India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

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Axis My India Assam exit poll with community breakdown

Assamese Hindus and Tea Garden tribals broke for BJP

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Poll Diary has BJP win in WB

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JAN KI BAAT exit poll for WB

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NDTV WB poll of polls

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TV9- POLL STRAT exit poll for WB

AITC: 142-152      43.9%
BJP: 125-135       40.5%
Left+CONG : 16-26   10.7%

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pro-BJP Today's Chanakya exit poll for TN

AIADMK+ 57 ± 11 Seats     37%
DMK+ 175 ± 11 Seats        51%
Others 2 ± 4 Seats            12%

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Kerala Exit Poll: Axis My India has massive LDF victory

LDF: 104-120
UDF: 20-36
BJP: 0-2
Oth: 0-2

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C voter Assam exit poll

BJP+ 58-71
CONG+ 53-66

But has UPA vote share well ahead

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Shining India TN exit poll

DMK+      :   49.1%  +-3
AIADMK+:   42.8%  +-3
MNM       :   3.4%   +-1
AMMK     :    1.6%  +-1
NTK         :    1.3%  +-1
Others    :    1.8%  +-1

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CNX exit poll for Kerala has slight LDF lead

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TN poll of polls have DMK+ bloc well ahead

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Assam poll of polls

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C Voter Puducherry exit poll

NDA : 19-23
INC : 6-10
OTH : 1-2

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Axis My India TN exit poll

DMK+: 175-195
AIADMK+: 38-54
Others: 1-4

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Democracy Times Network Exit Poll for TN

𝗗𝗠𝗞+: 187 Seats
𝗔𝗗𝗠𝗞+: 46 Seats
𝗔𝗠𝗠𝗞+: 01 Seat
𝗡𝗧𝗞: 00 Seats
𝗠𝗡𝗠: 00 Seats

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Axis-IndiaToday WB first 2 phases

BJP - 36
AITC - 23
OTG - 1

If so then AITC is in a good position to win a majority, if not a solid one, in this exit poll as the first two phases are suppose to be very strong for BJP

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Democracy Times Network Exit Poll Puducherry
𝗦𝗗𝗔 (Congress+DMK): 08 Seats
𝗡𝗗𝗔 (AINRC+BJP+ADMK): 22 Seats
𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦: 0-2 Seats

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Axis My India Exit Poll WB (neck-to-neck).  If anything the BJP made more relative gains in the later phases as COVID-19 wave 2 surge got going.  So if this exit poll is correct the BJP GAINED as the COVDI-19 surge took hold.

TMC: 130-156 (44%)
BJP: 134-160 (43%)
SM: 0-2 (10%)
Oth - 0-1 ( 3%)

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Democracy Times Network Exit Poll for Assam

𝗨𝗣𝗔: 58-63 Seats
𝗡𝗗𝗔: 62-67 Seats
𝗔𝗝𝗣-𝗥𝗗: 00-02 Seats
𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦: 0-1 Seats

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News 24- Today's Chanakya exit poll for WB

TMC- 180 ±11(46%)
BJP- 108 ±11 (39%)
SM - 4 ±4 (9%)
Oth- 0 ±3 (6%)

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Democracy Times Network Exit Poll  WB

𝗔𝗜𝗧𝗖+: 160-176 Seats
𝗡𝗗𝗔: 104-120 Seats
𝗦𝗠 (Congress+ Left+ ISF): 09-13 Seats
𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦: 00 Seats

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Little Monk Exit polls

Kerala
LDF : 42%
UDF : 40%
NDA : 13%
OTH : 7%



PUDUCHERRY
NDA : 48%
SDA : 40%
OTH : 12%

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Democracy Times Network Exit Poll Kerala

𝗟𝗗𝗙: 70-78 Seats
𝗨𝗗𝗙: 62-68 Seats
𝗡𝗗𝗔: 1-2 Seats
𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦: 1-2 Seats

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Axis My India exit polls.  Other than Bihar assembly elections in 2020 they are pretty much been the most accurate exit pollster since 2015 they then famously got the Grand Alliance winning by a landslide over NDA in Bihar.  I think what make them accurate is they are not afraid to take outlying positions and do not herd.

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Initial thoughts on exit polls

TN clearly for DMK+ and Puducherry clearly for NDA.

Assam - there seems to be a relative slight shift in momentum toward UPA so election night might become 50/50

Kerala - some exit polls shows some momentum toward UDF but there  are couple of pollsters (Axis and Today's Chanakya) that do not herd shows a blowout victory for LDF.  I am beginning to suspect they might be right, that despite what I thought, the Muslim and Christian vote have swung toward LDF plus NDA taking some Hindu votes from UDF leading to a LDF landslide.

WB - Exit polls are all over the place even though more mainstream pollsters does seem to show a lead for AITC.  One pattern is clear.  Exit polls that show AITC with the lead has Left Front-INC-ISF seat count well into the double digits.  Exit polls that show BJP in the lead tend to have Left Front-INC-ISF seat count in the single digit seats.  It is clear that what will be decisive is how the Left Front-INC-ISF vote bloc have done in terms of tactical voting.  If they consolidated against AITC the BJP will win, if not AITC will win.  I still tend to believe that they did abandon Left Front-INC-ISF and voted BJP.