Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960 (user search)
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  Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960  (Read 2813 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,073


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« on: May 16, 2015, 02:30:37 PM »
« edited: May 16, 2015, 06:41:22 PM by Computer09 »

This Is what I think

May 1963- JFK in a landslide over any Republican candidate
May 1967- George Romney taking down LBJ
May 1971- Nixon barely winning reelection
May 1975- Jackson or Brown beats Ford in a landslide
May 1979- Reagan or Kennedy(Tossup) (Carter approval were in the low 30s and until the Iran hostages Kennedy was consistently polling ahead of Carter)
May 1983- Reagan in a close race over Mondale
May 1987- Hart over Bush
May 1991- Bush in a landslide against any democrat
May 1995- Dole over Clinton(Clinton's approval were low)
May 1999- Gore over Bush decisively(Clinton's approval were skyhig and GOP were low)
May 2003- Bush in a landslide against any democrat(Iraq was thought to be won)
May 2007- Hillary in a close race over Guiliani
May 2011- Obama over Romeny
May 2015- Hillary

Looks like they were wrong in 1967, 1971(Mcgovern won nomination and Nixon won in landslide), 1975( Carter won the nomination and it wasnt a landslide), 1979(carter beat kennedy), 1983 kinda wrong( Reagan won in a landslide),1987( Bush Won and Hart didnt win the nomination), 1991(Bush lost), 1995( Clinton won), 1999(Bush won), 2003 kinda wrong (Bush didnt win in a landslide), 2007(Obama beat Hillary), and right in 2011.

So Hillary isnt inevitable, polls this early are meaningless.


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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,073


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2015, 07:16:52 PM »

For '68, I think LBJ's reelection (obviously by a much smaller margin than '64) was assumed until the Tet Offensive.

For '80, I think Carter's reelection was assumed until the hostage crisis. Remember how rare it is for a party to lose the WH after just one term.

For '96, I think a close race was assumed. I know there were some close polls at this time, but did Dole ever really lead Clinton?

For '00, uh....no. Gore didn't close the gap with Bush until the general election campaign started. The Lewinsky scandal hurt congressional Republicans (which is why they were trailing in the generic ballot), but it was helping them in their campaign to retake the WH.


Actually Carter approval was 29% before the Hostage crises and it skyrocketed to 63% after the hostages and stayed high until March April 1980 when Carter had already taken down Kennedy
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,073


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2016, 02:58:25 AM »

Looks like this year was totally off
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