Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[pppolitics]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

Democrats should start a new campaign and encourage panhandle to secede from Florida and join Alabama.

[pppolitics]

OMG, please Florida, elect Scott!

You mean, Gov. Medicare Fraud

[pppolitics]

Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.

Texas uber alles.

Really, it's more "good D night but bad in FL" than anything.

Before tonight, I was willing to conceed that Indiana and Missouri were each a coin toss and wound't lose sleep over losing each of them, but losing Florida would really hurt.

[pppolitics]

Sinema is winning Maricopa 49.1% to 48.8% with 84% in.


Is it possible for a Democrat to win Maricopa county and lose the state?

[pppolitics]

If Sinema wins Maricopa county, does that means that she wins the state?

[pppolitics]

McAdams up by 10 points - 53% reporting in UT-4!1!!1!

Yeah, the early vote was amazing for Dems in UT. Should be a pickup. More sunbelt suburbs coming through.

Concerned about Sinema though. Dems can't afford another loss in Senate.

Sinema is up in Maricopa county though and that is usually (always?) how the state is won.

[pppolitics]

How come nobody is talking about the Arizona?

Do people here know that there's actually a senate race there?

[pppolitics]

What's going on in Arizona?

It's like they reported half the votes then went home.

[pppolitics]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1060040816624893952

It's over.

Florida was such a flop.    Gawd I wish we could just replace the entire FL Dem Party.

As I said before the election, if the Florida Democratic Party manages to lose both the governor race and senate race, the whole party should be disbanded and future election campaigns should be run from DNC's headquarter.

[pppolitics]

Rural counties looking pretty good for Heller.

In the end, it's going go to be up to Clark County and Washoe County.

[pppolitics]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

I know Katie Hill.

...and I don't mean, I met her once.

I mean, I know Katie Hill.

I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES!

[pppolitics]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not

Is it even plausible for a Democrat to win Maricopa county and lose the state?

[pppolitics]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

I know Katie Hill.

...and I don't mean, I met her once.

I mean, I know Katie Hill.

I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES!

YES! She will be excellent in congress! I always knew she was going to win.

You had more faith that I did.

[pppolitics]

Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes.

If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green

[pppolitics]

TUCSON, Ariz. - There still is no clear winner in the close race between Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema.

The race remains too close to call between the two Congresswomen from Arizona, and Garrett Archer -- and analyst from the Arizona Secretary of State's office -- says hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted.

Archer says most of the ballots that remain to be counted are early ballots that were sent late, and provisional ballots that need to be verified.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060213643361415168

With nearly all of the ballots cast on Election Day counted, McSally leads Sinema by about 16,000 votes -- or about 0.9 percent .

In Pima County, election officials say nearly 80,000 ballots still need to be counted. Sinema carried a strong lead in Pima County, with 55.2 percent of the vote counted so far, while McSally only received 42.8 percent. County election officials say they won't resume counting those ballots until Thursday.

https://twitter.com/pimaarizona/status/1060249622541680640

The vast majority of ballots to be counted, however, are in Maricopa County, election officials say. Sinema has a narrow lead there with 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to McSally's 48.6 percent.

https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/arizona-senate-results-still-counting

[pppolitics]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump.

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

[pppolitics]

When should Arizona results come in?

Tomorrow at 5pm!!!

**For those who want data now**
Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland

 I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets.
These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage):

the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this

Lantana Canyon(+11.9R)
Nightingale(+19.2R)
***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one
Bayshore (+14.2R)
Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct

you get the gist
keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county

2016 election precinct results :
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf

2018 early/eday precinct results:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf

Let's say that the uncounted ballot voted the same way as the counted ballot so far, who would win?

[pppolitics]

Anyone who has watched Arizona before knows that McSally is basically done for once the rest comes in.

Well, Maricopa County is 60% of the voting population and is more Republican leaning than the rest of the state.

Pima County is 17% of the voting population.

If Sinema is still head ahead in Maricopa County and after counting is done, it's unlikely that she would lose.

[pppolitics]

Maricopa is dropping at 5 right?

All of it, or just some?

[pppolitics]

What in the world?

Sinema, now in the lead.

[pppolitics]

Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes.

Is that all of it or is there more?

[pppolitics]

Can I get a link to the results you're looking at? NYT has McSally up by 17,000 with 7 precincts yet to report.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[pppolitics]

Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes.

Is that all of it or is there more?

~4 more of those to come next week.

I mean, Maricopa, specifically.

[pppolitics]

looks like Maricopa still has another ~350K to drop

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060684982547472384