Confirmation Hearing - 1184AZ for GM (Confirmed)

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

I'm just going to drop in here to make a few comments about the unemployment numbers.

I have developed a formula that bases unemployment numbers on three factors: regional activity (affects regions separately), federal activity (affects all regions equally) and legislative/environmental factors. Not going to post the actual formula here, but below is a brief summary that should give everyone a decent idea of what is involved.

Regional activity is separated into differently weighted categories such as voting averages, quantity of debate (as well as amendments offered), and quantity of statements. Also, the amount of work done in a particular amount of time is considered (for instance, a region that has passed 2 pieces of legislation in 40 days, this is viewed less favorably than a region that has passed 10 pieces of legislation in the same amount of time.  This process generates an activity index for each region.

Random numbers are pulled from a normal distribution centered on a particular mean between the lowest and highest regional index. This mean, as well as the standard deviation, are computed via a scaled down activity index for the House and the Senate.

Other legislation is factored in separately. For instance, if Lincoln decides to go through with their high-speed rail project, then this will generate jobs and unemployment will decrease separately from the activity formula. This calculation will be made as realistic as the legislation allows. Environmental factors will also be considered. For instance, if the hurricane reported in the Atlasian Star hits Miami, unemployment in the South will increase.

When I spoke of a 'formula' in the Atlasian Star, I was referring to a formula to quantify activity. Obviously, such a formula would not be applied to policy simulation because it really isn't possible to standardize some sort of realistic formula that would be affected by every piece of legislation that is passed. However, I have recently started to interest myself in certain economic models that could assist in accurately modeling, for instance, the economic effects of taxation.