New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Rowan]

Futher erosion of Obama's lead. Last nights individual sample was Obama +4.

MAC IS BACK!

[Zarn]

I still don't understnad why they even want to conduct this poll.

[Nym90]

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias.

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

[??????????]

Please unsticky this thread as this poll has no credibility. And if I find Free Republic running a poll then I full expect it to be sticked.

[minionofmidas]

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias.

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

[Sam Spade]

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias.

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

I'll only be bumping it up when it shows results not so great for Democrats.  If the results are great for Democrats, I can guarantee that *other people* will beat me.

[Nym90]

Please unsticky this thread as this poll has no credibility. And if I find Free Republic running a poll then I full expect it to be sticked.

Agreed about credibility, but Battleground isn't much better, and the sticky is more a matter of convenience for those posting the numbers than anything.

[Sam Spade]

Now that this has been stickied, can I please ask the Daily Kos kids again to tell their mentor:

DEM 389/1100 = 35.36%
GOP 281/1100 = 25.45%
IND 331/1100 = 30.09%
OTH 100/1100 = 9.09%

Which means the sample is now technically 35D-25R-30I-9O.  Not 35D-26R-30I-9O.

Thank you.  

[Brittain33]

Now that this has been stickied, can I please ask the Daily Kos kids again to tell their mentor:

DEM 389/1100 = 35.36%
GOP 281/1100 = 25.45%
IND 331/1100 = 30.09%
OTH 100/1100 = 9.09%

Which means the sample is now technically 35D-25R-30I-9O.  Not 35D-26R-30I-9O.

Thank you. 

You know, you're more likely to get a response from e-mailing him directly than I'd get from being the 357th post on the thread, pointing it out. He reads his e-mail, but who knows if he reads the comments. He won't know who you are if you e-mail and mention the change concisely; I really doubt he cross-checks neutral e-mail against the banned e-mail list.

[Rowan]

Tuesday September 23, 2008
Obama 49%(nc)
McCain 43%(nc)

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama 48 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

[Zarn]

What would this be with a re-fixed party ID... say Rasmussen's?

Any help would be appreciated.

[Sam Spade]

What would this be with a re-fixed party ID... say Rasmussen's?

Any help would be appreciated.

Presently, since there are too many Ind/Oth in the sample (imho), the difference is not great:

McCain 45.60
Obama 47.65

[Zarn]

Thanks. That's about what I expected.

[Brittain33]

Seriously, did you get a chance to e-mail him? He keeps trumpeting how great he is for revealing the internals...

[Sam Spade]

Seriously, did you get a chance to e-mail him? He keeps trumpeting how great he is for revealing the internals...

Nah, but I should do that though.  Today.

[Kalimantan]

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/24/7286/97809/238/607946

"Of interest for those questioning the R2K demographics is this post yesterday from Gallup:

Democrats have re-established a double-digit advantage over Republicans in party affiliation, with 49% of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats or leaning to the Democratic Party, and 39% identifying as Republicans or leaning to the Republican Party. This is a shift from immediately after the Republican National Convention, when Democrats enjoyed their smallest advantage of the year, leading only 47% to 42%.

Self-identified party ID is a variable, and something poll junkies will always want to discuss, as it affects topline numbers. It's great when pollsters are transparent about their internals – a hat tip to everyone who publishes this!!

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9
Diageo/Hotline: 41    36    19    +5   
Rasmussen:      39    33.5  27.5  +5.5
Gallup:         35    26    33    +9
ABC:            38    28    29    +10

Gallup, in other words, has Democrats +9 to R2K's +9 when leaners are excluded, whereas Diageo/Hotline (+5) is closer to Rasmussen (+5.5). Who is right? Let's see the 11/4/08 exit polls. In the meantime, R2K's assumption seems as reasonable as Gallup's. Adding leaners to the self-identified party ID for Gallup makes the D's +10 (i.e., only a slight change), lending credence to the idea that it's okay to push leaners – you won't radically change the results."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sarah Failan.

Boy, them Kossacks is clever.  In that special 4chan-ish Asperger way.

I agree. That's as bad as J. J.'s insults.

[Brittain33]

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9

Yeah, this is the post I alluded to above.

[Sam Spade]

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9

Yeah, this is the post I alluded to above.

It's actually 35D, 25R, 30 I, which I promise that I will point out, brittain33. 

[TheresNoMoney]

9/25/08

Obama    49%
McCain     43%

[Eraserhead]

Looking like a good day for the tracking polls so far, joke and non-joke.

[Tender Branson]

Friday - September 26, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Wiz in Wis]

Saturday - September 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[ucscgaldamez]

About the same as Rasmussen Reports for today.