When will the next two-term president be elected?

[Mister Mets]

The most likely of the outcomes is probably 2020, since it just requires one election to go a particular way. You could think Trump's odds are less than even but that the other individual outcomes are less likely.

Let's assume Trump's odds of winning reelection are as low as thirty percent.

This would mean a seventy percent chance Democrats win. But with Biden and Sanders as frontrunners, you could argue a fifty percent chance Democrats nominate someone who won't run for a second term. This would mean a 35 percent chance a Democrat is running for reelection in 2020, and even if their odds of winning would be as high as 80 percent, that's still only a 28 percent chance of a reelected Democrat in 2024.

If Biden or Sanders is a one-termer, the Democratic nominee could still be elected in 2024, but their chances of winning reelection would likely be lower because they have to hold on to power longer (there is a counterargument that demographics will help Democrats significantly and that the party should do better in future elections.)

A Republican elected in 2024 after one term of Biden or Sanders or an unpopular Democratic president would likely be favored to win reelection, as would a Republican after two total terms of two Democratic Presidents. But that requires several other stuff to occur. If there's a 35 percent chance of Biden or Sanders being the next President, and the next election is truly even, and an additional 6.5% chance that a Republican beats an incumbent Democrat in 2020, that means a 24% chance of a Republican winning in 2024, which is necessary when calculating the odds the person has of serving two full terms.

My guess for odds breakdowns on the options...
* He's already been elected-- DJT will win re-election (40%)
* 2020-- the Democrat who wins will be a two-term president (13%)
* 2024- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will pass the torch to a younger Democrat (10%)
* 2024- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will be defeated by a Republican, who will win a second term in office (12%)
* 2028-- we'll have three one-term presidents in a row (20%)
* Bonus- It'll take even longer. (5%)

2028 may be a bit underrated, as there are a few potential outcomes (Biden/ Sanders wins followed by Republican who loses to a Democrat; Biden/ Sanders win followed by a Democrat who fails to keep the White House in the party for three terms)

Four in a row is also conceivable (Biden/ Sanders don't run for reelection followed by Republican who loses to weak Democrat; Biden/ Sanders are followed by Democrat who loses to weak Republican