What gains has Biden made outside of his base?

[Obama24]

Since 2020, what gains among voting blocs has Biden made?

He thought he had the youth vote in the bag with student debt relief - but then came October 7th. All that good will was flushed down the toilet.

What incentive has he given other groups (other than not being named Donald Trump) to actually get out to vote for him in November? I mean people that weren't already voting for him - what gains has he made in the past 4 years?

I feel like he's relying on the 2020 strategy at least in part of of mail in ballots, but how many people are going to be doing that again without Covid and the fear of Covid being an actual motivating factor?

[SnowLabrador]

None, and he's lost some of his own base. They probably won't vote for Trump, but it doesn't take that many withholding their vote to cost him the election.

[Obama24]

None, and he's lost some of his own base. They probably won't vote for Trump, but it doesn't take that many withholding their vote to cost him the election.

I can actually see a scenario where 18-24 year old Muslim youth actually vote for Trump as a middle finger, while their parents stay home or vote green or other.

[7,052,770]

The expanded Obamacare have made life easier for millions, and that's a demographic not really represented on this forum, nor among pollsters and pundits

[Comrade Funk]

The only one I can even think of are seniors. Idk if that's true, but that's their only hope.

[Senator Incitatus]

A small sliver of “actually the numbers say” wonks.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Republicans who finally saw the light after January 6th and haven’t looked back, and people who woke up after Dobbs.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The only one I can even think of are seniors. Idk if that's true, but that's their only hope.

Lower turnout would probably help Biden more than Trump, and there’s certainly rematch fatigue.

[Lief 🗽]

Don’t polls consistently show him improving with whites? Obviously his losses with non-whites cancel this out, but if you’re gonna believe one of these changes I don’t think you discount the other.

[wnwnwn]

Three types of women:
- Lefties who used to think "corporate-uniparty" before Dobbs
- Moderates who liked Trump for some issues but vote dem since Doobs
- Dem leaning low propensity voters that now will vote

[robocop]

The only one I can even think of are seniors. Idk if that's true, but that's their only hope.

If true then Florida MUST be in play.  

[xavier110]

Well, white college educated professionals. But those may now count as his base, IDK.

These folks are basically inoculated from the economic arguments - they’re doing largely OK - and already dislike Trump. They’re socially liberal and very turned off by the more religious/big government social conservative posturing of the GOP, now made more real post-Dobbs.

As Lief said, his numbers have only been improving among this cohort, and I don’t expect that to change.

They don’t necessarily have extreme enthusiasm for Biden (does anyone?), but…

[Rand]

Does he even lift, bro?

[Crumpets]

People who have turned 18 since 2020 replacing people who have died since 2020. :/

[President Johnson]

Moderate suburbanites, I would think. Especially since Trump has become more toxic than he even was at the time of the 2020 election.

Furthermore, Biden should actually net gain from voters that have died/will die between November 2020 and November 2024 and new voters coming to the rolls.