How did Dewey almost win Philadelphia in 1948??!!

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia shifted from being a Republican bastion to a Democratic bastion overnight between 1932 and 1936.  The city had voted between 58%and 60% for FDR in the next 3 elections. Post Eisenhower, Democrats won the city by at least 30 points in every election but 1972 and 1980. After 1932, the city never came close to voting GOP again...

Except for in 1948. In an election in which Dewey lost the popular vote by 4 points and Truman generally performed very well in Northeastern cities, Truman only won this city 48.8% to 48.1%, a tiny margin of 0.7% Compared to 1944, the Democratic vote decreased from 496k to 433k. Dewey's vote increased from 346k to 426k. This shows that Dewey very clearly appealed to the area, with a large amount of 1944 FDR - 1948 Dewey voters.

In 1952, the country shifted from a 4 point Dem victory to a 11 point GOP victory. Eisenhower increased GOP margins in virtually the entire country but did especially well in the Northwest and in urban areas. While the nation swung GOP by 15 points (and the Northeast likely by an even larger amount), Philadelphia somehow swung against the GOP by 16 points! Philadelphia trended 31 points Democratic! Stevenson won the city 58.1%-41.4%. The GOP's vote declined from 426k to 397k, while the Democratic vote increased from 433k to 557k. Somehow, it seems that Philadelphia contained a large number of Dewey-Stevenson voters! And Eisenhower only performed 3 points better in 1956, and only in 1972 did the GOP come even close to matching Ike's margin.


Why did Philadelphia, unlike everywhere else in the country, seem to contain a large amount of Dewey-Stevenson voters? Did the city's politics massively shift in these four years like it did 1932-1936? If so, why? Was Dewey an amazing candidate in this city somehow? Was Eisenhower a bad candidate here somehow? Did Truman anger people here? Was Stevenson beloved here? Was there a huge demographic change? The results here in 1948 are completely mind blowing considering Ike's underperformance, so I would love some Atlas investigating done into this.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

In which case we should see a huge numerical increase of Eisenhower votes in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A backlash to Truman's free trade policies possibly? Republican support for tarrifs was part of the Republican machine and performance in the then mostly industrial city pre-1936.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

In which case we should see a huge numerical increase of Eisenhower votes in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

Well, that's what happened.

Ike got 11k more votes than Dewey in Bucks and 30k mores votes in Montgomery.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

In which case we should see a huge numerical increase of Eisenhower votes in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

Well, that's what happened.

Ike got 11k more votes than Dewey in Bucks and 30k mores votes in Montgomery.

I guess that solves one piece of the puzzle.

[DINGO Joe]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

In which case we should see a huge numerical increase of Eisenhower votes in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

Well, that's what happened.

Ike got 11k more votes than Dewey in Bucks and 30k mores votes in Montgomery.

I guess that solves one piece of the puzzle.

Not really, as 1952 had a huge surge in turnout too.  Philly had an increase of more than 100,000 voters in 1952 and Stevenson's vote increase in Bucks and Montgomery too.

[Alcibiades]

Maybe it's due to the early wave of white flight which began shortly after WWII

In which case we should see a huge numerical increase of Eisenhower votes in Bucks and Montgomery counties.

Well, that's what happened.

Ike got 11k more votes than Dewey in Bucks and 30k mores votes in Montgomery.

I guess that solves one piece of the puzzle.

Not really, as 1952 had a huge surge in turnout too.  Philly had an increase of more than 100,000 voters in 1952 and Stevenson's vote increase in Bucks and Montgomery too.

Yeah, it definitely seems like a substantial portion of voters in Philly were Roosevelt ‘44-Dewey ‘48 voters. Why, I have no idea.

[SingingAnalyst]

So comparing 1944 - 1948 - 1952 in Philly, 1948 stands out as oddly and exceptionally Republican.

Can anyone look at wards, precincts, etc.? Was Henry Wallace much of a factor? (Doesn't look like it). How did Black areas, Catholic areas, Jewish areas, etc. vote?  I have read that nationally Jewish vote went 75-10 for Truman and the Black vote over 80% for Truman; was Philly different?

For what it's worth, the opposite happened in Boston: Truman received 70% in Suffolk County, several points higher than FDR in 1944 or Stevenson in 1952.

Was it as simple as a Phillies - Cardinals tiff? Recall that Boston-area voters, in 1986, may have expressed their frustration over their World Series loss by voting against the state's seat belt law: Question 5 to retain the seat belt law lost with 53.7% No votes, with every Boston-area county voting No and most outstate counties voting Yes.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

[TDAS04]

Republicans controlled the city government until 1951.  That may not explain 1936-1944, but it may explain the swing between 1948 and 1952.

[E-Dawg]

Republicans controlled the city government until 1951.  That may not explain 1936-1944, but it may explain the swing between 1948 and 1952.

I dont find 1936-1944 weird, sicne FDR won in landslides during those elections. What happened in 1951 that lead to Republicans losing control? Was there a hige political shift in the city that explains Eisenhower's underperformance?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

So comparing 1944 - 1948 - 1952 in Philly, 1948 stands out as oddly and exceptionally Republican.

Can anyone look at wards, precincts, etc.? Was Henry Wallace much of a factor? (Doesn't look like it). How did Black areas, Catholic areas, Jewish areas, etc. vote?  I have read that nationally Jewish vote went 75-10 for Truman and the Black vote over 80% for Truman; was Philly different?

For what it's worth, the opposite happened in Boston: Truman received 70% in Suffolk County, several points higher than FDR in 1944 or Stevenson in 1952.

Was it as simple as a Phillies - Cardinals tiff? Recall that Boston-area voters, in 1986, may have expressed their frustration over their World Series loss by voting against the state's seat belt law: Question 5 to retain the seat belt law lost with 53.7% No votes, with every Boston-area county voting No and most outstate counties voting Yes.

I looked at the data for Question 5 and the results aren't particularly anomalous. Western Mass always votes that way and Barnstable has a granola streak from time to time.

[E-Dawg]

Anyone want to attempt to describe a Philidelphia Dewey-Stevenson voter?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

So in 1948 the Republican machine managed to make the city vote close against Truman, but in 1952 the dominant Democratic machine managed to deliver Stevenson a 15 point win despite the national swing? Did the Democrats in 1952 manage to turn out a lot of previous non voters? Since Ike had a raw vote 30k less than Dewey, were there some Dewey-Stevenson voters for whatever reason?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

So in 1948 the Republican machine managed to make the city vote close against Truman, but in 1952 the dominant Democratic machine managed to deliver Stevenson a 15 point win despite the national swing? Did the Democrats in 1952 manage to turn out a lot of previous non voters? Since Ike had a raw vote 30k less than Dewey, were there some Dewey-Stevenson voters for whatever reason?

Think about who the candidates were and their backgrounds and then think about how that would appeal to say:

1. African-Americans
2. White Ethnics
3. WASPs
4. Jewish Voters

Truman did well with many of these voters in most places but it is possible that him being a border state bumpkin enabled the GOP machine to pull off one last hurrah "almost" against him.

Compared to the egg head Stevenson who was if anything ahead of his time in terms of the New Deal and what the New Deal was doing in terms of College Educated Urban WASPs (Kevin Phillips talks about this liberalization process of Urban WASPs as well as the diversification of that group post New Deal and post war). Combine that with FDR legacy among unions, continued strong support among African-Americans and possibly localized improvement with Jewish Voters (if the machine still had some influence there in the 40s).

Its not so much that a new machine replaced the old over night, but a new electoral paradigm washed the machine away and helped carry Democrats to victory city wide in 1951. Subsequent White Flight would then push the city to become solidly Democratic and the Democratic machine with its own corruption would take shape once most of the reformers had moved on to other positions by the mid 60s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1951_Philadelphia_municipal_election#Mayor

Though it should be stated that Republicans came close to winning Philly in 74 for Senator, with Schweiker under 4,500 votes away from winning the City, and Specter outright won the city in 1980.

[E-Dawg]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

So in 1948 the Republican machine managed to make the city vote close against Truman, but in 1952 the dominant Democratic machine managed to deliver Stevenson a 15 point win despite the national swing? Did the Democrats in 1952 manage to turn out a lot of previous non voters? Since Ike had a raw vote 30k less than Dewey, were there some Dewey-Stevenson voters for whatever reason?

Think about who the candidates were and their backgrounds and then think about how that would appeal to say:

1. African-Americans
2. White Ethnics
3. WASPs
4. Jewish Voters

Truman did well with many of these voters in most places but it is possible that him being a border state bumpkin enabled the GOP machine to pull off one last hurrah "almost" against him.

Compared to the egg head Stevenson who was if anything ahead of his time in terms of the New Deal and what the New Deal was doing in terms of College Educated Urban WASPs (Kevin Phillips talks about this liberalization process of Urban WASPs as well as the diversification of that group post New Deal and post war). Combine that with FDR legacy among unions, continued strong support among African-Americans and possibly localized improvement with Jewish Voters (if the machine still had some influence there in the 40s).

Its not so much that a new machine replaced the old over night, but a new electoral paradigm washed the machine away and helped carry Democrats to victory city wide in 1951. Subsequent White Flight would then push the city to become solidly Democratic and the Democratic machine with its own corruption would take shape once most of the reformers had moved on to other positions by the mid 60s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1951_Philadelphia_municipal_election#Mayor

Though it should be stated that Republicans came close to winning Philly in 74 for Senator, with Schweiker under 4,500 votes away from winning the City, and Specter outright won the city in 1980.

Did Philiadelphia experience any significant white flight between 1948 and 1952?

[sguberman]

I saw a tweet like a year ago that said that the Philadelphia Democratic machine didn't activate until 1952 and that is why Philly swung so much.

[RBH]

First sentence of the UP report, dated November 3rd, 1948

Philadelphia, by pre-election standards a bastion of Republicanism, voted against the GOP by handing President Truman an unofficial 6746 margin over Governor Thomas E. Dewey.

Article noted the Democratic sweep was unexpected due to voter registration figures.

Of course, trying to search for more about Philadelphia in the 1948 election is complicated by both parties holding their 1948 conventions in Philadelphia

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

First sentence of the UP report, dated November 3rd, 1948

Philadelphia, by pre-election standards a bastion of Republicanism, voted against the GOP by handing President Truman an unofficial 6746 margin over Governor Thomas E. Dewey.

Article noted the Democratic sweep was unexpected due to voter registration figures.

Of course, trying to search for more about Philadelphia in the 1948 election is complicated by both parties holding their 1948 conventions in Philadelphia

Dewey really expected a much better performance in the Northeast and his under performance was the first sign of trouble and spelled doom for the old school electoral calculus used by Republicans to this point.

It cannot be stated how much the New Deal and subsequent shifts upended traditional political maps and destroyed Urban Republicanism.

[Flyersfan232]

Philadelphia voted Republican in the 1946 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, FWIW.

Republicans won all of the Philly Congressional seats in 1946 as well, though a number of them did flip back in 48.

Any idea what changed in Phily's politics between 1948 and 1952?

The downfall of the Republican city machine and its replacement by as yet unbroken Democratic dominance. The Mayoralty flipped in 1952 by about 100,000 votes if memory serves me and the Democratic mayor Joseph Clark went on to become a Senator for two terms from 1957 until 1969. I think a big culprit is generational change and demographic shifts post New Deal finally caught up to the Republican machine and caused it to collapse. There was also internal corruption and other standard issues that tend to cripple machine operations in time.

the gop were still able to contest philly for a while after till the 80s with a dead cat bouce because of streets in the late 90s and early 2000s they elected da as well who was arlen specter who won the city in 1980.

[Chips]

I saw a tweet like a year ago that said that the Philadelphia Democratic machine didn't activate until 1952 and that is why Philly swung so much.

Wow.