Republican OR primary results thread (polls “close” at 11pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Oregon is vote by mail, but ballots are due to be received by 8pm PT, which is 11pm ET.

No exit polls this week.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/or/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/oregon

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich average 14% in the primaries held before he dropped out.  He's currently at 16% in Oregon.  Maybe he would have done better if he'd dropped out before Iowa? 

[Mr. Morden]

Secret Democrat Kasich?

Are liberals still switching parties to vote for some right-winger who dropped out?

No.  I think it's just that Republicans with Democratic neighbors like Kasich better than Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I looked back at how Bush 2000, McCain 2008, and Romney 2012 did in primaries after all of their major opponents dropped out, as compared to how Trump is doing now.  Here are the ten worst performances by the presumptive Republican nominee in the past 20 years, after said nominee has seen every major rival drop out of the race (keep in mind that Keyes was still running until the end in 2000, as was Paul in 2012, but everyone else was already out of the race besides the presumptive nominee….in Trump’s case he doesn’t even have a Paul or a Keyes…he’s running unopposed, but still failing to reach 70%).

Trump in 2016: Nebraska 61.5%
Bush in 2000: Utah 63.3%
Romney in 2012: Indiana 64.6%
Bush in 2000: Colorado 64.7%
Romney in 2012: North Carolina 65.6%
Romney in 2012: South Dakota 66.2%
Trump in 2016: Oregon 66.8% (tentative, as they’re still counting votes)
Romney in 2012: Kentucky 66.8%
Romney in 2012: Arkansas 68.4%
Romney in 2012: Montana 68.4%

And we still have Washington next week, and then the June 7th primaries.  How many states will Trump have in the bottom 10 by the end?