Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Seizing total control of Ukraine with a puppet govt is definitely what this is coming down to. This is no longer about the 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. Zelensky will most likely head into exile by next week, if not earlier. Europe possibly needs to be prepared for a major wave of Ukrainian refugees in the coming weeks or months.

That said, Putler pretty much exposed himself that this was never about a "safe distance" to NATO borders. With this move, HE moves closer to NATO, not the former is coming close to him as Ukraine membership was never a question within the next years. It was always a lie from the Russian regime.

I seriously can't believe that the Chamberlain crew actually thought there was some kind of treaty or agreement that could've abated this. This has never been about NATO "encirclement." It's about land.

[John Dule]

Seems like Ukraine is folding insanely quickly? What even is the plan on the Ukranian side? I understand a war would almost certainly be lost long term but I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to fold this fast?

I mean, they're up against one of the most well-funded and well-trained armies in the world. Not many European countries have armies that would actually last more than a week against Russia.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1496860722059517958

Chernobyl tweets earlier appear to be misinfo, thank God.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370?s=20&t=EbnxU7MIRU...

Why on Earth would the Russians bring the fighting to Chernobyl?

[John Dule]

ABC is now reporting the Chernobyl thing too. Still find it hard to believe.

[John Dule]

Why on Earth would the Russians bring the fighting to Chernobyl?

It's due north of Kiev and, in theory, a handy short-cut.

This.

Going through the exclusion zone is the fastest way for mechanized units to get from Belarus to Kyiv.

It would be a pretty Pyrrhic victory for Putin to seize control of Ukraine only to have its soil and water poisoned for millennia. Troops might be passing through the exclusion zone, but that stuff about damage to the waste storage is BS.

[John Dule]

Repeating "Kabul Kabul Kabul" is Russian propaganda. There is no reason to believe the collapse of the Ukrainian state is imminent.

Not sure, Russia is a much different thing than Taliban. I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised, if a week from now Zelensky is still in Ukraine and its prez. I actually expect him to flee into exile in the coming days, if not hours. Not to mention the possibility he'll be murdered. As much as I hate to say it.

Ukraine is almost certainly going to lose, but that is very different than what transpired in Afghanistan.

Low bar.

[John Dule]

A potentially stupid question, though I wonder how Putin would react to NATO actually getting involved militarily to assist Ukraine? Would he actually risk a direct confrontation with NATO and the United States, or would he blink? I'm saying we should intervene, I just ask myself how he'd react.

We should find out.

Honestly, do you understand that the real world actually affects your life? Whatever neighborhood you live in is not going to survive a nuclear holocaust, no matter how good the guard at the gate is.

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

What if it was your town?

Then it would be up for me to decide what to do, just as it is up to the Ukrainian people to decide. No one is under the obligation, however, to engage in all-out urban warfare for which they are untrained because their government failed to uphold its obligation to protect them.

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Seems like a good plan. Arm as many vigilantes no matter who they are. Russia can enjoy the next decade of this.

The Ukrainian people will be the ones "enjoying" that decade.

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

If my homeland were being destroyed by an invader I'd fight to the death to defend it. Freedom over capitulation.

A lot of posters on Atlas are Anywheres rather than Somewheres and have a different mindset on this.

Very easy for you to say given that your home isn't the one under threat. I certainly hope I'd do the same, but it's impossible to say for sure until one is put in such a situation. All I'm saying is that I don't blame the Ukrainian people if an insurgency doesn't materialize-- and anyone who does blame them is profoundly ignorant.

[John Dule]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Seems like a good plan. Arm as many vigilantes no matter who they are. Russia can enjoy the next decade of this.

The Ukrainian people will be the ones "enjoying" that decade.

Do you believe that Russian occupation is a better outcome for the Ukrainian people?

I believe that there's a legitimate debate to be had over whether it's preferable to be ruled by Putin or to see your country devolve into a European Syria, and the keyboard insurgents who want to see years of violent resistance have no right to judge the Ukrainian people for which option they choose.

[John Dule]

To the people saying it's a lot to ask of civilians – no duh. They're not being compelled to fight afaik, and I certainly wouldn't blame any who chose to flee or submit. But I certainly think it's incredibly admirable for those who can fight to do so.

I agree with this.

[John Dule]

I want to make very clear here, I am not judging any of the Ukrainian people aside from their leadership. When I say I support opposition to the Russians, it's because I want the Russians to suffer so that they will be less likely to pull this again in the future. Unfortunately we can't control the actions of sh-thole countries like Russia, and it's incredibly tragic that Putin decided to target Ukraine in his effort to spread his filth across the globe, but that's not something we can control anymore. All we can do is try and make Russia and its people hurt, and right now because of Russia's actions Ukraine is the avenue to do that through. I don't judge any Ukrainians for not resisting, but so long as there are people in Ukraine willing to kill Russian soldiers, they should have our support. As callous and sad as this is to say, we're not just talking about the quality of life in Ukraine (or even Ukraine's independence), we're talking about putting the cesspit that is Putin's Russia in its place.

I just don't want us to miss the fact that countries trapped in a tug-of-war between two great powers are the ones that always suffer the most. Ukraine may not be a rich country, but it does not deserve to be decimated like Vietnam or Syria. I hope that whatever strategy we pursue in the next few months primarily hurts the people responsible for this, and doesn't cause the people of Ukraine any more unnecessary pain. Lord knows that country has suffered enough due to the whims of Russia over the past hundred years.

[John Dule]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Kazakhstan condemned the recognition.

[John Dule]

Every time I see a deranged Forumlurker post I am confused but I see the avatar and expect something from Andriy but it's always more Forumlurker crap.

I find solace in knowing how much these comments will embarrass him after he hits puberty.

[John Dule]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

From context I assumed he was specifically referring to him.

[John Dule]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

This has always been the most likely outcome from a Russian invasion. The question is whether the sanctions will be strong enough to cripple the Russian economy into the foreseeable future, which would make it harder for Putin to consolidate his control.

[John Dule]

As encouraging as these reports of Ukraine punching above its weight are, I'm going to hold off on the optimism. Russia's psychotic leaders have a long history of just throwing innocent bodies (including their own citizens) at a problem until it goes away. I sincerely doubt that Ukraine will be able to hold out for over a week against an onslaught from a much larger and better-funded military.

The tales of Ukrainian successes are heartwarming, but they will not amount to much if the cuckolds in charge of continental Europe can't get their acts together and impose the appropriate sanctions.

[John Dule]

Kick Russia off the U.N. Security Council

I realize it's practically unlikely, but god dammit, we need to hit Russia on every single front absent direct confrontation.

There was never a formal process to admit Russia into the U.N. after the USSR's demise, and the Security Council seat was granted via a decision from the UN's legal counsel with no action requested from the General Assembly. That edict could be revoked, and the U.S. could demand a vote in the General Assembly on Russia's Security Council membership. Would such a maneuver save Kyiv? No, but Moscow must be besieged on all fronts if there is any hope of rescuing Ukrainians from a Russian occupation. The worst crisis in post-war Europe demands nothing less than concerted, dramatic action aimed at Moscow's total isolation, and the time to start is now.

Not only is Russia on the Security Council, but it's the frigging Council President for the duration of February. The UN is a cosplay convention.

[John Dule]

Wasn't Kiev supposed to be bombed to smithereens an hour and a half ago?

CNN reporting explosions in Kyiv

I need to learn when to stop saying things.

*Curb Your Enthusiasm theme plays*

[John Dule]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

Winter War 2?

Big difference between an army that has everything to lose and one that has nothing to gain, maybe that's what we're seeing here.

I'm also seeing anecdotal reports that young Russian soldiers in particular are laying down their arms in decent numbers, saying they don't want to kill or die for Putin. One idea may be for Western nations to offer amnesty and asylum to any Russian soldier who doesn't want to fight (many are drafted and don't wanna be there).

No morale, no economy, international pariah, military humiliations, unrest at home? If it all goes just right this may backfire way worse than Putin could ever have imagined. Fingers crossed...

I gave up on wishful thinking the day Sanchez was banned. Now I know the world is unjust.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

If only he would go on Fox and tell this to Tucker, who has spent this whole week telling the homunculi who watch his show that America is to blame for this.

[John Dule]

[John Dule]

I honestly think every Russia apologist on this site besides Santander has a single-digit IQ.