NV-TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45%

[psychprofessor]

Nevada will be close for a variety of reasons. I'm curious though, the cross tabs suggest 55% of electorate will be first time caucus goers? Is that accurate? Is Nevada that fluid where almost 3/5th's of the population are new, first time caucus goers?

[psychprofessor]

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it?

Honestly? It just doesn't feel that way to me. I was a Hillary supporter in 2008 and I remember when it was clear Obama was going to take it and Hillary was just fighting a long and painful rearguard action. If Sanders surprises in SC, then maybe I'll feel it. But he's just not Obama, and to me he doesn't have what it takes to actually win the nomination.

I had that sinking feeling before Super Tuesday with that Kennedy endorsement that the establishment was turning against her...and then when she won Super Tuesday but they had the same amount of delegates you knew deep down that it wasn't going to end well.

It feels so different to me this time. Sanders can win but she still breaks even with delegates and I feel like when Super Tuesday and bigger states get involved she will have clear victories in SC, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia etc...) I think she will take a lead in delegates after the 3/15 primaries.

[psychprofessor]

Nevada will be close for a variety of reasons. I'm curious though, the cross tabs suggest 55% of electorate will be first time caucus goers? Is that accurate? Is Nevada that fluid where almost 3/5th's of the population are new, first time caucus goers?

The whole idea of an early caucus is pretty new to Nevada. 2004 is the first one. People in Nevada don't know their neighbors in the same way that people in more settled places like Iowa do. And many people move to Nevada in hopes of getting rich, or for the excitement. They find that it is not so exciting to be working in a hotel or casino, and move back. So the number of people moving to Nevada is greater than the people who stay. And movers tend to be young - younger people don't participate in politics to the extent that older people do.

In 2000, the Democrats appear to have had around 1000 for a late March caucus. In 2004, 2008, and 2012: 8K, 11K, and 12K. The 2012 number was for 1553 precincts at 118 sites. That averages about 8 per precinct, and 100 per site.

Republicans had 44K in 2008, and 33K in 2012. In 2008, Romney had 50% of the straw vote (there are a lot of Mormons in Nevada, and they do have a strong sense of community. But Romney had withdrawn by the time of the state convention. The state convention recessed because of a dispute between McCain and Paul supporters. Paul supporters tend to do particularly well in caucuses, conventions, because they are organized. At precinct caucuses they will volunteer to go to the county convention, or insist that they get their "fair share" of delegates. Or they will challenge the adoption of permanent rules for the convention. Romney supporters might not have shown up for the state convention. And Paul had more support than McCain at the precinct caucuses (it was Romney 51%, Paul 14%, McCain 13%).

By 2012, the Republicans had switched to a meaningful straw vote at the caucuses.

Thanks - this sounds more like it's a battle of ground games then. I remember in 2008, though, after Hillary came back and won NH, she won NV and the media essentially ignored this and publicized South Carolina much more. I wonder if the same thing will happen again - this result gets overlooked for whoever wins and the national media salivate over SC going into Super Tuesday.