Puerto Rico statehood referendum 2020

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are so many people undecided in every poll of this? 

There are quite a few people who don't have any strong preference between Statehood and Commonwealth and who are uncertain what impact, if any, it would have on them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

Weirdly enough, it's not the independence/free association option that's off the table, it's the option to maintain the current commonwealth status. So once again, the pro-Statehood NPP is stacking the deck. Given previous referenda, it's pretty clear that the only two politically viable options are Statehood or continuation of the Commonwealth. Any referendum that's going to enjoy wide acceptance both inside and outside Puerto Rico should be a straight out choice between the two options, but yet once again, the NPP has refused that option. It's almost as if they think the people of Puerto Rico will vote against Statehood if it's done that way.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Color me extremely skeptical. The only way that these poll numbers make any sort of logical sense is if people mistakenly think Statehood is going to see Puerto Rico's existing debt be assumed by the Federal government.  Even H. R. 4901 is quite explicit that the State will inherit the Commonwealth's debts as has been the custom when territories have been admitted as States.

If anything, Statehood will make Puerto Rico's debt crisis worse.  As a territory, the interest on Puerto Rican debt is exempt from Federal, State, and local income taxes, but as a State, it will only be exempt from Federal income tax.  That tax exemption is part of what made Puerto Rican debt attractive to many investors and helped encourage the Puerto Rican government to take on too much debt.

I realize PROMESA is unpopular in Puerto Rico, but Statehood won't make the situation that made it necessary go away.  Once debt is back to manageable levels, Statehood would hopefully help keep the island from falling back into a debt trap, as financiers would have less reason to encourage the island to take on debt.

If Puerto Ricans are looking for a quick fix to their island's debt crisis by a change in their relationship with the U.S., then independence (with or without a free association compact) would be a much better option than Statehood, tho it would come with other drawbacks.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930323316/in-puerto-rico-young-voters-are-trying-to-shake-up-traditional-party-politics

Looks like Puerto Ricans are getting tired of the endless Statehood debate as a distraction from getting done things that matter for local governance. Which ironically may explain support for Statehood as a way to end the debate once and for all.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As I said in the thread over on USGD, given that Latins have shown they aren't a monolithically Democratic voting block, it's not impossible, especially if the Republicans think they can get credit for it, for Statehood to happen.  Bigger blocks are the tepid support for Statehood and the fact that any Statehood bill that has a chance of passage will require the State of Puerto Rico to assume the existing Commonwealth debt.