Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[KingSweden]

Barrow is a huge, huge recruiting coup for SoS. Terrific get by GA Dems

[KingSweden]

I'm encouraged that most of Evans' endorsements are from local politicians while Abrams' only has the endorsements of the Georgia Democrats in Congress and outside interest groups. I was pleased to see a group of a dozen black legislators come out and endorse Evans. I was worried that the primary would be racialized which would hurt Evans, but it looks like those involved in local politics understand that Abrams is unelectable.

Doesn’t look too great that Jimmy Carter also walked back what seemed like an endorsement.

Of Abrams?

Yeah. He introduced her somewhere as something to the effect of “hopefully the next governor of GA”. IIRC the next day,  his office put out a statement saying that he hadn’t made up his mind and will support whoever gets the nom.

Yikes!

This race will certainly be interesting as it unfolds. I was done with Abrams after she refused to condemn the protesters who shouted down at Evans at the Netroots Conference holding up signs inferring she didn't support black women and compared her to Betsy Devos. When asked why they didn't like Evans they couldn't name one vote, policy decision, or otherwise. Disgusting.

Yeah that was an ugly episode. Another exhibit in why intersectional theory has few applications outside of sociology classrooms

[KingSweden]

I'm encouraged that most of Evans' endorsements are from local politicians while Abrams' only has the endorsements of the Georgia Democrats in Congress and outside interest groups. I was pleased to see a group of a dozen black legislators come out and endorse Evans. I was worried that the primary would be racialized which would hurt Evans, but it looks like those involved in local politics understand that Abrams is unelectable.

Doesn’t look too great that Jimmy Carter also walked back what seemed like an endorsement.

Of Abrams?

Yeah. He introduced her somewhere as something to the effect of “hopefully the next governor of GA”. IIRC the next day,  his office put out a statement saying that he hadn’t made up his mind and will support whoever gets the nom.

Yikes!

This race will certainly be interesting as it unfolds. I was done with Abrams after she refused to condemn the protesters who shouted down at Evans at the Netroots Conference holding up signs inferring she didn't support black women and compared her to Betsy Devos. When asked why they didn't like Evans they couldn't name one vote, policy decision, or otherwise. Disgusting.

I feel the same way; it'll be an interesting one to watch. I'm all in for Evans right now, and it's certainly encouraging that she's gotten the support of so many locals. She seems to have her priorities in order- I like that she's making education reform the important topic that it should be and keeping to economic issues.

That’s what made my mind up too. There’s no excuse for the way those people acted and whether Abrams likes it or not , they were her supporters. She owes Evans an apology for it. Abrams seems to be only focusing on black women. Statistically they are the large chunk of D voters in Georgia, you have to reach out to win on a bigger stage. Evans seems to be running on more broad stuff like free technical school and universal pre-k 4. I actually started donating to Evans this week.

That's actually a more progressive platform from Evans than I expected. And yeah, Abrams' silence isn't good. Which is too bad because from what I've heard she's been a solid legislative leader and done hard work rebuilding the party post-Murphy/Barnes/Cleland

[KingSweden]

Abrams announced a new campaign office in Savannah at the end of the month, with more offices planned to open in Cobb County, Rome, Sumter County, Hinesville, Stockbridge, Augusta, Columbus, and Albany.

She needs an office in Macon and Athens!

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-abrams-kicks-her-ground-game/1EpNI8EgxAgBa8Im5pnGUM/

I gotta say she has an impressive apparatus

[KingSweden]

Remarkably tone deaf

[KingSweden]

Pardon... ITP and OTP?

[KingSweden]

Finally! 34 year old Fulton County Asst. District Attorney Charles Bailey is running for the AG Democratic nomination. He already has the backing of Jason Carter, Teresa Tomlinson, and Minority Leader Bob Trammell.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/carr-draws-democratic-challenger-georgia-race/9fuFPMqLauyxfwtpVhirML/

A couple of things he will be running on is pay raises for law enforcement officials, suing pharmaceutical companies that intentionally marketed drugs to foster the opioid crisis, and sue to protect Georgia's coast from Trump's offshore drilling plans.

Nice get!

[KingSweden]

TFW you attack your state’s iconic brand name companies, one of the largest airlines in the world and one of the largest employers in your state, to virtue signal to the NRA

Stacey (Insert) thanks you for the campaign check Delta just cut her, Casey

[KingSweden]

The national Democratic party awarded Georgia Democrats a grant of $100,000 to mobilize black rural turnout ahead of the mid-terms. Its the first grant of its kind. 

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-dems-plan-initiative-mobilize-rural-black-voters/uNWYowzwKmGSoYMmPrJMQJ/

OMG! The Democrats are finally getting that non-white people live in rural areas.

Very cool!

[KingSweden]

Interesting data! I didn't take into account that he may have voters who would cross over and vote R just for him*. Well needed reminder to take off my partisan goggles sometimes.

I do believe the Abrams campaign will be a positive as she attempts to bring out a ton of D-leaning low info voters** who wouldn't know Greene from a hole-in-the-wall and they'll just select the D candidate.

*Interesting stat about how well Republicans do with blacks in areas that have a heavy military presence.

**Her GOTV operation will center on these type of voters.

I believe black veterans (of which there are a ton of, its a tremendous road into the middle class) skew more GOP than blacks as a whole, as one would suspect, but I have no numbers to back this up.

[KingSweden]

I know signage doesn't mean much, but I've been struck by how few signs there have been for gubernatorial candidates compared to downballot races.  In my usual haunts (northern suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta) I've seen a grand total of 1 Hill, 2 Cagle, and 2 Kemp signs.  But the roads are cluttered with signs for State House and Senate candidates.

Nobody likes the Governor candidates, apparently

[KingSweden]

Watching the GA debate now. Not impressed by either candidate (first two questions are about how a women is fit to be governor and a black women could be governor... say what you're for) but then again I'm a white western populist. Not exactly a key constitute in the peach state democratic primary.

Edit: Watching the whole thing, both seem decent all in all, and glad to see issues like gentrification brought up or even minor stuff like making it illegal for employers to ask on pay history raised. If I lived in GA, I'd probably narrowly vote for Evans. Closer to me socially and economically than Abrams. Traditional logic says Evans is more electable but I think Abrams could get someone like John Burrow SOS due to his crossover appeal and higher black turnout with Abrams.

Also I don't think either Abrams and Evans are either personally very wealthy. I actually believed a word of what they say but I'm also not sure if they're 100% ready to be governor at least not yet.

Good insights! What did they say about gentrification?

[KingSweden]

Attacking Abrams over “natural hair” is, uh...

[KingSweden]

A D swing of 13 matches what we’ve seen elsewhere...

Not that primary results are all that predictive

[KingSweden]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

That’s an in-kind contribution to his campaign, more or less

[KingSweden]

Democrats: Which Stacey do you prefer and why?

Not a GA primary voter but: I think both are flawed in their own way, and I’m skeptical either defeats Cagle in November.

[KingSweden]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

That would obviously have substantial VRA implications for Sanford Bishop, I imagine. What does rural Hispanic growth in GA look like?

For GM...

A somewhat interesting local election: there was a referendum in the southeastern part of Forsyth County on whether to incorporate a new city, Sharon Springs, which would have had a population of about 50,000.  The bill allowing for the possible incorporation required at least 57.5% of voters in favor to pass; this was a negotiated compromise between a simple majority (which has been used in past cityhood votes in Georgia) and a 2/3 threshold, which was requested by some state legislators.

The vote was 54% to 46% in favor, so the incorporation failed -- although it would have passed under the standard used for previous similar votes.

Source

What is the complaint/opposition legislators have against the incorporation of Sharon Springs?

[KingSweden]

I had voted for Evans because I fully doubted Abrams' GOTV setup and her appeal beyond the Democratic base.  I had thought that the big uptick for Democrats in the early voting in the north Atlanta suburbs would be highly favorable for Evans.

I now realize this is not the case.  Abrams dominated throughout the state, and the primary vote between the two parties was the closest it has been in several years. 

Even though I think it will be difficult for her to win, she has the ability to make an impact on making Georgia a two-party state again.  She has to do whatever possible to make inroads in those areas that are going to be very hostile to Democrats (not to mention a black woman).  I keep bringing this up--it's the Obama strategy of having some impact on rural Iowa which allowed him to cut the expected deficits in those areas and to win the state twice in 2008 and 2012.

At the very least, it will make the downstream races very competitive--with good chances to pick up the Lieutenant Governor (perhaps the most powerful position in the state) and SOS.

Does the LG in Georgia enjoy similar powers to the LGs in Mississippi and Texas?

[KingSweden]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

Update: Bullock has dropped out in favor of Erick Allen, the candidate she defeated in the primary:

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The bus went under 50 and exploded, clearly

[KingSweden]

I’ve read about Tom Murphy - sounds like he was quite the character.

Anyways, thanks for the detailed response!

[KingSweden]

Clay Tippins has Cagle on audio admitting he backed an education bill he thought was bad policy because it would hurt a group that would have poured money into Hill's campaign if he made the run-off.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/2-investigates/secret-recording-cagle-says-he-backed-controversial-bill-for-politics-not-policy/764972739

Get on it Kemp!

Lol what a colossal mistake on Cagle’s part. This is gonna be all Kemp talks about for the next six weeks

It would be malpractice for Kemp not to hammer him over this

[KingSweden]

Having read the transcript, it’s actually worse than I imagined.

[KingSweden]

Primary: Lean Cagle->Tossup

IMO this is generous to Cagle

[KingSweden]

I’m 100% comfortable calling Kemp the clear favorite now

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting