New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Democratic Hawk]

Party ID:

Dem: 36%
IND: 29%
REP: 26%
Oth/Refused: 9%


these explains that...

Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.

They did. Not too sure about it now. This is from gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110215/GOP-Increase-Party-After-Convention-Unusual.aspx

Seemingly, cut the Democratic advantage in half. Perhaps former Republicans are coming home now that McCain is "leading" the party. Either that or Saintly Sarah has 'em swooning

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dave Hawk, what is your opinion of sarah palin?

My opinion? Well, she's the Republican presidential nominee ... vice-presidential nominee rather, who thinks she is above scrutiny and beyond repproach, well, because she's a woman

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama seems to be polling to high IMHO.

Research 2000's weighting is 35% Democrat; 26% Republican; 30% Independent; 9% Other/Refused

However, using Rasmussen's weighting for this past week, Democrat 39.0%, Republican 33.6%; Unaffiliated 27.40% and applying it here, I get:

Obama: Democrat (88%) 34.320, Republican (7%) 2.252, Unaffiliated (50%) 13.70 = 50.372% (50% rounded)

McCain: Democrat (7%) 3.120, Republican (84%) 28.224, Unaffiliated (38%) 10.412 = 41.756% (42% rounded)

That's an Obama lead of 8% rounded

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

Gallup's most recent aggregated weekly tracking data (Sep. 22-28) shows Obama with 41% of whites (McCain is at 52%) and 65% among Hispanics (McCain is at 26%)

Dave