2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Cinemark]

For some reason, Nevada is always treated like red headed stepchild of the early states. It's pretty dumb especially considering what an important role it played in the 2016 Democratic Primary.

After the fact. But it really didnt receive much press while it was occuring and was quickly drowned out by Hillary's 47% win a week later.

[Cinemark]

New Iowa Suffolk poll taken entirely after the last debate will be out tomorrow morning. I believe it counts as a qualifying poll.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1186008654996217859

[Cinemark]

Could be a very important poll for Klobuchar. She was at 2% in the last Quinnipiac poll. If she gets a 1 point boost, shes in the next debate.

[Cinemark]

So where is this NV poll at?

4pm eastern.

[Cinemark]

Probably a primary poll tomorrow then. Last month, they released Trump's numbers on the 1st and the Dem primary numbers on the 2nd.

[Cinemark]

A national Monmouth poll just came out:

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1191747172175364097?s=21

New primary numbers are presumably being held back for release soon.

I don't even particularly like Trump but the media bias against him is so laughable.
"Little change in Donald Trump job approval rating", yet he went from -13% to -9%, which is a decrease in unapproval rating by 31%

Monmouth points out that Trump has been a very small range this year. What they are suggesting is that the movement is largely MoE and Trump's numbers really havent moved. They're not dismissing the movement, just looking at the long term trend.

[Cinemark]

Thank goodness, we might get some actually clarity in what the hell is going on in Iowa.

[Cinemark]

Yang is hyping up good news in the coming week. So, he's either full of it, or we are getting a new poll soon.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1203783533912842240

[Cinemark]

We are getting a national Monmouth poll tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1204070755287412738

This might get Yang into the debate if he's lucky, their last poll had him at 3% nationally so a small bump will do it.

Gabbard more than likely wont get anything from this poll as she was at, *check notes*, 0% in Monmouth's last national poll.

[Cinemark]

Theres a Quinnipiac national poll coming out at 3 today.

[Cinemark]

https://twitter.com/jaselzer/status/1212815962921164802

[Cinemark]

We are getting a CBS poll of Iowa and New Hampshire at 10:30. It's probably YouGov but it will count towards qualifications.

[Cinemark]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1216718493191757827

[Cinemark]

From drought to downpour.

[Cinemark]

Monmouth national poll tomorrow.

[Cinemark]

10 colors I can see
pink
green
purple
blue
grey
red
yellow
light blue
dark blue
dark pink
brown (page county)

one color could be for don't knows/refused.

I think one color is also for people who got filtered out.

[Cinemark]

Well, there goes my Saturday night.

[Cinemark]

CNN tweeted out a statement saying the poll was canceled then immediately deleted it. Maybe they are trying to track down the issue instead of just trashing the whole thing.

[Cinemark]

The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening.

Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

The Register has published the Iowa Poll for 76 years, and it is considered the gold standard in political polling. Selzer & Co., which conducts the poll, is recognized for its excellence in polling. It is imperative whenever an Iowa Poll is released that there is confidence that the data accurately reflects Iowans’ opinions.

— Carol Hunter

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/02/01/des-moines-register-cnn-cancels-release-iowa-poll-over-respondent-concerns/4637168002/

[Cinemark]

Well can we still count on Emerson?

And we're getting a YouGov poll tomorrow....

*sigh*

[Cinemark]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223791180376346625

Patrick Murray, the polling director of Monmouth, isnt entirely convinced of the situation.

[Cinemark]

This really highlights a glaring weakness for Buttigieg I haven't see anyone mention yet all cycle. His name is hard to pronounce. Voters like a candidate with a smooth, silky name that just rolls off the tongue like Trump, Sanders, Biden or Warren. Buttigieg? No. Unfair, but true.

tbf Klobuchar might have similar issues as well....

It's really easy to "mispronounce candidate names", but let's face it---- it's not like any of these Democrats really have similar names....

I guess if you are older and hearing impaired you might have a hard time between Bernie and Biden for Christs sake.....

Nah. Klobuchar isnt really hard to pronounce. I've yet to hear a television host or radio broadcaster mispronounce her name. On the other hand, I still hear multiple pronunciations of Buttigieg on a daily basis.

[Cinemark]

Maybe Pete just screwed Amy out of an Iowa upset.

Could be. The candidates that stood most to benefit seemed to be Klobuchar (who has been surging in other polls) and Bernie (who led the last DMR poll and has also seemed to be surging in other polls).

The candidates that stood the most to lose were Buttigieg and Warren, both of whom seemed to be losing momentum and shedding support.

On the other hand, Emerson has shown some very good numbers for Klobuchar this cycle. While I find their methodology to be lacking, I fully expect them(along with YouGov) to fill the oxygen taken up by the missing Selzer poll. If either have good numbers for Klobuchar(or any candidate for that matter), I assume the same effect could happen.

[Cinemark]

On the other hand, Emerson has shown some very good numbers for Klobuchar this cycle. While I find their methodology to be lacking, I fully expect them(along with YouGov) to fill the oxygen taken up by the missing Selzer poll. If either have good numbers for Klobuchar(or any candidate for that matter), I assume the same effect could happen.

Actually, Buttigieg was 2nd in the most recent Emerson Iowa poll... which is just about the best result that Buttigieg has gotten recently.

Awfully convenient for Buttigieg.

Nope, Buttigieg was 5th in the last Emerson poll.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-sanders-solidifies-frontrunner-status-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

Side note, Emerson was closer to the final results in the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus than Selzer. They did underestimate Sanders by alot though. And completely missed Ben Carson in forth.