How far will Trump drop? (user search)
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  How far will Trump drop? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How far will Trump drop?  (Read 2362 times)
Sbane
sbane
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« on: October 08, 2016, 09:56:38 PM »

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.
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Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,317


« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 10:13:09 PM »

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.

Pretty sure somewhere around a 10-point margin is what most are expecting out of this already. Which would be pretty close to a "landslide" (Obama 2008 was a 7.2 point margin)

My point is that the events themselves will only move the polls by 2 points. Almost nothing. Perhaps the reaction of the Republican party adds a couple more.
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