I never went on Intrade so I don't know how they posted numbers. So I'll just post what the Persons % chance of victory was on the day in question
1912- Wilson 70% TR 25% Taft 5%
1936- FDR 85% Landon 15%
1948- Dewey 65% Truman 34 % Wallace 1%
1960- Nixon 53% Kennedy 47%
1968- Nixon 55% Humphrey 44% Wallace 1%
1976 Carter 54% Ford 46%
1980 Reagan 55% Carter 44% Anderson 1%
1992 Clinton 68% Bush 25% Perot 7%
1976 sounds about right. For 1960, I'd say Kennedy in the high 50s given what the electoral college looked like. For 1968, I'd put Nixon a little higher and for 1980 , I'd put Reagan a lot higher. The electoral math looked really tough for Carter even though he was running about even in national vote polls. More like high 70s for Clinton in 1992. Bush really had no EV path.
