This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Pericles]

As far as Labour messaging is concerned, perhaps the most pertinent observation is that it would be nice if they could stick to something - anything - for more than a day or two.

It’s going to get even worse as people in the party seem worried we have a lack of policy... which will lead to 100 tiny policies a week. Feeling very Ed Miliband 2015...

Surely avoiding that kind of messaging was a very obvious lesson from 2019? 2017 is a good example of a few simple themes being used effectively.

[Pericles]

This is worth watching (and isn’t a comment on the effectiveness of this strategy!)

It reminds me of when a ‘swing’ voter in 1997 was telling Blair he needed to bring back the birch to sort out anti social behaviour.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-57849730

He didn't seem to have much of a narrative, when he was asked about child poverty he just talked about school meals, he didn't get a good soundbite about how the Tories were worse than Labour. It was nice that those voters liked him, but it seems they didn't think his policies were practical, so that's one of those gut feelings about the left that are hard to overcome.

[Pericles]

That first gentleman who spoke to him very much wanted Labour to have uno voce, uno duce from here on in.

Maybe Starmer should withdraw the whip from some more people, it worked for Boris. Still, that'd be a high risk move.

[Pericles]

People have been doing the same ad nauseam with Boris Johnson and he isn't as universally reviled as Corbyn. I think it's because has some redeeming features - humourous, intelligent, annoys the right people - which Corbyn didn't have.

I mean Corbyn always seemed empathetic and caring even the polls showed that his ratings on that metric were higher than Boris's. A lot of people forget his empathetic response to Grenfell Tower fire compared to May's percived robotic response was the moment momentum in the 2017 campagin shifted.

Unfortunately the 2017 election had already happened by that point, otherwise perhaps the outcome would have been different and the country better off, but we'll never know.

[Pericles]

On the last point, I agree with Starmer that it was impossible for Labour to ever agree to May's deal. Her deal was too hard for Remainers to ever accept, and Labour would have been split the other way and lost a ton of votes to the LibDems and the Greens. May also was not credibly negotiating with Labour-she made no real concessions to them, and even if she agreed on a soft Brexit, the Tory leadership contenders had already said they would tear up any deal she made. Maybe Labour could have gotten away with backing Brexit if she'd tried to meet them in the middle in 2016 or 2017, but it was too late by April 2019. By that point, Labour just had to make the best of its position by taking a strong, credible Remain position (a 'final say' referendum on Boris' deal could have been easier to sell than negotiating their own soft deal that they wouldn't support) and more importantly, having a winning leadership and winning platform outside of Brexit.

[Pericles]

No guarantee that these proposed changes will pass, according to some informed comment.

Some pro-Starmer spinners putting it about that even a defeat would "strengthen" him.

I - for now at least - will refrain from further comment.

Labour needs to appeal to swing voters for sure but they can't keep showing this stupid disunity. Get your act together or it'll be another term of recriminations about an election you should have won.

[Pericles]

This is a good idea (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/24/labour-would-empower-unions-to-drive-up-wages-says-angela-rayner), and it is nice to see Labour taking inspiration from NZ Labour (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125059465/government-announces-fair-pay-agreements-plan-in-radical-overhaul-of-new-zealand-employment-laws). I get the sense that policy-wise, Starmer is pretty similar to Jacinda Ardern, doing stuff like this, and so it's the same moderate left-wing style. That would be great progress for the UK, NZ for example reversed decades worth of benefit cuts in this year's budget and child poverty has decreased since 2017, but there are disappointments too such as the failure to solve the housing crisis. Some policy sacrifices do have to be made, given Jacinda got 50% of the vote in hindsight she made slightly too many but oh well, but even this type of Labour government will make a big difference towards reducing inequality.

[Pericles]

What is THIGMOO?

[Pericles]

The lead up to Starmer's speech is looking like a mess, so a lot of pressure is being placed on this one speech to save his leadership. I don't see him overcoming the pressure. I hope he succeeds, but if he doesn't, he should consider putting the party first as Andrew Little did in NZ and letting someone more charismatic and capable take over. That kind of selflessness (not that selfless since Little wouldn't have become a Minister if he led Labour to a crushing defeat) is rare in politics so it'll either have to be somehow a forced change or since it's Labour limp onto another defeat knowing that they're not presenting the strongest possible alternative.

[Pericles]

Labour is embarassing-this conference looks like a mess without Starmer making a strong positive impression, just showing a divided and inward focused party. They are not showing the discipline that they should be in order to win. McDonald's sabotage is appalling behavior, but nobody has clean hands. Starmer better deliver a great speech and somehow set it right in those few minutes, but it's looking grim for him, Labour and the UK.

[Pericles]

Did the left actively undermine Tony Blair when he was Leader of the Opposition? Or was he so far ahead in the polls that they didn't bother? It seems that with Starmer it's the classic Opposition spiral of bad polls producing division and leadership speculation, which produces more bad polls and so on.

[Pericles]

Yes this was my point- we would still lose a referendum on PR!

Exactly, this thing is a sideshow because unfortunately I think the British people will just reflexively vote against always having hung parliaments. Labour just needs to make their coalition both broader and more efficient, while there are good reasons for PR some of the advocacy for it comes across as trying to escape this.

[Pericles]

What makes it hard to attract quality people to run for office ? being an MP seems like a nice and cushy job ?

I imagine that the abuse and threats made against MPs in the Brexit debate turned some people off.

[Pericles]

It's still a travesty that Boris didn't get more fines, he is guilty as sin. Hopefully Sue Gray eviscerates him as a consolation prize. In any case, he won't be fully secure in his position so it will be fun to see him suffer like Theresa May did.

[Pericles]

Labour should just remember they can win by default, as the ALP just did, and that is the most reliable path for an opposition party. They just need to be not toxic, or less toxic than the Tories. It amazes me how people who get paid for their takes pay so little attention to current politics.

[Pericles]

Interesting Times Article about Durham gate- apparently the surveys are long (duh) and some centre around Keir being given a football shirt which he poses with.

Of course as he does this on other campaign trips you could argue it was campaign related.

I still can’t see how they can change their retrospective fines policy but still have a niggling feeling he will get fined.

Any sign that Starmer would listen to Nick Brown's stupid idea of standing in the leadership election if he got fined and resigned? That would be an incredible act of bad faith, a huge waste of the Labour Party's time and precious resources, and leave the party with a weakened leader.

[Pericles]

Some people "close to" Starmer seem to think he is genuinely confident he won't be fined.

(though of course that *could* be a front/bluff)

If he wasn't confident, he wouldn't have made the pledge. He's the lawyer so hopefully he's right but presumably he doesn't have an inside source and actually know what they'll do.

[Pericles]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect. We might well know in the coming week, anyway.

(and the even wackier rumours are that Johnson might call a snap election to "take advantage" of this if it happens - can't possibly see how that could in any way go wrong, at all)

Are they a Corbynite or right-wing? Never heard of this person and sounds like I haven't missed out on anything.

[Pericles]

Starmer's recent rhetoric of sticking by Tory spending plans and not even recognising increased spending as a solution to problems is infuriating. His talk about 'reform' is hopefully just meaningless tripe, but maybe it's something actively harmful? I am coming around to the view of those on the left-he is just as much of a pathological liar as Boris Johnson.

[Pericles]

Looks like Starmer's strategy of Thomas Deweying himself into No. 10 is finally starting to show its flaws.

Rishi Sunak may be many things, but a Harry Truman he is most certainly not.

To be fair, Truman was seen as almost a joke before he won his upset-that's a key part of the story. I can't see Sunak having what it takes though, and in any case I think any government would be doomed with this record and in this economy.

[Pericles]

I can say that a 24 point win was not enough for NZ Labour to 'unbox' themselves from those types of promises so they both have not made transformative change and just a few years later are about to get thrown out anyway (perhaps even because they did not do enough on cost of living and public services seem to have gotten worse not better). I hope you're right that UK politics operate a lot differently. Really though, I am pretty sceptical that Starmer has a good idea how to improve the UK, winning the 2024 election is not a governance plan.

[Pericles]

Is he trying to make an election promise not to raise taxes at all or is he trying to dodge the question so he can pull a Biden and say he's only raising taxes on the rich?
Keir Starmer vows not to increase income tax for workers in major election promise

In an interview with the Mirror, the Labour leader pledged not to hike levies - including income tax.

Making the landmark promise, he said: “We will do nothing to increase the burden on working people, whether it comes to tax or anything else. They have paid a heavy price for the incompetence of the government after the last 13 years.”

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves last weekend promised she would not increase the top rate of income tax. Asked if he could make the same promise for those on the basic rate, Mr Starmer said: “We're not increasing tax across the board.” Pushed on whether he would put up income tax, he said: “No.”

It looks like he is making life hard for himself in government. Can he really raise the top rate of income tax without breaking his promise-or is that frozen now until 2029? Also, I'm not fully across Britain's tax system, but wouldn't some indirect taxes-aka levies-increase automatically? Even a promise to not increase the tax burden at all on 'working people' will be difficult to keep.

[Pericles]

I note that the anti-Ed briefing from "Labour sources" (though my suspicion remains that in this case singular may be more appropriate than plural) starting again after the Sunak net zero announcement. Though what was the Dennis the Menace comparison all about - aren't they quite a popular character with a lot of people (especially the types *supposedly* sceptical about green stuff)

These leakers sound like vile people, climate action should be a basic principle of the Labour Party. While Labour should want to win, the toxic cynics in Starmer's office seem to judge electability by not getting attacked by the Tories rather than whether the position is popular and defensible to the public. It looks so far like they aren't being listened to fortunately.

[Pericles]

Some interesting stuff from conference about possible campaign lines for the coming GE.

Once this is over, it will hopefully be even harder to claim there is "no difference" between Labour and the Tories (though that, needless to say, won't stop the usual suspects trying)

I'm not concerned that Starmer is a Red Rishi, but I don't believe his current promises are going to achieve his goals. He has ruled out so much that either he does not understand what he needs to do to fix public services and the economy, or he is planning on breaking his promises*.

*As has been said, Britain has some tolerance for this but governing a lot differently from his 'mandate' is a questionable strategy (and yes, it's a very different context than doing it to Labour members).

[Pericles]

It is unacceptable for Starmer to have justified Israel's total siege of Gaza, when he would know full well that it is a war crime. He talked a big game about how "honesty and integrity matter", but after years of observing his leadership I really do not think he is an honest person or has integrity. Maybe in that specific case he just slipped up accidentally? However, at this point I can only see a marginal improvement to the UK's prospects and to public trust in government under a government that Starmer leads.