GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Person Man]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

This isn't really surprising. The Christian Right has always been built on hypocrisy. Do as I say not as I do. 

The Christian Right isn't a religious movement. It is a Nationalist movement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1578411443182977024

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1578420124373389312

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1578420124373389312

Not the best sign for a campaign a month before the election.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1578420124373389312

If they wanted to solve their issues, they should have fired the candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1578411443182977024

LOL, imagine being too toxic for Trump.

[Pollster]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

Yes. Focus groups usually never have more than 12 participants (and even that is large for a focus group) so it's impossible to be representative of anything, let alone geography in even a small state. Focus groups aren't designed to be representative and are intended only to be directional or informative, not predictive, and should never be the sole research tool used by any persuasive campaign (political or not). You will be hard pressed to find a focus group memo ever given to a client that doesn't have the words "qualitative takeaways are not statistically representative and should be confirmed with quantitative research before making high-stakes decisions" or something along those lines. That's part of what makes this focus group podcast (and Longwell's editorialization) so funny. There are a LOT of useful functions that focus groups provide, but what she's trying to do generally isn't it.

You won’t see it the other way around, unfortunately. I think that if you truly want something “representative,” a mix of qual and quant (usually in that order too) is absolutely crucial. Focus groups can help better design polling instruments and provide natural language for answers that more accurately reflects public opinion.

Definitely true. I can think of tons of times that direct quotes from focus group participants made into into messages we've tested in polls and eventually into ads. Very powerful combination of research tools.

[Buzz]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Walker ends up winning, what I'll never fully understand is this: Georgia Republicans were not short on options. They've still got a wide bench. And they went with Herschel Walker. Why?

[Horus]

Even if Walker ends up winning, what I'll never fully understand is this: Georgia Republicans were not short on options. They've still got a wide bench. And they went with Herschel Walker. Why?

He played college football and he's Black. In the eyes of the GOP that's all you need.

[Calthrina950]

Even if Walker ends up winning, what I'll never fully understand is this: Georgia Republicans were not short on options. They've still got a wide bench. And they went with Herschel Walker. Why?

He played college football and he's Black. In the eyes of the GOP that's all you need.

And he had Trump's endorsement. So that's another factor that worked in his favor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1578422277993291776

[brucejoel99]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1578448912104521729

[GeorgiaModerate]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1578448912104521729

If Trump stayed completely out of Georgia politics, Warnock probably wouldn't have won in 2020, and it would have been incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler running for re-election this year.

But yes, the truth is that Trump is a lousy politician.  He won his first election, at the highest level of government, which is certainly an impressive achievement, and it's made his fans think he could do no wrong.  However, Trump only won that due to an incredible series of breaks:

- A large and divided Republican field
- An unpopular Democratic opponent
- Russian-fueled social media manipulation and Wikileaks
- One-sided FBI leaks (Comey revealed that Clinton was under investigation by the FBI, but not that Trump was.)

And with all that, he still lost the popular vote and only won due to our unbalanced Electoral College system.  Then while in office, he accomplished far less than a Republican President should have been able to do with a trifecta, and managed to lose all three legs of it in four years -- something that hadn't happened since Herbert Hoover was President.  He's also left the Republican Party deeply divided and having lost, at least for now, two groups of high-propensity voters: highly educated voters, and suburban women.

I'm sure his fans here will jump on me for this, but Trump simply doesn't have good political skills.  He got lucky once, and that's it.  His meddling in this year's primaries is one of the main reasons the Republicans are currently on the short end of Senate winning probabilities.  This is not to say they definitely won't regain control, but with a better slate of candidates they'd be in a much stronger position.

Several people have said that Trump is a Democratic mole intended to destroy the Republican Party.  While I doubt this is his true motivation, he's had pretty much that effect.

[Horus]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1578448912104521729

If Trump stayed completely out of Georgia politics, Warnock probably wouldn't have won in 2020, and it would have been incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler running for re-election this year.

But yes, the truth is that Trump is a lousy politician.  He won his first election, at the highest level of government, which is certainly an impressive achievement, and it's made his fans think he could do no wrong.  However, Trump only won that due to an incredible series of breaks:

- A large and divided Republican field
- An unpopular Democratic opponent
- Russian-fueled social media manipulation and Wikileaks
- One-sided FBI leaks (Comey revealed that Clinton was under investigation by the FBI, but not that Trump was.)

And with all that, he still lost the popular vote and only won due to our unbalanced Electoral College system.  Then while in office, he accomplished far less than a Republican President should have been able to do with a trifecta, and managed to lose all three legs of it in four years -- something that hadn't happened since Herbert Hoover was President.  He's also left the Republican Party deeply divided and having lost, at least for now, two groups of high-propensity voters: highly educated voters, and suburban women.

I'm sure his fans here will jump on me for this, but Trump simply doesn't have good political skills.  He got lucky once, and that's it.  His meddling in this year's primaries is one of the main reasons the Republicans are currently on the short end of Senate winning probabilities.  This is not to say they definitely won't regain control, but with a better slate of candidates they'd be in a much stronger position.

Several people have said that Trump is a Democratic mole intended to destroy the Republican Party.  While I doubt this is his true motivation, he's had pretty much that effect.

Trump has good political instincts for his own campaigns which is why he won once and made things much closer than expected the second time.

However when it comes to candidate selection he's terrible.

[xavier110]

I told everyone to vote for Gary Black, nobody listened.  Now we got a brain dead idiot

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1578448912104521729

If Trump stayed completely out of Georgia politics, Warnock probably wouldn't have won in 2020, and it would have been incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler running for re-election this year.

But yes, the truth is that Trump is a lousy politician.  He won his first election, at the highest level of government, which is certainly an impressive achievement, and it's made his fans think he could do no wrong.  However, Trump only won that due to an incredible series of breaks:

- A large and divided Republican field
- An unpopular Democratic opponent
- Russian-fueled social media manipulation and Wikileaks
- One-sided FBI leaks (Comey revealed that Clinton was under investigation by the FBI, but not that Trump was.)

And with all that, he still lost the popular vote and only won due to our unbalanced Electoral College system.  Then while in office, he accomplished far less than a Republican President should have been able to do with a trifecta, and managed to lose all three legs of it in four years -- something that hadn't happened since Herbert Hoover was President.  He's also left the Republican Party deeply divided and having lost, at least for now, two groups of high-propensity voters: highly educated voters, and suburban women.

I'm sure his fans here will jump on me for this, but Trump simply doesn't have good political skills.  He got lucky once, and that's it.  His meddling in this year's primaries is one of the main reasons the Republicans are currently on the short end of Senate winning probabilities.  This is not to say they definitely won't regain control, but with a better slate of candidates they'd be in a much stronger position.

Several people have said that Trump is a Democratic mole intended to destroy the Republican Party.  While I doubt this is his true motivation, he's had pretty much that effect.

Trump has good political instincts for his own campaigns which is why he won once and made things much closer than expected the second time.

However when it comes to candidate selection he's terrible.

As a narcissist he’s good at self preservation.

[Gass3268]

For someone who claims to be pro-life, Herschel Walker really likes abortion.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1578490223926747136?s=46&t=ZZNX8FDXoT7zBQ...

[new_patomic]

And some accuse liberals of being pro-abortion...  sheesh

[Person Man]

This guy is addicted to abortions! He’s not in love with you. He’s in love with abortions!

[KaiserDave]

It’s over

[KaiserDave]

This one is so much worse for him too oh my god we are witnessing total implosion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is also corroboration by a second source and not just the Daily Beast.

I won't say it's over yet, but Herschel is down by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and just fumbled the ball.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/llerer/status/1578489545905307648

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And yet I’ll bet $10,000 that we don’t see the kind of abandonment that we saw about Roy Moore.

[Ferguson97]

And yet I’ll bet $10,000 that we don’t see the kind of abandonment that we saw about Roy Moore.

I mean yes, being a hypocrite about abortion is nowhere near as bad as pedophilia, so this is probably a fairly safe bet.