Possible New GOP Coalitions

[DC Al Fine]

From another thread:

The next Democratic coalition is here, and it is the predominant feature of the contemporary American landscape.  The next few decades are going to be very difficult for the Republicans, a la the 1930s through 1960s.

The Democrats have created a winning coalition of minorities, younger/better educated whites, and unmarried women. Like all coalitions, it will eventually lose ground or break up. Say the GOP is ascendant sometime in the next 20-40 years. What does their coalition look like?

[DC Al Fine]

True, you never know for sure. But given the nature of American racial and social hierarchies it would be most likely that biracial Hispanic/Whites would identify as whites and that light skinned Hispanics generally will start identifying as whites. Many biracial Asian/Whites will have an upper middle class background and people with high social status are generally perceived as whiter than people with low status.

I agree.  The category of "whiteness" has ever changing boundaries, many of which are ridiculously arbitrary.  It could essentially swallow up several categories of people in the future who are currently excluded.  Especially since "whiteness" is basically associated with the "mainstream" in the USA, and an increasing number of people without 100% European heritage are helping to define the mainstream nowadays.

NO way, if you understand America at all you would know the 'one drop rule' - if you have one drop of black blood, you're black.  You're not just white because you 'look white'.  I think the same would hold true with other races in American's perceptions, though obviously Hispanics of purely European ancestry might be the exception.

No, definitions change. The Irish and Italians are white now.

[DC Al Fine]

The next Republican coalition will be more secular, more educated, younger, more urban and more diverse.  It has to be because that is the way that the country is moving in that direction.

The United States is becoming as secularized and as cosmopolitan as Western Europe, and the Republican Party will have to mold themselves in the shape of Europe's center-right parties to build their next coalition.

Just curious here, but what does a CDU or UMP coalition look like?