Canadian by-elections, 2012

[lilTommy]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.

The Liberals played politics for 9years... and now they are playing politics again. Anyway, banking is arguable... the problem is, if you ask teachers is not the freeze but the fact that this bill violates their rights of collective bargaining, which a number of lawyers have come out saying they will fight this and the gov't might lose over pieces of the bill that aren't talked about. Wages and sick days make all the headlines.

[canadian1]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.

The Liberals played politics for 9years... and now they are playing politics again. Anyway, banking is arguable... the problem is, if you ask teachers is not the freeze but the fact that this bill violates their rights of collective bargaining, which a number of lawyers have come out saying they will fight this and the gov't might lose over pieces of the bill that aren't talked about. Wages and sick days make all the headlines.

Why did ETFO's leader walk away from the negotiating table in February? If they care so much about their right to collective bargaining, you'd think they would have made a strenuous effort to bargain collectively from the get-go.

[Hatman 🍁]

Argh Elections Manitoba sent me the new poll map of Ft Whyte being used for the by-election, instead of the last election. It appears to be very different, as there are some new developments in the south part of the riding which account for I think 5 new polls. But there are other shifts as well that I'm trying to figure out. Hopefully I can get a map up, but it's mostly all blue except for two polls that the NDP tied.

[adma]

Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...

That riding poll from some time ago ought to have set them straight--it had the NDP a close second.

"Rogue poll".  "Unrepresentative sample".  "Not consistent with 2011 patterns".  When it comes to finding convenient alibis, where there's a will, there's a way.

[Holmes]

Hard to tell there's even an election in Vaughan aside from some signs here and there, and no signs of the NDP either. Expected, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

by-election round up:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/provincial-by-elections-next-week-fort.html

[trebor204]

In the another election (by-election)  tonite:

Fort-Whyte, Manitoba

With 50/54 polls

Pallister, Brian (PC) 2,450 (New PC Leader)
Axworthy, Bob (LIB) 1,620
Schmidt, Brandy (NDP) 548
Benham, Donnie H. J. (GPM) 94
Ackman, Darrell (Ind) 16

Rejected 5
Votes Cast 4,7333
Registerered Voters 15,560
Turnout 30.42%

[Linus Van Pelt]

Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?

[trebor204]

Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?

Nope.
The Liberal candidate has name recognition (his older brother Llyod was a Liberal Federal cabinet minister)
He is also the only candidate to actually live in the riding. The other candidates live nearby.

[trebor204]

Final results

Fort-Whyte, Manitoba

With 54/54 polls  (Unoffical)

Pallister, Brian (PC) 3,626 (New PC Leader) - 55.1%
Axworthy, Bob (LIB) 2,074 - 31.5%
Schmidt, Brandy (NDP) 739 - 11.2%
Benham, Donnie H. J. (GPM) 113 - 1.7%
Ackman, Darrell (Ind) 19 - 0.3%

Rejected 8
Votes Cast 6,579
Registerered Voters 15,560
Turnout 52.28%

[lilTommy]

Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?

Nope.
The Liberal candidate has name recognition (his older brother Llyod was a Liberal Federal cabinet minister)
He is also the only candidate to actually live in the riding. The other candidates live nearby.

Also the Liberals have some history in the riding; outside of '11 where they only managed 7%, in 07 they had 14%, 05 by-election 21%, 03 was 19%... so no "stellar" but very good for the MAN Liberals i think. Demographics play into that 

[lilTommy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1251330--ndp-is-on-track-to-win-kitchener-waterloo-by-election-poll-suggests#.UEc1g-GJ3cs.facebook

Forum Poll has the NDP@42%, OLP & PCs both at 26%

Really? i'm impressed, i've been hearing that the NDP has just had a stellar campaign... but 42%! i bought IF the NDP were to win that it would be over 40%, i find that high even for a by-election in a riding what only once held by the CCF! (43-45)

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum was hinting towards a surprise (I assumed it meant an NDP lead) but whoa. That poll has me creaming my pants (Said that to bug Hash, he told me he's going to avoid by-election talk because of all of us dipper hacks )

[lilTommy]

Forum was hinting towards a surprise (I assumed it meant an NDP lead) but whoa. That poll has me creaming my pants (Said that to bug Hash, he told me he's going to avoid by-election talk because of all of us dipper hacks )

why should that stop him? he should talk up Vaughan in that case then

The OLP Needs to win Vaughan now... and thats the race they can win, so at least they can come out with no losses, and the PCs have the bloodiest nose with a 1 less seat and a by-election loss

[Hatman 🍁]

Frankly, I don't mind if the Tories win Vaughan.

But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

[Hatman 🍁]

The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

[adma]

But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

*And* the fact that he was technically "incumbent" in 2011 (thanks to the byelection), and the Liberals at large were in disarray.  Were it Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, it would have been much closer.

Oh, and re Kitchener-Waterloo: go back to some of my posts 'way earlier in this thread, pin-pricking assumptions that the seat was "too yuppie/high-tech/affluent" for anything other than a Tory/Liberal race.  Look: when I said the last federal result was "skewed by Telegdi", I meant it, I really meant it.  And, now you know what I was getting at.

And altogether, it's worth considering that this lowly provincial byelection might be, by proxy, the first *real* test of the Orange Crush's resilience and "potential for growth"...

[LastVoter]

But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

*And* the fact that he was technically "incumbent" in 2011 (thanks to the byelection), and the Liberals at large were in disarray.  Were it Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, it would have been much closer.

Oh, and re Kitchener-Waterloo: go back to some of my posts 'way earlier in this thread, pin-pricking assumptions that the seat was "too yuppie/high-tech/affluent" for anything other than a Tory/Liberal race.  Look: when I said the last federal result was "skewed by Telegdi", I meant it, I really meant it.  And, now you know what I was getting at.

And altogether, it's worth considering that this lowly provincial byelection might be, by proxy, the first *real* test of the Orange Crush's resilience and "potential for growth"...

Isn't Kitchner-Waterloo a university seat though?

[DL]

The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

Is there even such a thing as a "strategic anti-NDP voter" anymore? Especially in a by election situation

[MaxQue]

The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

Is there even such a thing as a "strategic anti-NDP voter" anymore? Especially in a by election situation

Yes, but the strategic anti-PC voter and the strategic anti-Liberal voter also exist.

[adma]

Isn't Kitchner-Waterloo a university seat though?

It is; but even that's been used as an anti-NDP argument in the past, pointing at Liberal wins and near-wins in Guelph, Kingston, London NC etc...

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose it's fair to say that students vote NDP, grads vote Liberal?

[2952-0-0]

Thanks to Teddy:

KW live results: http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/ro?code=039

Vaughan live results: http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/ro?code=097 #vaughan

[Linus Van Pelt]

Man, Elections Ontario's website is ass.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was wondering where the results were. Thank god for this site!

Still really close in Kitchener-Waterloo 1% separates the Tories and NDP with 8 polls in.