Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

McGuinty just nuked whatever chance the Grits might've had.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

McGuinty just nuked whatever chance the Grits might've had.

Details?

[RogueBeaver]

In a nutshell, confirming every stereotype Albertans have of Liberals. Rae has already apologized for McGuinty's comments.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/20/david-mcguinty-to-tories-go-back-to-alberta

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/21/rae-forced-to-apologize-after-david-mcguinty-says-alberta-tories-should-go-home/

[RogueBeaver]

Rae has accepted McGuinty's resignation as natural resource critic, per Twitter.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow, Liberals, just wow. When was the last time they were competent?

[Hatman 🍁]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

[DC Al Fine]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

[Hatman 🍁]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre

[mileslunn]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre

After the comments of David McGuinty and now some comments brought up from a two year old tape with Justin Trudeau, it will be interesting to see what happens.  I suspect the Tory internal polls have them worried so they are going to dig up every anti-Alberta comment from the Liberals to make sure it doesn't happen.  I would also argue a Tory loss in Durham would be just as big a deal as Tory support there in the past few elections hasn't been that much different than Calgary Centre.  Lets remember this is usually amongst their top 20 best seats in Ontario so if they lose there that signifies big trouble.  Nonetheless I see no evidence to suggest it won't go Tory.  The real question is do they get under or over 50% of the popular vote. 

[RogueBeaver]

Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

[Hatman 🍁]

Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

Greens should finish 2nd in Victoria, but their best bet at winning a seat will be CC. A lot of would be Liberal voters pissed off about Trudeau/McGuinty might switch to the Greens.

[lilTommy]

Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

Greens should finish 2nd in Victoria, but their best bet at winning a seat will be CC. A lot of would be Liberal voters pissed off about Trudeau/McGuinty might switch to the Greens.

Wont the Tory's who are voting Liberal cause they are pissed at Crawford cancel out the Liberals who will vote Green cause they are pissed at the Trudeau/McGuinty Comments?
My hope is they all give up and end up voting NDP, ya know the Official Opposition but thats wishful thinking (just like my hope for an upset in Durham)

[RogueBeaver]

New CC poll: Crockatt 37, Locke 32, Turner 17, Meades 12.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-hold-slight-lead-in-calgary-centre-by-election-poll/article5609301/

[adma]

Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

If it's over 50 in Durham, it's due to the favourite-son stature of the Tory standard-bearer.  But I can still see token sinkage here; though it'd be surprising to see the Cons sink under 40--and even there, an opposition split works on their behalf...

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

[Holmes]

Calm your tits.

[adma]

Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

Though if the NDP has a solid hold in Victoria and the Liberals are plausibly relegated to 4th in a seat they held less than a decade ago, that kind of counterweighs things, no?  (Besides, a poor CC NDP result may more likely bespeak the party's lingering retrograde lunchbucket stale-brandedness in that city--a malaise more akin to Lingenfelter's Sask than Layton's Canada.)

All in all, the Liberals potentially outpacing the NDP in Durham might be a stronger signal of the bloom being off the Dipper rose, even though that's a place where the NDP in second would have been a pre-Orange Crush pipe dream par excellence...

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should place 2nd in Durham. They have a strong candidate, and it is next to Oshawa after all.  BUT, it is exurban Toronto, which usually is a wasteland for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

Well, every party has a tendency to over-read their mandate. 

[RogueBeaver]

I expect drifting Tories to come back in the final days, like the provincial election, in CC. Dunno about the others.

[adma]

The NDP should place 2nd in Durham. They have a strong candidate, and it is next to Oshawa after all.  BUT, it is exurban Toronto, which usually is a wasteland for the NDP.

Prior to the Orange Crush, even w/said strong candidate and even w/being next to Oshawa, to predict 2nd place here would've earned one horselaughs.  Not that they *won't* place 2nd; but I'd go w/the polls indicating that it's more of a race for 2nd than a race for 1st.

[RogueBeaver]

Last debate wrapped up.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Calgary+Centre+candidates+make+final+push+during+lively+debate/7606667/story.html

[Hatman 🍁]

My Victoria by-election guide: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-1-victoria.html

parts 2 and 3 coming within the next ~36 hours.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

I think it's a bit soon to be declaring that.

[RogueBeaver]

He was being sarcastic.

Hatman: