VT - Braun Research: Welch +39%, Scott +3% v.s. Leahy in 2022

[KaiserDave]

Scott would lose to Leahy, especially with a 50 50 senate. But, I think he could beat a new Democrat if Leahy retires.

[KaiserDave]

Obviously this should only be entertained in a Biden midterm, and even then it would be a tall order in a federal race. However, of all the deep blue states with Democrats up in 2022, it’s between MD (only with Hogan) and VT as to which one is more likely to "surprise" by electing a Republican Senator under a Democratic trifecta IMO. VT would seem like a better bet, but who knows (I’m not saying either one will happen).

Vermont also has a very small, dare I say elastic population of voters.

[KaiserDave]

Anyone think that there's a chance Leahy (and maybe even Sanders) just stick it out to box Scott out of the senate? Worst case scenario, Leahy dies before 2026, and relevantly in Vermont the special election would have to be held within 6 months.

That's possible. But I really don't know if Bernie would go for it again in 2024.

[KaiserDave]

I doubt that the good people of Vermont would elect someone who would vote to keep/make Moscow Cocaine Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader, but what do I know?

I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that Scott would support McConnell.