Not bad -a drop of ~2.5% in four years.
Can anyone guess what the unemployment rate will be by January 2016?
I expect it will be in the 6 to 6.5% range. The Fed has already signaled that it intends to cut back on stimulus once unemployment reaches 6.5% I expect 6.5% will likely be reached on mid- to late-2014. The Fed cutbacks will cause unemployment to hold fairly steady in 2015. January 2016 will be near the end of the plateau, but still in it.
I think it will be around that range as well, but for different reasons. I think the labor force is going to increase again to reinflate the number. The Fed contraction will have some effect, but not as much as it should have considering how the banks mishandled the stimulus and didn't really use a lot of the money it was given.
