Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor

[smoltchanov]

Edwards - 51%

Vitter - 49%

(at least i hope for that or better)

[smoltchanov]

So, in legislative elections there are only 4 races between Democrat and Republican. My forecast:

SD-12 - Mizell (R) (almost won in 2011)
SD-38 - Burford (R) (though Milkovich may have some  remote chances, being very social conservative and relatively well-known after 2 previous campaigns for House)

HD-32 - Hill (by very narrow margin, because 3rd place Democrat seems to be a Republican plant, and because of  sheriff's election in Beauregard parish, which must drive turnout there...)
HD-103 - Garofalo (R) (though will root for Hunnicut (D), but district has Republican lean< Garofalo is an incumbent and has about 16% advantage after 1st round)

One more interesting duel is "a battle of 2 Carters" in JBE's HD-72, but much more experienced (and seems to be - substantially more popular) former state representative from this district "Robby" Carter (43% in first round, politically - centrist) must prevail over substantially more conservative, younger and less experienced Hunter Carter (20%)

[smoltchanov]

How many people got afraid, it's even funny. Prefer to stick with my 51% Edwards prediction....

Without Syria and refugees i wouldn't have any doubt today. Yes, polls would narrow somewhat, but that would be all. Syria introduces fear and unpredictability into election. But it made me hate Vitter even more then before (and i hated him before strongly enough).