The next Republican coalition will be more secular, more educated, younger, more urban and more diverse. It has to be because that is the way that the country is moving in that direction.
The United States is becoming as secularized and as cosmopolitan as Western Europe, and the Republican Party will have to mold themselves in the shape of Europe's center-right parties to build their next coalition.
Just curious here, but what does a CDU or UMP coalition look like?
I imagine that it would look a lot like the "one nation" Tories of the UK. The GOP goes from opposing any from of social engineering to supporting certain forms of social engineering and government intervention under the auspices of building social cohesion and supporting further economic growth. I imagine that the GOP could also put a nice technocratic, neoconservative twist on this traditional "liberal conservative" stance.
I believe a coalition of this type would probably include strong support from the pro-business community as well as be more appealing to the upper-middle class and well-educated. If a strong "law and order" push was made by the GOP, that could also push the suburbs from purple to deep red again, I believe.
So, business community + suburbs + yuppies = next GOP coalition.
Of course, this is all assuming moderation in social issues.
I basically say what needs to happen here:
The GOP needs to be the party of the Sunbelt, not the Rust Belt. They can do this by starting to appeal to the well-educated, wealthier areas of the South like NoVa, the Research Triangle, the I-35 Corridor, and Silicon Valley. How do we do this? Drop all this Tea Party/Libertarian and crap and go back to want the vast majority of middle class, White Americans want but don't know it: authoritarian neoconservatism with a technocratic twist. 
#SouthernStrategy2.0
NoVa and the Research Triangle are heavily dependent on federal dollars. Even if they can rebrand and get people to forget their Elmer Gantry schtick, how does the party of cutting government appeal to these folks? By I-35, I guess you mean Texas? The GOP is already doing fine down there. As for Silicon Valley, it's a highly creative and innovative sort of place. Lots of diversity too. Meanwhile, Republicans are so damn stuffy and crusty, and CA is such a lost cause for the GOP anyway. What they really need is Pennsylvania. Those all white suburbs in Bucks County looks like as good a place as any to try to work some magic.
Exactly, NoVA and the Research Triangle love to get money for their pet projects/contractors from Uncle Sam. Unfortunately, in the ongoing budget debates Republicans have been going after a Trojan horse: discretionary spending, which is exactly the kind of spending that places like NoVa depend on. Republicans can trade earmark bans and discretionary spending freezes for sensible, middle-of-the-road entitlement reform that could be supported by >70% of the electorate if they found the right spokespeople. I think that this kind of economic philosophy, one where the government plays an important role in research, technology, transportation, etc., while pursuing long-term reforms to help balance the budget is better for our economy and more electorally viable.
So, basically the GOP would need to:
1) Drop the anti-discretionary spending mumbo-jumbo for real, sensible entitlement reform.
2) Adopt the economic policy that it was known for in the 1950s: support for technology, science, and infrastructure by supporting research initiatives, especially at universities. This should help a lot with the Asian vote as well as in places like the Research Triangle and Silicon Valley.
3) De-emphasize social conservatism in their campaigns, without necessarily becoming more liberal or even libertarian. They need to keep their social conservatism in order to not lose any more appeal to Hispanic voters.
4) Steal some plays from the British Conservatives' playbook and become the "law and order" party to a larger extent then they are now. This plays well in the suburbs, which is where elections will be won for at least the next 40 years.
5) Find better spokespeople. This goes without saying.
The thread can be found, here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167211.0
