The Generation Z vote (aka new voters)

[OneJ]

Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html






... and that's just what I felt like bringing up in the 2-3~ min. I decided was appropriate for this post.


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This is the thing about you Ljube - consistently throughout this campaign you have been unable to even comprehend the idea that Trump may be an asshole, or a cheat, or whatever. The fact that you felt you even had standing to make that post, as if it was even debatable that Trump is a decent person, is a testament to how far in the crapper we already are and how difficult the next 4 years are going to be for people who are still connected to this reality.

That you can't even begin to acknowledge any of this makes me question just what kind of man you are.

I couln't agree anymore.

[Ljube]

Virginia, I already posted about all those examples and discredited your interpretation.

For instance, he wasn't mocking a disabled journalist, he was mocking a hack who happens to be disabled. In other words, he wasn't mocking his physical appearance, but his character.

Obviously, you and I live in two different worlds. I believe that my world is the world of reality and yours is one of fantasy, created by your own delusions and reinforced by the bubble you live in. However, I expect that the number of people inhabiting your world will decrease in the next couple of years, so that by the time the election 2020 comes, Trump will be able to win in a landslide.

[Ljube]

Honestly, this election has almost made me give up on religion, or at the veey least stop going to church. The absurd number of evangelicals who acted like Trump was their savior and somehow justified all this sh**t was downright sickening. It made me realize that being religious has limited impact, if any, on someone's moral compass.

What sh**t? All complaints against Trump are coming from the PC police.
PC police accusations are sh**t. And normal people are sick and tired of PC police.

Trump is telling it like it is. That's the biggest part of his appeal.

[Virginiá]

For instance, he wasn't mocking a disabled journalist, he was mocking a hack who happens to be disabled. In other words, he wasn't mocking his physical appearance, but his character.

You really need help. Really though - because either you're still playing the same troll act for over 12 - 18 months, which in itself is pathetic, or you've drank so much kool-aid that you actually believe that. And I know there are lots of you guys out there that actually do. See, that was Trump's excuse, and it's very convenient that every time something happens that makes Trump look bad, he gives a really weak excuse, and suddenly people like you are parroting as if whatever Trump says is to be immediately believed 100% as undebatable truth. I don't get why anyone would trust any politician like that.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I think it's pretty obvious, considering that Trump is just as popular as Obama in this poll shows that Gen-Zers didn't like Clinton.

Considering I'm pretty close to Gen Z (I was born in 2000), I can say that Sanders and Trump are by far the most popular politicians of this generation. We're basically like less politically correct, anti-establishment Millennials.

[Person Man]

I think it's pretty obvious, considering that Trump is just as popular as Obama in this poll shows that Gen-Zers didn't like Clinton.

Considering I'm pretty close to Gen Z (I was born in 2000), I can say that Sanders and Trump are by far the most popular politicians of this generation. We're basically like less politically correct, anti-establishment Millennials.

Again, this is all anecdotal. Do you live in an almost uniformly white area? That may explain it. My old high school (Fort Zumwalt West in St. Charles County) voted for Clinton despite being over 80% white and being in a very Republican area. Point is, you can't generalize an entire generation with a small, unrepresentative sample of people. Perhaps the people you know are anti-PC or support the alt-Right, but I'd be willing to bet that their skepticism towards minorities is nowhere near a majority of that generation, given that it's only plurality white.

"Skepticism"

[BoAtlantis]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

[Shadows]

You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic -- you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people -- now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks -- they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America."

"But the other basket -- and I know this because I see friends from all over America here -- I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas -- as well as, you know, New York and California -- but that other basket of people are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they're just desperate for change. It doesn't really even matter where it comes from. They don't buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won't wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well."


The more I look @ this - The more I feel Clinton may have been right - How can you dispute that there are some deplorable people among Trump supports (& significant numbers).

And btw Ljube has gone crazy I feel!

[Shadows]

We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

Exit polls for the 18-24 range would be optimal for this test. Depending on your view of generational ranges, it should have anywhere from 2-4 years worth genZ voters I imagine.

Given how Democratic 18-24 year olds were this year and in 2012, how diverse newer generations are and how completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal Trump is, one needs to forgive me when I say that I doubt GenZ voters are going to be majority Republican, and probably not even that much less Democratic than 18-24 year old Millennials now. Such a huge rightwards shift in the span of just 4~ years seems highly unlikely.

Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.

Virgina dude is right though. And I can settle this once & for all.

@Rosie
TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL -

@Rosie
DONALD TRUMP IS MENTALLY UNSTABLE -

LESS THAN 3 WEEKS TO STOP HIM AMERICA

Even Rosie O'Donnell agrees with him!

[libertpaulian]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

I'd like to see the Catholic vs. Evangelical vs. Mainline breakdown as well.

[JA]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I'd be interested to see what happens when they separate from their parents by moving out and/or attending college. What effect will that have on their rate of religious participation?

[Person Man]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I can buy this. Who are the parents of these kids? Gen xers and the oldest millenials? A 22 year old having a kid in 2002?

[OneJ]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I can buy this. Who are the parents of these kids? Gen xers and the oldest millenials? A 22 year old having a kid in 2002?

According to many sources, mostly Gen X and Millennials.

[BoAtlantis]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I would like to see the breakdown by race and theology as well. I wonder if a majority of the popular churches will be gays-accepting, socially liberal type.

People have predicted death of Christianity and churches yet it never became true. Religion seems to be cyclical.

[Figueira]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I can buy this. Who are the parents of these kids? Gen xers and the oldest millenials? A 22 year old having a kid in 2002?

Some young baby boomers as well. 1963+38=2001.

But yeah, Gen X overall.

[Person Man]

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

It's really not that surprising. Minorities are usually more religious than whites, and the youngest generation is still more likely to attend church at rates higher than the generation above it because their parents may make them go with them.

I can buy this. Who are the parents of these kids? Gen xers and the oldest millenials? A 22 year old having a kid in 2002?

Some young baby boomers as well. 1963+38=2001.

But yeah, Gen X overall.

Boomer moms could of been having at least few kids until this decade. There are of course new boomer dads. Look at Trump Himself. He was 59 on His last child. My dad's age today!

[Beet]

Given the disparity between Hillary's performance and Obama's approval rating, I believe Donald Trump benefited from the 'cool' factor which may have had a greater impact on youth than older adults, (although it has an impact on both). Someone seen as a brash, aggressive upender of the status quo who gets people talking, will attract more kids than a staid politician, especially as many of them don't pay attention to politicians anyway. How much of an impact it had on this poll I don't know, but it likely had an impact. Politics is a popularity contest and aggressive self-promoters know how to get popularity. Clinton never figured this out and she would never have even been the nominee had it not been for her being the wife of the president. Trump had this figured out already by the late 1980s.

[UncleSam]

While it's almost certain Gen Z will be more conservative than the millennial generation, a word of caution. Many / most of those surveyed haven't gone to college yet, and the overwhelming majority students who go to college become more liberal as a result. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if in four years this precise sample is left-leaning, albeit not as far as the generation that preceded them.

[Beet]

Most high school students never go to college. Those that don't make it get dropped into the basket of deplorables.

[Person Man]

While it's almost certain Gen Z will be more conservative than the millennial generation, a word of caution. Many / most of those surveyed haven't gone to college yet, and the overwhelming majority students who go to college become more liberal as a result. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if in four years this precise sample is left-leaning, albeit not as far as the generation that preceded them.

If Trump never becomes popular, I can see Z being at least as popular. New voters keep skewing more and more liberal.

[Virginiá]

I would also have to question the extent to which their ideological leanings translate into partisan leanings. For a heavily diverse generation like Z, being less liberal or moderate or even somewhat conservative doesn't necessarily mean they will become Republicans. Obviously we can see variations of this behavior among existing adult non-white Democrats. Then again, I'm not sure those vague labels helps this situation much anyway.

That being said, if Republicans were to significantly narrow the gap long-term with Z, they'd have to make serious inroads with non-white youth or win a huge majority of the whites, which probably isn't going to happen. Considering how bad they are doing with existing non-white voters, including the current 18-29 year old non-white youth, I don't see how they do this. Especially over the next 4 years.

[Person Man]

In fact, the fact that Z is more diverse might make that generation slightly more center-to-right and yet slightly less Republican. What comes after Generation Z? We are out of letters. I think some people referred to those born after 2000 as the "Homeland Generation", meaning they were born into a world where the country will always be involved in some sort of minor war and simply not just arresting people when a drug gang or labor union takes over some jungle a cruise boat away.