You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining
It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.
Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.
We're targeting Reid because he's horrendously unpopular, and already has two undeserved victories under his belt -- 1998 when he was behind and the unpopularity of congressional Republicans let him win by less than 700 votes, and 2010 when he faced a complete nutjob and still only won by like 6%. Offense is the best kind of defense, and Reid at the moment is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2016.
I think Sandoval won't be running because he prefers being Governor and will recruit someone competent to run for the GOP (like he did for the Lieutenant Governors' race in 2014). But if you like the thought that Reid cut a deal with a Republican Governor to survive, I guess you can entertain it.
Again, symbolism isn't exactly a good reason to target someone.My post was getting at symbolism not being the reason the Republican Party will target Reid. Rather, it is the deep contempt in which many Nevada voters hold Reid that is the key reason.
Reid's numbers aren't great, but he can get things done and that's the reason he's gets elected. A senator is supposed to do more than just talk or make jokes, or try to be cute, it is an actual job, you know.
Reid's victories in 1998 and 2010 were both due to not just the hard, competent work the Reid campaign put in (which I am not denying -- Reid runs a good operation) but they were put over the line by forces entirely not under Reid's control. In 2010 especially, a competent candidate (like Joe Heck, incidentally) would probably have won.
And rumor has it that Reid didn't bring out his turnout machine in 2014 in exchange for Sandoval not running in 2016 (not that I think Sandoval was running anyway). Reid supposedly did the same thing with Ensign in 2006, a non-aggression pact. It's just a rumor, but not one I made up.
Reid and Ensign really did have a non-aggression pact, which was totally public (Ensign's family members would donate to Reid's campaigns for instance) and above-board. That's why Reid wasn't challenged in 2004 and why Ensign wasn't challenged in 2006 -- otherwise both would have been very vulnerable both years. But while the rumor exists, there's not much reason to think Reid and Sandoval have a non-aggression pact -- otherwise Reid wouldn't have backed Lucy Flores so strongly and Sandoval certainly wouldn't be publicly considering challenging Reid right now.
I also find the idea that Reid has a "turnout machine" to be a little ridiculous. The man ran one good campaign against a god-awful opponent and won -- the reason it looked so impressive at the time was because of polling failure. NV-2012 was a very real, competitive Senate race, where Reid went all in for Shelley Berkley, and she still lost -- where was the Reid machine?
