Is the UK actually going to break up soon?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would be highly surprised if NI was not part of the Republic by, say, 2040. There's just many reasons why the current set up is not tenable.

Scotland at this point is 50:50. The Bats have the initiative and momentum, but a miscalculation on a second referenda could derail the project; and staying too long in power could induce fatigue.

Welsh independence is ... Unlikely.