Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

Reading the article it seems that it’s not actually us asking them to soften their stance but asking them to just publicly state they are willing to negotiate just for an optics standpoint

This is driven by the domestic politics of both Ukraine and the USA.  In Ukraine, the government has framed the conflict in existential terms so any talks with Russia while Russian troops are still in Ukraine solid could lead to major political problems.  In the USA Biden will face a new "America First" heavy GOP majority who will be pushing the line "when will we stop just dumping money on Ukraine and instead look for a way out of this conflict with honor?"

[Torie]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1589296510277390339

[NOVA Green]

Haven't posted on this thread in a couple days, but a few items that might be of interest to some...

Benjamin has a real good Twitter thread about Russian force relocations around Kherson, based upon OSINT and satellite images.

You will want to click on the link below in order to go the entire Tweet thread...


https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1588924462686404609?s=20&t=IpteJuwTBSRDX...

[NOVA Green]

Here is another interesting Tweet which appears to indicate another Ukrainian assault against Russian base in Crimea from whence many Iranian drone attacks have originated:

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1589170779874545666?s=20&t=IpteJuwTB...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, the Russian underground Anti-War movement appears to have conducted yet another sabotage operation against Russian railroad movement of materials destined towards their war machine in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1588903539325427714?s=20&t=IpteJuw...

[NOVA Green]

Russian soldiers of the 155th Naval Brigade send a message to the top brass:

(Believe the first link should send you to the thread?)

Still, just in case tossing in a few other tweets on the topic

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1589298282085646337?s=20&t=IpteJuwTBSRDX4...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1589302035748249602?s=20&t=IpteJuwTBSRDX4...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1589346540048781312?s=20&t=IpteJuwTBSRDX4...

[NOVA Green]

A bit more info about the story from less than a week back of the rebellion of the Mobiks against not being paid:

The Investigative Committee published a video in which two mobilized from Chuvashia, who are in Ulyanovsk, thank the employees of the department for explaining their "rights" and "the procedure for payments."

The inhabitants of Chuvashia, previously called up for war, staged a protest in the training center of Ulyanovsk - on November 1, they went to the parade ground and demanded 300 thousand rubles, which they were promised to be paid within a few days after mobilization. “They just ed us and that’s it!” One of them said and demanded to call the regiment commander.

As Baza wrote, after the start of the action, the National Guard arrived at the training center, and the officers "managed to calm down" the dissatisfied. In addition, the riot police participated in the “suppression of the will” of the protesters, the human rights project Gulagu.Net claimed. The next day, the mobilized began to boycott the exercises, in total about 2 thousand people wrote reports addressed to the regiment commander.

https://zona.media/chronicle/256#50847

[NOVA Green]

More about the flawed Russian Military assault on Pavlovka, and how this is being reported with Russia, from an underground Russian channel.

Soldiers of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (Slavyansk village, Primorsky Territory) wrote appeals to the Governor of Primorye, Oleg Kozhemyako. They talk about the "incomprehensible attack" on Pavlovka (Donetsk region) and the huge losses that the military leadership hides.

The war correspondent of the All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Alexander Sladkov wrote about the existence of such an appeal . He did not publish the letter itself, briefly mentioning only the main details. Soon the text of the letter (with the exception of names) was posted by the former PR woman of Vyacheslav Volodin, Anastasia Kashevarova.

“Once again, we were thrown into an incomprehensible offensive by General M. and his corefan countryman A. in order for M. to earn bonuses in front of the Chief of the General Staff, and A. comrade M. promised the Hero of Russia.

As a result, we and the marines of Kamchatka are advancing on Pavlovka. As a result of the "carefully" planned offensive by the "great commanders", we lost about ... people in 4 days killed, wounded and missing. ... percent of technology. This is just our team.

"Full control" over the village of Pavlovka, according to the statements of the Ministry of Defense, was established on March 13. After 7 months, on October 30, the assault detachments of the Russian troops managed to approach the southern outskirts of Pavlovka. On November 2, the head of the DPR, Pushilin, spoke about successes in this area.

Commenting on Sladkov's post, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok battalion of the DPR, recalled that he had spoken about the premature advance on Pavlovka. According to him, the Russian troops "ended up in a fire bag." The telegram channel WarGonzo of military commander Semyon Pegov also wrote about the poor situation of Russian troops in the Pavlovka area , the Agency notes .

https://zona.media/chronicle/256#50845

[CanadianDemocrat]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

The only way to end the war sooner is to send Ukraine heavy weapons like Leopard 2 tanks and fighter jets. The only thing Putin understands is force, not diplomacy.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

The only way to end the war sooner is to send Ukraine heavy weapons like Leopard 2 tanks and fighter jets. The only thing Putin understands respects is force, not diplomacy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

We all know what he "wants" - but if this year has shown anything, its that he can't get it just because he "wants" it. And who says he will still be around (even alive) in 5-10 years anyway?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/the-us-northeast-is-hurtling-toward-a-winter-heating-crisis

"The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis"

Sigh ... here we come...

[Torie]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/the-us-northeast-is-hurtling-toward-a-winter-heating-crisis

"The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis"

Sigh ... here we come...

"Rocky MacDonald, a father of three and realtor in Stoneham, Massachusetts, expects to pay over $500 for heating oil to keep his three-bedroom ranch house warm this winter.  That’s about 20% more than last year. To save money, MacDonald and his wife are cooking dinner at home more often. When they do go out, they skip the bottle of wine."

Crisis?

[Torie]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

The only way to end the war sooner is to send Ukraine heavy weapons like Leopard 2 tanks and fighter jets. The only thing Putin understands is force, not diplomacy.

Any deal that does not entail a commitment by the West to formally ally with Ukraine in the event it is invaded again, would be a disgrace, yes.

[jaichind]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Price-Cap-Will-Not-Apply-To-Resold-Cargoes.html

"Russian Oil Price Cap Will Not Apply To Resold Cargoes"

You got to be kidding me.  This is so funny.  This sounds like a paradise for arbitrage and kickback schemes.  This entire price cap scheme is really going to be a no go anyway.  Stuff like this just making a farce of it. 

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/the-us-northeast-is-hurtling-toward-a-winter-heating-crisis

"The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis"

Sigh ... here we come...

"Rocky MacDonald, a father of three and realtor in Stoneham, Massachusetts, expects to pay over $500 for heating oil to keep his three-bedroom ranch house warm this winter.  That’s about 20% more than last year. To save money, MacDonald and his wife are cooking dinner at home more often. When they do go out, they skip the bottle of wine."

Crisis?

Bloomberg's words and not my.  Unit energy costs already rose 20% for NE consumers in 2022 and this article implies thatt this surge will continue.  Also energy surging energy cost will also drive the cost of other goods especially the cost of food.  I guess Biden is lucky that the midterm election is tomorrow and not in Feb.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Price-Cap-Will-Not-Apply-To-Resold-Cargoes.html

"Russian Oil Price Cap Will Not Apply To Resold Cargoes"

You got to be kidding me.  This is so funny.  This sounds like a paradise for arbitrage and kickback schemes.  This entire price cap scheme is really going to be a no go anyway.  Stuff like this just making a farce of it. 

More $$ for China...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/the-us-northeast-is-hurtling-toward-a-winter-heating-crisis

"The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis"

Sigh ... here we come...

"Rocky MacDonald, a father of three and realtor in Stoneham, Massachusetts, expects to pay over $500 for heating oil to keep his three-bedroom ranch house warm this winter.  That’s about 20% more than last year. To save money, MacDonald and his wife are cooking dinner at home more often. When they do go out, they skip the bottle of wine."

Crisis?

Bloomberg's words and not my.  Unit energy costs already rose 20% for NE consumers in 2022 and this article implies thatt this surge will continue.  Also energy surging energy cost will also drive the cost of other goods especially the cost of food.  I guess Biden is lucky that the midterm election is tomorrow and not in Feb.

There certainly could be a fiscal crisis. There's a lot of "all types of support for Ukraine" consensus sentiment still, but can it last if the cost is high enough?
In this battle between our political elite and Russia's, the loser will be whoever blinks first, and that likely only will occur whoever is forced to through the popular will changing.

[2952-0-0]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Price-Cap-Will-Not-Apply-To-Resold-Cargoes.html

"Russian Oil Price Cap Will Not Apply To Resold Cargoes"

You got to be kidding me.  This is so funny.  This sounds like a paradise for arbitrage and kickback schemes.  This entire price cap scheme is really going to be a no go anyway.  Stuff like this just making a farce of it. 

So third-country resellers, as well as the Russian officials who are making the deals, will make big bucks at the expense of the Russian state coffers, thus increasing graft within the Russian state bureaucracy and reducing its ability to continue the war. Sounds like a fair deal to me.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1589681741085945856?s=20&t=N73VrxU81L46tn...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1589681754256060416?s=20&t=N73VrxU81L46tn...

[Storr]

Haven't posted on this thread in a couple days, but a few items that might be of interest to some...

Benjamin has a real good Twitter thread about Russian force relocations around Kherson, based upon OSINT and satellite images.

You will want to click on the link below in order to go the entire Tweet thread...


https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1588924462686404609?s=20&t=IpteJuwTBSRDX...

The second tweet in Benjamin's thread, showing a map of the fortification line on the southern bank of the Dnipro River:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1589053389295362049?s=20&t=_Av-kUrDu05...

[Torie]

Despite Putin's best efforts to have total control of the messaging, and make even thinking about 1st Amendment rights a thought crime, he seems to still have PR problems in addition to his problems on the battlefield.

Russia Plays Down Reports of Devastating Losses

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/08/world/ukraine-war-news-russia-updates

Rank definitely has its privileges in the Russian military I must say:

"The news website Verstka quoted Aleksey Agafonov, whom it identified as a survivor of the battle near Makiivka, saying that his unit had been ordered to dig defensive trenches near Ukrainian positions but were given only three shovels and no provisions.

'When Ukrainian forces started shelling, he said, “the officers immediately ran away,” leaving their untrained men in the open to face fire from artillery, mortars and helicopters."

[CumbrianLefty]

Reports their troops have been supplied with *summer* sleeping bags just recently, too.

[Logical]

A Gogol short story in less than 280 letters.
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1589925514038611968