Morning Consult/POLITICO: Biden, Bernie Lead Trump

[wbrocks67]

Joe Biden 42%
Trump 35%

Bernie Sanders 40%
Trump 35%

Elizabeth Warren 35%
Trump 35%

Kamala Harris 32%
Trump 35%

Cory Booker 28%
Trump 35%

Beto O’Rourke 28%
Trump 36%

Pete Buttigieg 27%
Trump 35%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016c-b125-df7f-a16f-ff2f3dbb0000

[Pollster]

Looks like they didn't push undecideds at all, which is likely the reason for these numbers being so low for both Trump and the Dems.

[Skye]

Numbers when the "probably would vote for" option is included:

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1164159933455245313

[Person Man]

Undecideds appear to be breaking between even and slightly for Trump. I was kind of expecting that but don't think the Democrat is in trouble until you start seeing undecideds just defaulting to Trump en masse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As expected, Biden is getting a bump from the Jill Biden exposure. Warren bounce wasnt substaining enough

[GeorgiaModerate]

Undecideds appear to be breaking between even and slightly for Trump. I was kind of expecting that but don't think the Democrat is in trouble until you start seeing undecideds just defaulting to Trump en masse.

Nope, look at the actual data.  This is the change from the base numbers to those including "probably vote for":

Biden +7 -> +6 (Trump gains 1)
Sanders +5 -> +5 (no change)
Warren even -> +2 (Trump loses 2)
Harris -3 -> even (loses 3)
Booker -7 -> -3 (loses 4)
O'Rourke -8 -> -4 (loses 4)
Buttigieg -8 -> -6 (loses 2)

When "probably" is added, Trump picks up a point against Biden, sees no change against Sanders, and loses ground to everyone else.

[Sir Mohamed]

No candidate above 42%, or mostly under 40%? Completely useless poll.

[Gustaf]

Undecideds appear to be breaking between even and slightly for Trump. I was kind of expecting that but don't think the Democrat is in trouble until you start seeing undecideds just defaulting to Trump en masse.

Nope, look at the actual data.  This is the change from the base numbers to those including "probably vote for":

Biden +7 -> +6 (Trump gains 1)
Sanders +5 -> +5 (no change)
Warren even -> +2 (Trump loses 2)
Harris -3 -> even (loses 3)
Booker -7 -> -3 (loses 4)
O'Rourke -8 -> -4 (loses 4)
Buttigieg -8 -> -6 (loses 2)

When "probably" is added, Trump picks up a point against Biden, sees no change against Sanders, and loses ground to everyone else.

This seems to confirm that some portion of the polling gap between Biden/Bernie and the rest of the field in Trump matchups is due to name recognition.