2020 Poll Hype Thread

[GeneralMacArthur]

Warren 24%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 16%
Sanders 12%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 4%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 2%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Delaney 1%
Bullock 1%
The rest 0%

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why is this still stickied?  Monmouth NH Poll came out like two weeks ago and wasn't even that "hype" of a poll in the first place (Seltzer is the only poll worth getting hyped about).

That this is stickied rather than the Buttigieg campaign thread is just silly.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why is this still stickied?  Monmouth NH Poll came out like two weeks ago and wasn't even that "hype" of a poll in the first place (Seltzer is the only poll worth getting hyped about).

That this is stickied rather than the Buttigieg campaign thread is just silly.

We had this in 2016 too, it will become more important next year, but it's basically just a heads up for people when polls are gonna come out soon.

I approve of a general poll hype thread being stickied.  Just thought it was silly that it was for the Monmouth Poll specifically.

But Buttigieg's campaign should be stickied.  He has the third-most money, fourth-best poll numbers, he's ahead of Sanders in Iowa and on an upward trajectory.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Monmouth really comes out of nowhere and gives Yang/Gabbard a qualifying poll at the 11th hour I’ll be pissed. We need to be clearing the stage of candidates that have no chance.

Apparently it's not qualifying for Gabbard, as she's now suddenly decided to bravely take a stand by boycotting the debate she wasn't invited to.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

Fair enough. We do need more polls, however.

I agree.  It is Christmas, though.  This is the calm before an inundation of Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I do think it's a big loss to delete the entire poll.

Maybe you just put an asterisk next to the Buttigieg number.

[GeneralMacArthur]

This really highlights a glaring weakness for Buttigieg I haven't see anyone mention yet all cycle. His name is hard to pronounce. Voters like a candidate with a smooth, silky name that just rolls off the tongue like Trump, Sanders, Biden or Warren. Buttigieg? No. Unfair, but true.

tbf Klobuchar might have similar issues as well....

It's really easy to "mispronounce candidate names", but let's face it---- it's not like any of these Democrats really have similar names....

I guess if you are older and hearing impaired you might have a hard time between Bernie and Biden for Christs sake.....

Nah. Klobuchar isnt really hard to pronounce. I've yet to hear a television host or radio broadcaster mispronounce her name. On the other hand, I still hear multiple pronunciations of Buttigieg on a daily basis.

I actually don't know whether it's tchar or ssshar, or klob-a-char vs klob-you-char.  I've heard both.

[GeneralMacArthur]

where did it leak or are you all just trolling? also links?

seems like if the calls were recorded they could go back and find out how big the issue really was. though i think if it was that easy they would be able to say?

It's 80% trolling and 20% people lying to try to create a false narrative.

Nobody actually knows what the results are.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Grynbaum is a warhawk, establishment Biden supporter.  
https://twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1178390034128523265?lang=en

This is not about Buttigieg.  This about Biden.  Biden is getting a$$ kicked by Sanders.

For those who don't click links, the "warhawk establishment Biden supporter" tweet is the Biden campaign's letter asking networks to stop bringing on Rudy Giuliani.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So based on the results we've seen over the last few days, in summary:

Sanders is either securing an easy double-digit victory or stuck in the high-teens.
Biden is either winning a stunning upset or finishing in fifth place and unviable.
Klobuchar is either surging to a last-minute power finish or mired in the single digits.
Warren is either sitting pretty in the low-20s or stuck in fifth place and unviable.
Andrew Yang is either at 10% and close to winning delegates or at 3% and an afterthought.

One thing we do know for sure though:  Pete Buttigieg is at 16%.

[GeneralMacArthur]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's probably something like

PA +5
OH +1
MOE +/- 5.5

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's probably something like

PA +5
OH +1
MOE +/- 5.5

Margin of Error acts in both directions, the margin of error indicates the error on estimates for each individual candidate, so a margin of error of 5.5 means a candidate with 50% support has a 95% confidence level that the individual candidate's support is between 44.5-55.5%, thus anything within 11% in margin between candidates can be considered within the margin of error. Assuming the pollster isn't incorrectly interpreting the margin of error to be applied in one direction (which would be a grave error on their part), it should imply that Biden's lead is high single digits/low double digits in WI/MI and anywhere between low and mid single digits in PA and OH. Their last series of polling had MOE of about 4% for reference. Pollster made a clarification that MI is outside MOE, WI just outside MOE, and PA is a larger lead than OH.

In that case, assuming a 4% MOE again, the results will probably be something like:

MI +10
WI +8
PA +5/6
OH +1

[GeneralMacArthur]

Trafalgar polls don't count bro

[GeneralMacArthur]

NYT/Siena Alaska prediction:

Trump 27, Biden 24

Sullivan 16, Gross 9

standard amount of undecideds

[GeneralMacArthur]

Not sure where to post this, but: today, the Redsk--uh...Football Team Rule comes into play.  

For the uninitiated, the rule is a factitious relationship between the results of the last Washington Football Team (formerly Redskins) game before a Presidential Election and the results of that election.  

If Washington wins, the incumbent party remains in the White House.  If Washington loses, the incumbent party is ousted from the White House.  Since 1932, the rule has applied in all but four elections (1932, 2004, 2012, and 2016).  

Washington currently leads Dallas 9-3 at the end of the 1st quarter (and they have next week off).  

Yes yes, false correlation and all.  But if y'all want Biden to win, y'all better root for the Cowboys.  

Washington is dominating the Cowboys and Andy Dalton just got a really bad injury and Cowboys are down to their third-string QB, Ben Danucci.  Not looking good for Biden!  Fortunately this is the WFT, not the Redskins, who don't exist anymore.