Battleground Georgia: Democrats see 2014 flip

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia is so inelastic that once Democrats break through in multiple races, it's a signaling point that the demographics are reaching critical mass. Nunn and Carter are helping us cheat by moving it up a cycle so to speak, but the argument by and large still stands.

After that happens, the Republicans will have at most one cycle to reclaim any territory before they lose it forever. In other words, if Nunn/Carter win in '14, Republicans can fight hard to keep Georgia's EVs for the Republicans - and the Senate seat - in '16, but '18 would likely be a clean-sweep of all statewide offices for Democrats (save for the very most popular incumbents). It also won't help that every statewide officer will be finishing their second term, a common retirement point, in '18 (except State School Superintendent).

In the example above, though, I think a Dem win in the Gov/Sen races in '14 is a lot harder than a win in '16; that case may be the actual end of Republican dominance in the state if we succeed in Nov.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia is so inelastic that once Democrats break through in multiple races, it's a signaling point that the demographics are reaching critical mass. Nunn and Carter are helping us cheat by moving it up a cycle so to speak, but the argument by and large still stands.

After that happens, the Republicans will have at most one cycle to reclaim any territory before they lose it forever. In other words, if Nunn/Carter win in '14, Republicans can fight hard to keep Georgia's EVs for the Republicans - and the Senate seat - in '16, but '18 would likely be a clean-sweep of all statewide offices for Democrats (save for the very most popular incumbents). It also won't help that every statewide officer will be finishing their second term, a common retirement point, in '18 (except State School Superintendent).

In the example above, though, I think a Dem win in the Gov/Sen races in '14 is a lot harder than a win in '16; that case may be the actual end of Republican dominance in the state if we succeed in Nov.

My friend, it doesn't bode well to make such sweeping statements.

Sure, there are enough trends to indicate that there is a Democratic majority about to emerge, but let's not ignore the possibility that the GOP can (and most likely will) address such changes in a way besides saying "nah uh uh!"  Or more to the point, all they need is an economic shift in the demographics that will upset the balance in the state.

No offense, but your analysis about the FOREVER DEMOCRATIC Georgia is a bit in the hackish realm.  Nunn and Carter winning in 2014 is no more of a testament to permanent political realignment as Walsh and Curley winning in 1934.  Sure, a victory can happen in 2014, 2016, or 2018, but it's not some definite end to GOP hopes . . . . .  forever.  

Not in the literal sense, no. In a generational sense (which is forever in terms of careers and trends), I stand by what I say. Most aren't interested in the changes over 100 years; particularly in the South (excluding the 60s), we don't have a tendency to wildly flip-flop back and forth between parties, anyway. Combine that with our current demography (very little of which would respond to a Wallace-like wrench being thrown into things), and a rapid deviation from the trend any time soon seems very, very unlikely.

Georgia is so inelastic that once Democrats break through in multiple races, it's a signaling point that the demographics are reaching critical mass. Nunn and Carter are helping us cheat by moving it up a cycle so to speak, but the argument by and large still stands.

After that happens, the Republicans will have at most one cycle to reclaim any territory before they lose it forever. In other words, if Nunn/Carter win in '14, Republicans can fight hard to keep Georgia's EVs for the Republicans - and the Senate seat - in '16, but '18 would likely be a clean-sweep of all statewide offices for Democrats (save for the very most popular incumbents). It also won't help that every statewide officer will be finishing their second term, a common retirement point, in '18 (except State School Superintendent).

In the example above, though, I think a Dem win in the Gov/Sen races in '14 is a lot harder than a win in '16; that case may be the actual end of Republican dominance in the state if we succeed in Nov.

Democrats' wet dream since 1992.

Because we lost one of our Senators then - the one that we had lost in 1980 and won back in 1986? I don't think that's a good time to pinpoint our downfall, considering we still had 1 Senator, 10/11 U.S. House seats, huge majorities in both state chambers and every statewide office.

Maybe the dream since 2002, but the difference between 2002 and 2014 can clearly be seen in the chart I made. Georgia whites are at their floor in terms of Democratic support; virtually everything outside of the main cities and south of Atlanta already looks like MS/AL in that regard. Blacks aren't shifting in persuasion; Latinos could but their effect would still be relatively small and not a deal-breaker in the short-term. Again, though, there are very few voting blocs in Georgia that demonstrate elastic traits and it's been a long-but-quickening trot toward our return; unless an exodus of non-whites occurs within the next few years, this will never again* be a safe Republican state.

*See my similar reply to Mechaman