2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania (user search)
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  2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania  (Read 42477 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,169


« on: August 12, 2021, 08:30:14 PM »

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2021, 12:25:13 AM »

How many votes does each PA seat need to roughly be now?  I saw on that map 750k but that seems low.  Allegheny is now 1.25m. 

If the districts need to be greatly expanded then it would seem to me that 12, 15, 16, 13 and 14 (which appear very rural) probably need to shrink down to 4 districts if the map is done fairly.  Eyeballing it, it looks like almost every single county in those districts lost population even as the state as a whole gained.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2021, 12:54:12 AM »

The PA high court may be Dem, but in the case of a deadlock, below is to my mind the most reasonable least change map from the one the court drew in 2018, and the Dems have a problem. It looks like the Dems might lose 2 seats and the Pubs pick up 1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/64b8193a-0849-45ac-805a-b004e03fe853




Why would we assume they'd do this just because it's least change?  Is there any kind of rule in their constitution that says that should be a factor?  If they are losing a full district then they are going to have to make some big changes regardless.
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