Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Harry Hayfield]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

[Harry Hayfield]

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

Change on FPV 2011
Lab -4.7% FF +5.1% Soc +2.0% FG -13.4%
Swing from Lab to FF of 4.9%

[Harry Hayfield]

Dublin West by-election FIRST COUNT: Patrick Nulty 8,665; David McGuinness 7,742; Ruth Coppinger 7,542; Eithne Loftus 5,263; Paul Donnelly 3,173; Roderic O'Gorman 1,787; Barry Ceasar Hunt 775; John Frank Kidd 311; Gerry Bermingham 185; Brendan Patrick Doris 95; Jim Tallon 73; Beeny Cooney 51; Peadar O Ceallaigh 40
Quota 17,852, so "9 and 5" was accurate.

(Source: RTE News)
Change on 2011: Fine Gael -5% Labour +8% Fianna Fail -16% Sinn Fein +4% Socialist +7% Independent +4%. Swing: Fianna Fail to Labour of 12%

[Harry Hayfield]

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty	8,665	8,885	10,186	13,027	17,636
McGuinness	7,742	7,935	8,720	9,873	11,590
Coppinger	7,542	7,834	9,368	9,873
Loftus	5,263	5,410	5,942
Donnelly	3,173	3,309
O'Gorman	1,787	1,925
Caesar Hunt	775
Kidd	311
Bermingham	185
Doris	95
Tallon	73
Cooney	51
Ó Ceallaigh	40

I'm surprised Donnelly was eliminated at the same time as O'Gorman when O'Gorman's vote could have theoretically pushed Donnelly over the threshold to recieve some reimbursement for his expenses.  Not that 60% of the Green Party (second count) vote would have gone to a Shinner (as would have been necessary for Donnelly to cross the expenses threshold) with Labour, a Socialist and Fianna Fail still in play (I doubt FG would have gotten many) but still.  Or is the threshold in that election not 1/4 of the quota (just over 12.5% of the vote in the single-winner case)?

How was the tie in the second-to-last count broken in favor of FF?  Will there be another recount?

There are four methods of breaking a tie in an STV election
1. Forwards Tie-Breaking
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the first stage or at the earliest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

2. Backwards Tie-Breaking:
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the previous stage or at the latest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

3. Borda Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the highest [lowest] Borda score. See [2].

4. Coombs Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the fewest [most] last place votes.