht, is a local councillor, but there is A PRG candidate who is a local mayor too. The distant possibility of the FN qualifying for the runoff would likely spell Jégo’s defeat, but in the absence of such a 3-way battle, he still faces a tough race. I think he can prevail, in part by the strength of his local base in Montereau.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
4th (Brie/Provins, UMP) This seat is unchanged. The fourth is a large and sprawling seat in the east of the department, traditionally a rural region which is far more of an exurban region nowadays. The right has been very strong here, Sarko won with 56.9% (his best result in the department) but the FN has also been very present in this sector (Marine placed second with 26.3%, while Hollande won only 21.5%). The usual descriptor of this seat being ‘rural’ misses the point unless your definition of rural also means exurban with no farmers. Except for parts of the canton of Rozay-en-Brie, you have a bunch of growing exurban small towns, lower middle-class with lots of ouvriers or employees, who commute long distances to work. This is, once again, very much the FN’s périurbain lointain, which is one of the FN’s new major bases. Marine won about 27% on average in the more exurban parts of this constituency, which in a right-left scenario remain very much a ‘terre de mission’ for the left, which is very weak in these distant residential exurbs filled with white flight/petits blancs and so forth. This seat has long been held by the right (save for 1981-1982), most notably Alain Peyrefitte who won for the first time in 1958 and finally retired in 1995. Since then, it has been held the copéite Christian Jacob, mayor of Provins and president of the UMP parliamentary group. In 2007, gobbling up FN votes, he won by the first round with 54.7%. The FN was alone against the right in the runoff in 1993 and qualified for a triangulaire in 1997, which almost cost Jacob his head. There is a very real chance for a triangulaire, but low turnout means that there’s also a big chance that the left could be out by the first round, hence why PS and EELV are running a single candidate. Even in a triangulaire, I think Jacob will prevail. The left winning here would be huge.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
5th (Coulommiers, UMP)* Loses Meaux-Sud. Sarko won 56.1%, his second best result in the department. This is a suburban and exurban region – the banlieues pavillonnaires, largely middle-class or upper middle-class.  It is less distant and less “rural” than the fifth constituency, which is almost exclusively exurban. Here, only the canton of La-Ferté-sous-Jouarre and part of that of Coulommiers are really exurban, in the generally accepted sense of more lower middle-class communities. Marine won 22.5% here, doing best in La-Ferté-sous-Jouarre with 24.7% and Coulommiers with 24.6%. Hollande managed second with 23.3%. The right has long been dominant in this constituency. Between 1988 and 2007, the seat was held by Guy Drut, the athlete turned corrupt RPR crony. In 2007, Franck Riester won here with 59%. Riester is also the UMP mayor of Coulommiers. This year, he faces Elisabeth Ecuyer, a PS local mayor. There is an outside chance of the FN qualifying for the runoff, like it did in 1997 (Drut still won with 45% against 40.1%) but in any scenario, I think he’ll win pretty easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 

[Hash]

6th (Meaux, UMP)* Gains Meaux-Nord, thus unifying the whole of Meaux in a single seat, but loses Mitry-Mory and the communes of Dammartin-en-Goële, Le Mesnil-Amelot, Longperrier, Mauregard, Moussy-le-Neuf, Moussy-le-Vieux, Othis, Thieux et Villeneuve-sous-Dammartin in the canton of Dammartin-en-Goële. Sarko narrowly won this seat with 52%, while losing 54-46 in Meaux. Meaux is a fairly low-income city, with 46% of the population living in a ZUS and there’s a lot of social housing in the commune, so the fact that it would vote for Hollande is not that surprising, unlike what the clueless journalists seem to assume. That being said, the city has been governed by the right since 1995, specifically by Jean-François Copé, also the deputy in this constituency and the big boss of the UMP. The rest of the constituency in its new shape includes a mix of residential suburbs and exurbs, of varying income and social status. Marine won 22.7% here, low performances in Meaux (17.7%) being compensated by 27% in Lizy-sur-Ourcq, a largely exurban canton. Marine’s votes here, like in the other constituencies of the department, flowed fairly smoothly towards Sarko in the runoff. The PS won here in 1988 and 1997. In 1997, Copé was the victim of a triangulaire with the FN, in which he won 40.7% against 44.1% for the PS. In 2002, Copé defeated Nicole Bricq, the PS incumbent, with 59% in the runoff. In 2007, Copé won 54.3% by the first round; again he clearly gobbled up FN votes early. Marleix’s scissors were kind on Copé, removing the canton of Mitry-Mory – the PCF’s main base in the department which gave 51% to Hollande – and adding Meaux-Sud, which Sarko won with 51.5%. Yet, Copé is still facing a direct threat. But he’s lucky that the PS gave this seat (instead of the new leftie 11th) to EELV, not really very strong in this part of the 77, and perhaps a bit less of a threat than a stronger PS candidate would be (but the left has no real bench in this constituency, with no CGs and not many big mayors). The FN candidate is, like in the past, Marie-Christine Arnautu, vice-president of the FN. There is a risk for a triangulaire in which case the left could feasibly win, but my gut tells me that Copé will hang on, even if it could be by a tight margin which is a bit too close for comfort.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

7th (Claye-Souilly/Mitry-Mory, UMP)* Gains Mitry-Mory and the communes of Dammartin-en-Goële, Le Mesnil-Amelot, Longperrier, Mauregard, Moussy-le-Neuf, Moussy-le-Vieux, Othis, Thieux et Villeneuve-sous-Dammartin in the canton of Dammartin-en-Goële. It loses Chelles and Vaires-sur-Marne. Sarko won 51.6% here. He lost handily (43 against 57) in the town of Mitry-Mory proper, an historical stronghold of the PCF – I think it’s a fairly working-class/proletarian hinterland kinda place. The margin in the canton of Lagny-sur-Marne (51-49), a fairly affluent suburban canton, was perhaps a bit too close for comfort for the right. This rather urbanized and all-over ‘Parisian’ region does not have a very clear and solid political identity, though it leans to the right in national elections. The urban growth from Paris, with young families and so forth moving into these and other areas, favours the left. The left is, on balance, hurt by the redistricting here, but even on the old boundaries the right won in 1997 (but not in 1988). In 2007, Yves Albarello, UMP mayor of Claye-Souilly, won 55.5% in the runoff. He faces Sophie Cerqueira, a PS local councillor in Noisiel. Marine won 21%, which I don’t think will be enough for a triangulaire. The right should hold on narrowly in this one too.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

8th (Torcy/Roissy-en-Brie, UMP)* Loses Noisiel and Champs-sur-Marne. Hollande won here with 51.2%, a result due in very large part to the cities of Torcy (64%) and Roissy-en-Brie (59%)... indeed, those are basically the only major communes he won in this constituency! Torcy and Roissy-en-Brie are not quite cités populaires, the latter definitely not. They're not breaking records for their wealth and most the population are employees or ouvriers, but at the same time they're generally lower middle/middle class, fairly well educated and young. Generally a kind of middle-class leftie petite bourgeoisie, not quite bobo but close to it, a population of public servants and public sector employees, young families looking for cheaper property prices and so forth. Torcy is a bit more populaire on balance, and has a larger foreign-born population. Still, neither of these two communes include ZUS. The left won here in 1988 and 1997, but the boundaries back then where way more favourable to the left. That being said, this area has generally trended towards the left since then. Since 2002, the seat has been held by Chantal Brunel (UMP), who is pretty much a racist douchebag. She won 51.7% in 2002 and 50.9% in 2007, but again the loss of the two cantons has shifted it towards the right some. Brunel is running again - a pity she didn't get the FN endorsement (in passing, Marine won about 15% here, the second lowest result in the department), she'd have been a perfect fit - and faces Eduardo Rihan Cypel (PS), a local and regional councillor. For once I won't be pessimistic about the chances of a deputy I loathe, because I think the left has a solid chance to win here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

9th (Combs-la-Ville, UMP)* Loses the canton of Mormant and all of the canton of Combs-la-Ville except for Combs-la-Ville itself. Sarko won 51.8% here, narrowly losing to Hollande in middle-class Pontault-Combault, and lost by a big margin in the middle-class new town of Combs-la-Ville. In affluent small town suburbia in Brie-Comte-Robert, Sarko easily dominated overall. Hollande did pretty well for a PS candidate in this region, there seems to be some population growth, again, from younger families moving out of Paris into the increasingly well integrated suburbs of the 77 for lower property prices. This isn't yet a 'forced' or 'compelled' move to exurbia which makes you love Panzergirl... The left won here when it won nationally, in 1988 and 1997 - again, this is a type of suburbia whose political identity is not really all that clear or rock-solid. Guy Geoffroy, the villepiniste UMP mayor of Combes-la-Ville, has held this seat since 2002. He won 52.7% in 2002 and 54.6% in 2007. Marine won 18.4%, so the chances of a triangulaire are low. He faces PS local councillor Sébastien Podevyn. The left can win here, and Geoffroy imperatively needs to hold Sarko's runoff margin plus do better in his city (Combs-la-Ville, where he performed below his constituency-wide average in 2007 but won it with 54% still) than Sarko did (Hollande won it with 57%). I will give the right a tiny edge here too. I must say that the 7th and this one are pretty tough by their nature as what Siegfried would call "marais politiques" (which are annoying!)
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

10th (Chelles/Noisiel/Champs-sur-Marne, notional PS)+: This new seat includes the cantons of Chelles, Champs-sur-Marne, Noisiel and Vaires-sur-Marne. Hollande won 57.9% overall, including 60.6% in Champs-sur-Marne (the town) and 68% in Noisiel. This is a nice 'reserve' constituency, like the other new seat (the 11th). Marleix's clear goal was to shore up other right-wing seats and make sure that the left would win, generally, 2-3 seats out of 11 in the department. This constituency includes the left-wing strongholds of the north of the department. Chelles, a former working-class city, is now a comfortable middle-class suburb, a bit like Torcy. Champs-sur-Marne, a PCF stronghold, is not really working-class, but likely has a large student population and is otherwise a comfortable middle-class suburb. Noisiel is a bit poorer and there are a lot of HLMs, though no ZUS, and some social problems, but it isn't a dump either. The PS will have no trouble in winning here. Their candidate is Emeric Bréhier, a local councillor in Chelles.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

11th (Savigny-le-Temple/Le Mée-sur-Seine, notional PS)+: This is reserve #2, covering the leftie strongholds of the south of the department, the cantons of Savigny-le-Temple, Le Mée-sur-Seine and the canton of Combs-la-Ville except for Combs-la-Ville itself. These towns are basically new towns in the Melun-Sénart area. Savigny-le-Temple, a PS stronghold with 65% in the town itself, is a middle-class suburban community with a bunch of young families. Le Mée-sur-Seine, on the other hand, at 60% for Hollande, is a cité populaire (43% live in a ZUS). Moissy-Cramayel and Nandy, two other new towns in the same area, have a similar demographic profile to Savigny-le-Temple. Once again, this seat was one of the two leftie strongholds created by Marleix's scissors in order to ensure that the main leftie strongholds get packed into "inoffensive" constituencies. The PS, their candidate is Olivier Faure, will have no trouble winning here either. Hollande won 59.9%
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

[Hash]

Vaucluse seems like a fine one to do next... we're running out of really interesting places.

I'm really curious about how the results turn up in my constituency and in the other constituencies. With the internet voting on top of the uncertainty, novelty and low turnout dynamics; this is all quite unpredictable. Fab's guesses seem like a pretty good starting point. The PS will easily win in the African constituency, the German one and probably the British one. I don't want to be one of the idiots who gets hyped up about a boring contest only because it's "at home", but my constituency is, afaik, the most open-ended race and a great pure tossup. You have a right-wing lean to this constituency, but the right has 600 candidates and a beyond-awful official UMP candidate; the PS has a local and competent candidate. Judging from the emails which have been flooding in, Fredo must really be sh**tting his pants right now. His campaign seems to be running on the fact that he served in parliament before, that he's endorsed by a bunch of UMP hacks or that he's the "legitimate" candidate of the right. He's taken the route every candidate in his situation usually takes, the "I will speak the truth"/"from the bottom of my earth" bullsh**t. On the other hand, while lil Balkany seems eerily quiet, JJSS' son is really hyped up and seems to believe he has a lot of momentum (he got some independent candidate to drop out and endorse him). I think Fredo could conceivably be knocked out by either lil Balkany or JJSS' son by the first round, which would be so epic and awesome. JJSS could probably win in the runoff, but I have my doubts about Balkany and certainly Fredo's abilities to win in the runoff. The right-wing dissidents are basically all saying that the PS would win if Fredo was her opponent and that only them can unite the "right and centre".

On my side, I hope my candidate wins...


...over 1-2% of the vote that is. She has no campaign, but that's how I like it. Having an email inbox which is filled with "personalized" messages from right-wing candidates is quite annoying. The kooky Gaullist nutjob is particularly big on trolling my inbox.

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering if there is a historical rule of thumb of how often the leader in the first round goes on to  win the runoff in the legislative elections in France. I'm guessing its in the 90%+ range but it would be interesting to see a historical chart.
    In this years election, I'm wondering what will happen if the UMP and PS each get around 33% first round nationwide votes, in terms of how many first place finishers each party will have throughout France. I'm guessing the UMP would have a few more as their vote might be more strategically spread out?

[Hash]

Vaucluse
2007: 4 UMP

1st (Avignon, UMP^) Hollande won 52.2% here, by far his best result in this very right-wing department. Marine won 22.8% and third place, easily her worst result. This constituency is centered on the city of Avignon, which has always been more left-wing than the department but which gave Hollande a sizable 55-45 gap this year. He took 61% in Avignon-Sud, which includes the most 'populaire' parts of the city, but also 53% in Avignon-Ouest which includes some more bobo parts in the old town. I suppose he won the parts of Avignon-Nord and Avignon-Est which are in the city itself, but narrowly lost in these two cantons because of the inclusion of Le Pontet (55% Sarko, after 31% for Le Pen) and Morieres-les-Avignon (59% Sarko). But in the long term, the city has shifted to the right. Since 1995, it has been governed by the RPR-UMP's Marie-Josée Roig. The constituency elected right-wingers only in 1958 and 1968, then again in 1993 and the last two elections. The PS won the seat in 1988 and then again in 1997, when Elisabeth Guigou narrowly defeated the incumbent 'depute-maire' Marie-Josée Roig in a triangulaire de la mort with the FN. Guigou's move to seek elections in way more favourable lands allowed the UMP to easily win this seat back in 2002, with 58.4% in the runoff for Roig. She won 56.7% in 2007, but her reelection in Avignon in 2008 was quite narrow. Roig is retiring this year. The UMP has endorsed Valérie Wagner, a PRV 'adjointe' in Avignon. But there are two DVD candidacies. The PS has the same candidate as in 2007, Michèle Fournier-Armand, PS CG for Avignon-Sud. The PCF CG for Avignon-Est, André Castelli, is running for the FG. With an incumbent retiring and right seemingly divided, I bet on a PS victory here. A triangulaire would further ruin the chances of the right here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

2nd (Cavaillon/Durance, UMP)* Loses Gordes, Apt and Pertuis. Sarko won 57.8% here, while Marine won second place with 26.9% - Hollande placed third (21.4%). The main town here is Cavaillon along the Durance. Cavaillon and L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue both lie in the low plains of the Rhone valley, while Bonnieux and Cadenet are more in the mountains of the Lubéron. Sarko did best, like Marine, in the Rhone valley cantons of Cavaillon and L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue, basically lower middle-class and fairly poor areas, with a strong pied-noir influence. On the other hand, "on the other side" of the mountains, the old leftie traditions begin to be seen, though the leftieness found in these parts is, as far as I know, more of the hippie neo-rural/bobos-in-the-countryside phenomenon. Under different boundaries, the left won here in 1988 and 1997 (thanks to the FN in 1997, oc). The UMP regained the seat with 52.2% in 2002. In 2007, Jean-Claude Bouchet, UMP mayor of Cavaillon, triumphed in a "primaire sauvage" against the incumbent, Maurice Giro and took 55.3% in the runoff. In a left-right situation, the redistricting here shores up the right, the left having done best in the cantons of Apt and Pertuis in 2007. Bouchet should win reelection fairly easily. The left is divided because the EELV candidate backed by the PS, a local mayor, is opposed by Michel Fuillet, the CG for L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue. With the FG on top of that, there's a big risk that the runoff will oppose Bouchet to the FN's Emile Cavasino, in which case he'd win easily. Even in a triangulaire, I foresee him surviving.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

3rd (Carpentras, UMP)* This seat loses Carpentras-Nord, Sault and Mormoiron. An awful seat, which splits Carpentras (for reasons we'll see later). Sarko won 60.3% here, but in the first round, Panzergirl won 31.5% in this dump, placing first, while Hollande won only 19.1%. She took 35% in the canton of Bedarries, in the Rhone valley, but also 30.5% in Carpentras-Sud. Carpentras has a PS mayor but it is a very conservative place (28.5% for Marine, 59% Sarko). The region is largely a lower middle-class region, with strong Poujadist and individualist traditions. The canton of Bedarries, a wine-making and fruit growing region, contains the same far-right tendencies as those we will wind in Orange. The FN has been very strong in this region for a long time. Between 1993 and 2007, all three runoffs opposed the right - represented since 1988 by Jean-Michel Ferrand - to the FN. In 1997, Ferrand defeated the FN 63-37, in 2002 he won 68%. In 2007, the FN collapsed to 7.8%, allowing the PS (16.4%) to finally make the runoff, which it lost 64.5-35.5 to Ferrand. This will be one of the most high-profile races this year, because it opposes Ferrand, not a particularly strong incumbent but obviously - like all the UMP in this dump - quite willing to play the fascist-lite or "respectable far-right lunatic" game; to Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the 21-year old granddaughter of Daddy and Panzergirl's niece. She's fairly hot (though she has those weird Le Pen eyes) but it's too bad that she's probably a retarded fascist (the old problem of hot blonde conservatives being nutjobs or fruitcakes). Ferrand also faces a dissident non-FN right-wing candidacy from Astrid Ducros, who seems close to the far-right mayor of Orange, Jacques Bompard. But Daddy's Little Girl's suppleant is Hervé de Lépinau, the vice-president of Bompard's party, the Ligue du Sud (LDS, yeah, you gotta be on LSD to vote for them). This was Hollande's worst constituency out of the five, so there is a big risk that the PS' Catherine Arkilovitch gets eliminated by the first round, especially because the FG candidate had already won 10.7% himself in 1997. I would bet on a Ferrand-Lil Le Pen (so, sh**tte vs. sh**t or cancer vs. AIDS; welcome to the Vaucluse, "sh**thole par excellence") runoff. The PS candidate has said that she would not vote for Ferrand in the runoff, justified by Ferrand's fairly FN-lite stature himself. In such a runoff, while I think lil Le Pen could break 40-45%, I foresee Ferrand winning. A triangulaire with the PS would be very risky as the FN could win.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

4th (Orange, UMP^) This constituency is unchanged. The main city here is Orange, a big military city, and Bollène. The constituency extends to the mountains, but by far the main population sectors are Orange/Bollène and that general vicinity. In economic and social terms, this is a fairly lower middle-class and fairly poor constituency. There's a strong Poujadist tradition here, with  small and fairly poor individualist landowners who fear immigration (but love to hire them), "declassement" ('proletarianization') and generally opposes taxes or state intervention. Agriculture and related activities such as agrifood remain important, especially in the Rhone valley, a major fruit-growing region with farms employing a fairly large number of migrant workers and farm workers. The ouvriers agricoles in this day and age, less educated and not integrated into urban organized labour, but also facing competition from North African migrant workers, have tended to be one of the FN's strongest demographics. The FN indeed won very strong results here: Marine placed first with 29% against 28.7% for Sarko and a bit over 20% for Hollande, but she won 32% in the canton of Bollène and 31% and 29% respectively in the two cantons of Orange. Sarko won 60% in the runoff. The PS won in 1988, but it might as well have been a century away. Thierry Mariani has held this seat since 1993, but he's retiring this year to run abroad. In 1993 and 1997, he faced triangulaires with the PS and Jacques Bompard (FN) who has been mayor of Orange since 1995. In 2002, he faced Bompard in the runoff, and won with 57.6%. Bompard left the FN in 2005, to join Phil de Villiers' MPF, under whose banner he ran in 2007. He placed a close third with 19.7%, but the PS beat him out for second, and Mariani won 60.2% in the runoff against the PS. Bompard quite the MPF when Phil moved the party closer to the UMP and in 2010 he founded his own party, the Ligue du Sud, a Lega Nord-wannabe far-right/fascist party. Bompard has been, if you have half a brain, a downright horrible mayor with ghastly far-right policies, but he won reelection fairly easily in 2001 and 2008. He is running again this year. He is helped by the division of the right in Mariani's absence: the incumbent suppléant for Mariani, Paul Durieu, is running as a dissident against Bénédicte Martin, the official UMP candidate who is a local and regional councillor. Bompard has a FN candidate, Annie-France Soulet, who is running against him, but he seems to have picked up the endorsement of the FN CG for Carpentras-Nord. The PS candidate, Pierre Meffre, ran in 2007, and is the mayor of Vaison-la-Romaine. There is a chance that the runoff will end up being right-Bompard, but the PS could potentially qualify for a triangulaire. This is very much a pure tossup race, depending on tons of factors: the Durieu vs. Martin primary on the right, the FN's performance against Bompard - does he, presumably, crush them or does the FN do not too shabbily?, the qualification or not of the PS for the runoff and the left's attitude in a runoff which it could potentially win in a fluke but which could very well lead to Bompard's victory. Bompard needs to do well not only in Orange (where he won 39% in 2007 and 36.6% in the regionals, against a stronger FN) but also in the Bollène area, where his wife is mayor, and the whole Rhone valley.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (right-left-far right)

[Hash]

 
5th (Elbridge Gerry Memorial Constituency, notional UMP)+: This new seat is an atrocity which takes in the north of Carpentras in the plains, goes up the Ventoux, takes in the St-Christol plateau, the Monts de Vaucluse, falls in the Apt valley, climbs the Lubéron before ending in Pertuis on the Durance valley. Sarko won 55.4% here, with a contrast between Carpentras-Nord (60.5% Sarko) and Gordes (63%) Sarko and the more leftie inland mountainous cantons, including one (Sault) where Hollande actually won. Carpentras-Nord, much more of a valley canton with the far-right/right-wing lean common to them (30.5% for Marine vs. 24.7% in the constituency), and Gordes, with the Vaucluse valley under the exurban influence of Avignon, contrast with the rural areas which have an old left-wing tradition and strong cooperative movement. The new constituency was clearly created with the aim of making sure the left could not win here unless it was a huge leftie-slide. The UMP favourite is Julien Aubert, of which I don't know much about. Even in the case of a triangulaire, which is possible, the UMP should win here without that much trouble.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

I'm getting really bored of doing this, and running out of departments which interest me (or I can stop doing entire departments and only selected races, here and there). I will probably post my prediction map soon.

[big bad fab]

Vaucluse seems like a fine one to do next... we're running out of really interesting places.

I'm really curious about how the results turn up in my constituency and in the other constituencies. With the internet voting on top of the uncertainty, novelty and low turnout dynamics; this is all quite unpredictable. Fab's guesses seem like a pretty good starting point. The PS will easily win in the African constituency, the German one and probably the British one. I don't want to be one of the idiots who gets hyped up about a boring contest only because it's "at home", but my constituency is, afaik, the most open-ended race and a great pure tossup. You have a right-wing lean to this constituency, but the right has 600 candidates and a beyond-awful official UMP candidate; the PS has a local and competent candidate. Judging from the emails which have been flooding in, Fredo must really be sh**tting his pants right now. His campaign seems to be running on the fact that he served in parliament before, that he's endorsed by a bunch of UMP hacks or that he's the "legitimate" candidate of the right. He's taken the route every candidate in his situation usually takes, the "I will speak the truth"/"from the bottom of my earth" bullsh**t. On the other hand, while lil Balkany seems eerily quiet, JJSS' son is really hyped up and seems to believe he has a lot of momentum (he got some independent candidate to drop out and endorse him). I think Fredo could conceivably be knocked out by either lil Balkany or JJSS' son by the first round, which would be so epic and awesome. JJSS could probably win in the runoff, but I have my doubts about Balkany and certainly Fredo's abilities to win in the runoff. The right-wing dissidents are basically all saying that the PS would win if Fredo was her opponent and that only them can unite the "right and centre".

On my side, I hope my candidate wins...


...over 1-2% of the vote that is. She has no campaign, but that's how I like it. Having an email inbox which is filled with "personalized" messages from right-wing candidates is quite annoying. The kooky Gaullist nutjob is particularly big on trolling my inbox.

Is Treuille a "good" candidate ?
I don't know him at all and know absolutely nothing about his campaign, I was just wondering. Trying to know how I could have voted on the right, if I were a French abroad in North America...


If you have some courage left, well, Vosges or Cher or even Meuse could be of some interest for you, I think. In the small ones.
If you want to make just one other IdF department, Essonne is the best.

These are just ideas and friendly advices for you, not a demand.
All the more that I haven't read your writings on Nord (I want to have some time when I'm relaxed and quiet; these days, I'm overbooked and have some big familial problems to try to settle - not my close family, of course).

Otherwise, selected constituencies (excluding the 4 departments citec above):
Val-de-Marne 6th
Hauts-de-Seine 10th
Hauts-de-Seine 12th
Yvelines 12th
Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th
Gironde 10th
Val-de-Marne 8th
Hauts-de-Seine 2nd
Hauts-de-Seine 13th
and if you like uncertainty inside the left: Aude 2nd, Haute-Garonne 3rd, Haute-Garonne 9th, Rhône 1st, this last one being a real puzzle for me)

[big bad fab]

Thanks for Vaucluse and 77. Of course, I'm a bit daring with Bompard's win, Jégo's defeat and even Albarello's and Geoffroy's defeats.
But Seine-et-Marne is pinker and pinker (see the cantonales) and the FN is less strong, but strong enough in exactly the constituencies where it can hurt the right (outer suburbs or rural areas).
And as Vaucluse 4th is indeed a pure tossup (or a pure mess), it could be funny... With more turnout, a quadrangulaire could have well occurred here !
I like your comments on Vaucluse 3rd, with the "real" Marion (a real Le Pen or a real FN woman, BTW... loyal to old traditions of the 70s-80s... )

[Hash]

Hashpipe's 100% Incorrect Super-Duper Predictions of sh**tte



Safe left: 210
Left favoured: 40
Lean left: 28
Tossup - left edge: 43
Left total: 321 (55%)

Tossup - centre edge: 2

Safe right: 89
Right favoured: 67
Lean right: 42
Tossup - right edge: 40
Left total: 238

I'm busier this week at work, but I can use the next 8-9 days to do some profiles on the most interesting races, like those listed by Fab. Or explaining my flawed calls with bullsh**t reasoning and grasping at straws. And yeah, my call on my constituency is a bit subjective wishful thinking.

[Hash]

Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)

I was wondering why you say that. It is indeed an interesting constituency in a pretty interesting (but crappy) part of the world, but why is it "a must" for me?

[rob in cal]

Sharif, I've enjoyed your posts on the upcoming election.  One question.  What makes a district a "dump"?  Is it voting for the far right, or is it that those areas are kind of weird, funky areas to start with.  Put another way, if a seat like Carpentras somehow voted for the PS, would it still be a "dump"?

[big bad fab]

Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)

I was wondering why you say that. It is indeed an interesting constituency in a pretty interesting (but crappy) part of the world, but why is it "a must" for me?

Oh, nothing really special: just another Marleix opus, but with a real uncertainty, with not-so-good candidates from the UMP and the left, a threatening FN, etc.
My phrase was probably a bit excessive.


So, we agree on Hauts-de-Seine, Aveyron and Lot-et-Garonne !? Amazing ! It gives me some hope.
Sure, on some others, like Drôme, it's not the case. But, of course, I'd be happier if you're eventually right

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you for all the work you put into this. It is truly fascinating. I have yet to finish reading your latest profiles, but I should pull through this before june 10. As for new ones. If you have the time (and if you think it's worth it) I'd like you to cover some Ile-de-France races, whatever departements there you find interesting. Other than that... Maybe Réunion could be interesting, I don't know ? What about some other foreign constituencies (even if I guess they're hard to predict with certainty) ? What about the rest of Picardie, which seems like there are a lot of close races ? I don't know about Isère, but if Fab says it's interesting it certainly is.

Now, if I have look at your national figures, it turns out that the seats where the left is clearly favored (tossups excluded) are only 278, ie eleven seats less than the absolute majority. Of course it's almost certain that, of the 101 tossup seats, at least 11 will break up for the left. But still, it means that a workable majority is not exactly guaranteed. Anyways, that provides us a significantly different scenario than Fab's (who predicts 339 seats to go left, 18 more than you) which will help sorting things out on election day.

Thank you again.

[Hash]

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

[big bad fab]

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

Yeah, we are quite close.
That's probably why I'll be wrong again

[Hash]

Hauts-de-Seine: Hot Seats

5th (Clichy/Levallois-Perret, UMP) Sarko won by the skin of his teeth, with 51% in this constituency. A narrow result which reveals the polarization of this constituency between its two towns: Clichy and Levallois-Perret. Hollande won 66.9% in Clichy, but Sarko took 63.3% in Levallois-Perret. Clichy is a fairly poor and old blue-collar suburb, with a population made up largely of employees or intermediate-grade professionals. Of course, few places in the Petite Couronne are actually working-class, much less in the 92, but Clichy is one of those formerly proletarian hinterland communes transformed into low-income suburbs of employees, immigrants and poorer suburbanites. It obviously has seen gentrification and it isn't some craphole like some places in the 93, but nothing has changed the solidly left-wing physiognomy of the place. On the other hand, Levallois-Perret used to be more working-class - it was a PCF stronghold until the 70s or so - but has been turned into a bourgeois upper middle-class suburban city, which isn't as affluent as Neuilly but certainly a very nicely off suburb. Politically, Levallois-Perret is best known as the stronghold of the Balkany clan, one of the main 'clans' in the eternally amusing world of right-wing politics in the Hauts-de-Seine. Patrick Balkany, a close friend of Sarko, served as mayor between 1983 and 1995, when he was defeated by a chiraquien rival, and again since 2001. Of course, in reality, Balkany and his sidekick (Isabelle Balkany) should be in jail, given that they're criminals. He held this constituency between 1988 and 1997, when in the midst of judicial problems the clan lost the seat to Olivier de Chazeaux, the chiraquien who had won the city hall in 1995. However, in 2002, Balkany retrieved his old seat in a close three-way runoff battle against Gilles Catoire, the PS mayor of Clichy, and the UMP-endorsed incumbent, Olivier de Chazeaux. In 2007, Balkany won 55.3% in the runoff against Catoire. This year's match opposes another Patrick Balkany-Gilles Catoire rematch. The race promises to be very narrow, though perhaps Balkany does have a narrow edge.
I rated this as a 'pure tossup'. I might reclassify it as 'tossup with right edge'.

10th (Issy-les-Moulineaux/Vanves, NC) Hollande won 53.5% in this constituency which includes all of Vanves, Issy-les-Moulineaux and a part of Boulogne-Billancourt. Vanves and Issy are two fairly upper middle-class communities, Vanves has gentrified a lot and is rather bobo these days, though Issy is increasingly bobo as well. Vanves, however, leans to the left, Royal narrowly won it in 2007 and Hollande took 56% this year. Issy-les-Moulineaux generally leans to the right, though Hollande won it this year with 52%. This constituency is now falling under the bobo/young professional middle-classes belt of the southern 92, coinciding with the Paris-Orsay axis of scientific research and educated professional middle-classes. The right's traditional hold on this seat is threatened this year. The seat has been held by André Santini, the slightly corrupt old UDF-NC mayor of Issy-les-Moulineaux and another of the main fixtures in the world of 92 right-wing politics. He won with 55.9% in 2007, a margin slightly narrower than his 1997 margin. He faces the same candidate, Lucile Schmid, but she has since quit the PS to join EELV. She has the PS' endorsement, but there is a dissident candidacy by Laurent Pieuchot, who had been her PS suppleant in 2007. I think Schmid can still prevail over the dissident, and in the runoff, if things work out fine, the trend is heavy against the right here...
I'd stick with my slightly daring 'lean left' call here.

12th (Clamart/Fontenay-aux-Rose, UMP^) Hollande won 53.5% in this seat, whose electoral sociology is quite similar to the 10th, located in that Paris-Orsay axis of professional middle-class suburbs, which are shifting heavily to the left. Hollande won 58.5% in Fontenay-aux-Roses, historically more left-leaning and I believe historically more blue-collar; but also 55% in Chatillon and 53% in Clamart. He only lost in Le Plessis-Robinson proper. Semi-ironically, Le Plessis-Robinson is, of the four communes, the one which is the "least" professional with higher percentages of employees and slightly less bobo in its general political orientations. The right is clearly threatened here, in a seat which, again, it has held since 1988. In 2002, Philippe Pemezec, a slightly distasteful right-winger under the Pasquaist RPF etiquette defeated the UDF-UMP incumbent, Jean-Pierre Foucher, in the first round (27.1% vs. 24.7%) and then won the runoff with 53.6%. In 2007, he won a fairly small 52.9% in the runoff. In 2008, a by-election gave the edge to his successor Jean-Pierre Schosteck after Pemezec was declared ineligible in a campaign finance problem. But only with 51.6%. Pemezec, who is also mayor of Le Plessis-Robinson, is running this time, with Schosteck as his suppleant. The aubryiste Jean-Marc Germain is the PS candidate, while the EELV's candidate, Francine Bavay, had won 46% in the runoff in 2002, as the Green-PS candidate. I don't think the PS' candidate is particularly strong, but the results were already narrow in 2007 (but was it because the then-PS candidate, Kaltenbach, now senator, was mayor of Clamart?) and Hollande won pretty handily here, so I would still bet on the left.

13th (Antony/Sceaux, UMP) Hollande won 52.7% in another bastion of the 92 right which has been held by the right since 1988 but which looks increasingly disputed this year. This constituency includes Châtenay-Malabry, a town marked by the presence of several universities (58% Hollande); Antony, the political base of the UMP incumbent in this constituency, Patrick Devedjian, traditionally a right-leaning town but Hollande narrowly won here with 52%; Sceaux, a very bourgeois town which was Sarko's only victory (but with a small 52%); and Bourg-la-Reine, rather upper middle-class but which handed Hollande a win with 52%. Again, this part of the 92 is in the boboized professional middle-class Paris-Orsay axis, and this constituency in particular has a fairly large student population and an important academia base. The right has historically been dominant, in the figure of Patrick Devedjian, former mayor of Antony and deputy since 1988. Historically a Sarkozyst, the relations between Devedjian and the Sarkozyst clan have soured and he is increasingly seen as one of the 'anti-Sarkozysts' in the wonderful world of UMP shenanigans in the 92. Devedjian won 54.9% in 2007... in 1997 he had won 55.9%. Devedjian faces a tough race but can hope to profit from the left's troubles here. The PS is officially backing Julien Landfried, from the MRC, but the PS section in Bourg-la-Reine is backing Fabien Feuillade, a EELV local councillor in Antony. On top of that, the FG is running the 2002 PS candidate against Devedjian, Pascale Le Néouannic. The division of the left could ruin its hopes of defeating the president of the general council and certainly one of the top figures of the Gangs of New York UMP92. I predicted a tossup with a right edge here, and I'm confident with my call (for now).

[big bad fab]

Yeah, I agree, Devedjian can make it. The left isn't fantastic in his constituency and his independent mind can save him.

As for Balkany, I'd say it'd be narrow too IF the PS candidate wasn't Catoire: he is too old and it's a bit as a football match between Levallois and Clichy: even if you don't like the team of your city, you support it in the end... At this game, Levallois will back Balkany enough for him to win.

And we agree completely on the 10th and 12th.
Santini will fall, due to the fact he is a dinosaur now and that bobos will back Schmid heartily.