2024 - A Blank Canvas

[Tekken_Guy]

Why did Charlie Christ even lose the primary to begin with?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Whitmer the frontrunner for Stabenow’s seat if she just lost re-election? Shouldn’t Democrats go for someone who is still in office?

[Tekken_Guy]

UPDATE: Gov. Ron DeSantis has assembled his own redistricting map, which adds further conflict to the current battle between the two houses of the Florida Legislature and DeSantis himself. Fast forwarding within this TL, I am going to now make some subtle changes to the House predictions in Florida assuming the numbering remains consistent, the VRA district DeSantis's plan scraps between Tallahassee and Jacksonville remains, and the prevailing Republican trend in congressional polling persists:

• After initially scrapping Al Lawson's 5th District connecting majority Black and liberal sections of Tallahassee and Jacksonville, a compromise is reached to keep it as the renumbered 3rd with a small finger extending to Gainesville. Kat Cammack will now represent the 5th with the rest of the Panhandle and First Coast seats remaining put.
• Asides from a minor change to add relatively purple Winter Park and Maitland, the Seminole and south Volusia-based 7th drawn by DeSantis survives with Cory Mills as the freshman incumbent. The rest of Orlando and Orange County remain dominated by the 9th of Darren Soto and the 10th of Randolph Bracy, with Walt Disney World, Doctor Phillips and such golf-oriented suburbs as Windermere and Bay Hill going to Daniel Webster's 11th now centered on The Villages. (A conservative district dominated by tourists, golfers and retirees...what a concept!)
• The GOP does get their Tampa Bay monopoly by the narrowest of margins. Kathy Castor ultimately runs in the more Democratic 15th to the east, but still narrowly loses to State Rep. Mike Beltran. Veterans Anna Paulina Luna and Jay Collins still win in the respective 13th (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) and 14th (most of Tampa, Carrollwood) districts, with eventual House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Vern Buchanan's 16th in Sarasota (where he wins north of 60% in reelection) being the closest thing to a competitive race in the outskirts of the region.
• All of Miami's three Republicans will still be reelected by favorable margins. The only other congressional change (asides from my projected victory for Dale Holness for a full term in the 20th) will be that while the 23rd will still stretch from Boca Raton and Parkland (site of that horrible school shooting in 2018) down to Fort Lauderdale and Dania Beach, it is now even more narrowly Democratic to where a stronger Republican other than what I projected enters the race and wins over Ted Deutch in what will still be a surprise pickup.

Now, back to the TL for some current events:

• A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
• Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
• Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:

• As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
• With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

There is absolutely no way on earth Jim Jordan is going to be running for Senate in 2024. If he wanted to move to the senate, he would have done so this cycle for the Portman seat. He is one of the most powerful members of the house even after he is termed out at judiciary, and isn’t giving that up to start from zero in the Senate. Will there be other GOP candidates in Ohio or will Jordan clear the field?

Also, if McConnell is trying to ensure Cameron is his replacement I think he’d wait until Beshear loses re-election in 2023 and having a governor he trusts making the pick. Or he makes sure the alternatives are unpalatable, like Matt Bevin.

[Tekken_Guy]

UPDATE 1: Alabama's redistricting plan has been struck down by a federal panel of three judges - two of them Trump appointees - over VRA concerns. This likely means that Alabama will have two districts where a Black candidate of choice (very likely a Democrat) has a fighting chance to win a congressional seat: the usual 7th District in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, plus a reworked 2nd District stretching across the Black Belt from Montgomery to Mobile. If this comes to pass, I wouldn't be shocked if longtime Republican Mike Rogers from the 3rd decides to retire as he hasn't declared if he's going to run or not (The 2nd's current incumbent, freshman Republican Barry Moore, who is a Trumpian conservative, has already declared he's running for a second term). While there is a chance that this prototypical new 2nd may be competitive (it is about as Democratic as the area G.K. Butterfield is vacating in North Carolina), I'm not holding my breath and predict the new 2nd will be a narrow Democratic pickup.
UPDATE 2: In Tennessee Jim Cooper has decided to retire instead of face likely defeat in his new 5th which has been dragged into eastern Williamson County and a few rural counties on the southern fringes of the Nashville market, so if this new map holds up it looks like the Democrats will be reduced to their one seat in Memphis.
Overall, consider the new updates in Alabama and Tennessee an even swap of partisan control in what will (in this TL) remain a robust Republican majority.

August 4, 2023
SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR MAKES SECOND RUN FOR PRESIDENT
In front of a large crowd in Minneapolis early Saturday afternoon, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy as the 7th Democrat to enter the presidential field. This is not the first time for the three-term Minnesota Senator, as she ran in 2020 as a center-left "Midwest Moderate" who emphasized a public option for healthcare, consumer protection and advocacy, and a populist economic package centered on infrastructure and agriculture, while opposing such progressive causes as free college tuition and a "Green New Deal". In carrying forth that same message for the 2024 race, Klobuchar also announced to her audience, "I have decided to go all-in for America. That is why I will be focusing my efforts on running to be YOUR President and not returning to the Senate after this election."

With the announcement, Klobuchar aims to compete with Pete Buttigieg for the aforementioned "Midwest Moderate" vote, with progressives largely favoring Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Kamala Harris (the latter of whom has a large lead with nonwhite voters). Though polling in the single digits, Klobuchar's team insists that, "Once Americans see the whole picture of what's at stake, especially with the dangerous legacy of Donald Trump continuing on without him, they will see the need for a pragmatic progressive consensus builder. That is who Amy is, and voters should expect nothing more, nothing less". Klobuchar's decision to forego reelection to the Senate also opens up her seat to a wide-open primary with two speculated candidates, Democratic DFL U.S. Rep and original "Squad" member Ilhan Omar and Republican businessman and current presidential candidate Mike Lindell both proclaiming they will not be running for the Senate, with Lindell stating "Like Amy Klobuchar, I'm also going all-in on the White House and look forward to beating her and her attempts to try to steal the election." However, one Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate has decided to enter so far, with Lieutenant Governor Lori Swanson announcing shortly after Klobuchar's campaign kickoff that she will be a candidate for the now-open Senate seat.

August 4, 2023
FORMER SEC. OF STATE POMPEO ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
At noon on Saturday, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially launched his bid for President at Charles Koch Arena on the campus of Wichita State University. The 59-year old Pompeo, who served in the Trump administration since Donald Trump's third day as President - first as Director of the CIA and later as Secretary of State, grew up in Orange County, California and eventually moved to Wichita in 1998 to lead a combined aircraft parts manufacturer and later an oilfield equipment manufacturer - both with sizable funding from local conglomerate Koch Industries. Pompeo would enter public service in the 2000s, first as a member of the Republican National Committee representing Kansas, and then as a three-term Congressman who had just been elected to a fourth term when Trump appointed Pompeo to lead the CIA upon his ascendence to the White House.

In his announcement, Pompeo intends to make foreign policy a big part of his campaign, declaring, "As Secretary of State under Donald Trump, I fought to defend America and her allies from her enemies, fought to denuclearize North Korea and Iran, and was relentless in my calling out of China and their barbaric practices. That is what "America First" and "peace through strength" look like, and you will deserve nothing less than that as your President." Pompeo also has built his campaign around "defending American manufacturing", "standing up for life from conception to death", and "putting the healthcare establishment that has steered America in too many directions when it comes to fighting COVID in their place". Pompeo also draws attention at the well-attended rally due to the attendance of the arena's namesake, Koch Industries CEO and co-owner Charles Koch and his son Chase, despite reports that Koch and his network intended to stay out of partisan politics in the post-Trump era. Within hours, Pompeo is instantly labeled "the Koch candidate" - a claim Pompeo's campaign vehemently denies, with some speculating if Pompeo's candidacy is a vehicle for Koch Industries to win further Department of Defense contracts in a potential Pompeo Administration.

Re: MN -- Lori Swanson is the former AG. The current LG is Peggy Flanagan. Which one did you mean? Or are they both running? Also, is Dean Phillips running? What about Keith Ellison (BTW did Ellison win re-election in 2022)?

[Tekken_Guy]

A few questions about the Senate
-Has Rosendale cleared the primary field in Montana or are other candidates expected to get in?
-Are there any other candidates besides Whitmer and James in MI? Or are the fields cleared there as well?
-Is Andy Biggs going to run in AZ-SEN?

[Tekken_Guy]

So, if I'm not mistaken, the following house members are not running for re-election:

Republicans:
AZ-01: David Schweikert (running for Senate)
AZ-05: Andy Biggs (running for Senate)
AZ-09: Paul Gosar (running for Senate)
CA-20: Kevin McCarthy (running for Senate) - Is Mike Garcia switching to this seat? If not I'd like to see Vince Fong run.
CA-41: Ken Calvert (retiring) - Melissa Melendez is running, I believe.
MI-10: John James (running for Senate)
MO-02: Ann Wagner (running for Senate)
MT-02: Matt Rosendale (running for Senate)
OH-04: Jim Jordan (running for Senate)
TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (running for Senate)
TX-05: Lance Gooden (running for Senate)
TX-21: Chip Roy (running for Senate)
TX-25: Roger Williams (running for Senate)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (running for Senate)
WI-05: Scott Fitzgerald (running for Senate)
WI-08: Mike Gallagher (running for Senate)
WV-02: Alex Mooney (running for Senate) - Does McKinley go for it again?

Democrats:
CA-14: Eric Swalwell (running for Senate)
CA-25: Raul Ruiz (running for Senate)
CA-30: Adam Schiff (running for Senate)
CA-47: Katie Porter (running for Senate) - Rouda's running here, right?
HI-01: Ed Case (running for Senate)
HI-02: Kai Kahele (running for Senate)
MD-03: John Sarbanes (running for Senate)
ME-01: Chellie Pingree (running for Senate) - I assume her daughter’s running here, right?
MN-03: Dean Phillips (running for Senate)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (running for Senate)
WA-01: Suzan DelBene (running for Senate)

If there's anyone else I missed please let me know. I'd really like a look at the races to replace them in the house

Also, re: Michele Tafoya. I don't see her running in 2024 if Qualls' campaign doesn't at the very least make it through the primary, and even then he should have at least a close race with Walz if he doesn't win. Will you be retconning that for the TL?

A few more things I'd like to see in the timeline:
-Guy Reschenthaler to run for PA-Sen
-A Clark County-based Republican candidate for NV-Sen (Laxalt is from Washoe)

[Tekken_Guy]

So, if I'm not mistaken, the following house members are not running for re-election:

Republicans:
AZ-01: David Schweikert (running for Senate)
AZ-05: Andy Biggs (running for Senate)
AZ-09: Paul Gosar (running for Senate)
CA-20: Kevin McCarthy (running for Senate) - Is Mike Garcia switching to this seat? If not I'd like to see Vince Fong run.
CA-41: Ken Calvert (retiring) - Melissa Melendez is running, I believe.
MI-10: John James (running for Senate)
MO-02: Ann Wagner (running for Senate)
MT-02: Matt Rosendale (running for Senate)
OH-04: Jim Jordan (running for Senate)
TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (running for Senate)
TX-05: Lance Gooden (running for Senate)
TX-21: Chip Roy (running for Senate)
TX-25: Roger Williams (running for Senate)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (running for Senate)
WI-05: Scott Fitzgerald (running for Senate)
WI-08: Mike Gallagher (running for Senate)
WV-02: Alex Mooney (running for Senate) - Does McKinley go for it again?

Democrats:
CA-14: Eric Swalwell (running for Senate)
CA-25: Raul Ruiz (running for Senate)
CA-30: Adam Schiff (running for Senate)
CA-47: Katie Porter (running for Senate) - Rouda's running here, right?
HI-01: Ed Case (running for Senate)
HI-02: Kai Kahele (running for Senate)
MD-03: John Sarbanes (running for Senate)
ME-01: Chellie Pingree (running for Senate) - I assume her daughter’s running here, right?
MN-03: Dean Phillips (running for Senate)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (running for Senate)
WA-01: Suzan DelBene (running for Senate)

If there's anyone else I missed please let me know. I'd really like a look at the races to replace them in the house

Also, re: Michele Tafoya. I don't see her running in 2024 if Qualls' campaign doesn't at the very least make it through the primary, and even then he should have at least a close race with Walz if he doesn't win. Will you be retconning that for the TL?

A few more things I'd like to see in the timeline:
-Guy Reschenthaler to run for PA-Sen
-A Clark County-based Republican candidate for NV-Sen (Laxalt is from Washoe)

Continuing with Tekken, there are also redistricting changes (most if not all of them announced already in this TL) in Alabama, Illinois, Maryland, New York, North Carolina and Texas (Ohio will not be until 2026). Illinois, New York and Maryland were singled out for their districts not being compact and stretched out into heavily Republican rural and suburban areas under the guise of "increased minority representation", while Texas's map was struck down due to diluted Hispanic voting strength in the Corpus Christi and Dallas-Fort Worth areas where new districts were recommended (a fourth "fajita strip" district plus a second Latino-focused minority opportunity district (MOD) in Dallas alongside the traditionally Black 30th District). Alabama's map, which originally avoided a redraw as the Supreme Court's reasoning was not to disrupt the 2022 filing cycle that was ongoing, finally gets a redraw with the adding of a second Black opportunity district, while North Carolina's redraw is the result of the Republican takeover of the North Carolina Supreme Court (which implemented the previous 2022 map under a slight Democratic majority) that tweaks the maps to improve Republican chances in some of the seats, improve representation for some areas (e.g. moving competitive Alamance County from the heavily Democratic Durham-based 4th to the competitive Greensboro-based 6th) and finally consolidate the 12th entirely into Mecklenburg County.

Alabama's new map (click here)

• 1st: Conservative parts of Mobile and its suburbs including Baldwin County, plus the Wiregrass region including Dothan. Majority White R+54 (based on Nate Silver's scoring) district. Republicans Jerry Carl and Barry Moore are the incumbents.
• 2nd: New minority opportunity district (MOD) with Montgomery and Tuskegee to the east and (most of) Mobile to the west. District leans Democratic (D+3) with a 49-44 Black-White coalition, as Trump only lost here by single digits. A Democrat would be favored here, but it's competitive enough to where a Republican is capable of winning not unlike GA-02 and NC-01.
• 3rd: Remains anchored in Anniston, Auburn, Talladega and the northern suburbs of Montgomery. Trump won two-thirds of the vote here in this R+43 district. Mike Rogers is retiring from the seat, but it's unlikely that Moore will move here given he's from the Wiregrass.
• 4th: Northwest corner of the state including Florence, Decatur, Cullman and Northport (north of Tuscaloosa). Conservative R+61 seat held by the venerable Republican Robert Aderholt.
• 5th: Northeast corner of the state including Huntsville, Gadsden and Fort Payne. R+37 district held by Republican freshman Dale Strong.
• 6th: Based in and around the suburbs and exurbs of Birmingham. R+54 seat that was the most Republican in the nation during the George W. Bush years, now second most conservative in the Trump era. Conservative Republican Gary Palmer is the incumbent.
• 7th: The legacy Black district in the state. Covers Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Selma. D+31 majority Black MOD represented by Terri Sewell.

Illinois' new map (click here)

• 1st: Combines the core of the old 1st and 7th districts, westward from the DuPage County line through Chicago's West Side and the Loop south to Hyde Park. D+80 Black MOD with a sizable Latino populace. Freshmen incumbents Kina Collins (old 7th, backed by the Squad) and Jonathan Jackson (old 1st, middle son of Jesse Jackson) will face each other in the Dem primary.
• 2nd: Much of the rest of Chicago's South Side (Bridgeport, Englewood, what is called the "East Side") with south Cook County (Calumet City, Homewood, Matteson) and a sliver of Will County centered on Crete. Over 70 percent Black, heavily Democratic (D+75) district held by Robin Kelly.
• 3rd: The new Hispanic district in Chicago is now more discreetly targeted to its targeted demographic, stretching from such Northwest Side neighborhoods as Belmont Cragin through O'Hare International Airport, out to Elmwood Park, Elk Grove Village, Streamwood and Elgin. D+41 Hispanic MOD held by freshman Democrat Delia Ramirez.
• 4th: Chicago's legacy Hispanic district, repped by Democrat Chuy Garcia, remains based on the Southwest Side (including Midway Airport) and such suburbs as Cicero and Lyons, plus a largely Black section including Washington Heights so as not to pack the South Side's Black vote entirely in the 2nd. 60 percent Hispanic D+65 MOD.
• 5th: Covers Chicago's immediate northwest suburbs along the Golden Corridor including Schaumburg, Niles, Arlington Heights and Rosemont, as well as mostly White areas of the Northwest Side (Dunning, Mayfair). Both Democrats Mike Quigley (old 5th) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (old 8th) have been drawn into the new D+19 5th.
• 6th: The new, open 6th is restored to its traditional location exclusively within suburban DuPage County (Wheaton, Naperville, Bloomingdale and Oak Brook among others). Even though the new district is D+14 and voted for Joe Biden by 18 percent in 2020, Mitt Romney was even with favorite son Barack Obama in 2012 here; with neither Obama nor Trump on the ballot, this district is viewed as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP in 2024.
• 7th: The old 6th's incumbent, freshman Republican Keith Pekau, is the incumbent in the new 7th in Chicago's southwest suburbs (Orland Park and Western Springs in Cook County and Downers Grove and Darien in southeast DuPage County). Like the new 6th, this D+10 seat was narrowly split between Obama and Romney in 2012.
• 8th: Everything old is new again as the late Phil Crane's old northwest exurban Chicago seat is restored, stretching from McHenry County to Palatine, Wauconda, Elburn and St. Charles. This is perhaps the most appropriate district for freshman Republican Catalina Lauf, a Trump-friendly millennial conservative whose new R+3 district barely went for Trump in 2016 but went for Biden in 2020.
• 9th: This remains Chicago's liberal lakeshore district, stretching from the Magnificent Mile, Navy Pier and Wrigley Field out to Evanston and Skokie. This D+66 seat is open as longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky is retiring.
• 10th: The most Democratic suburban Chicago district outside of the 2nd, this district connects most of Lake County (Waukegan, Grayslake) to a northeast portion of Cook County including Wilmette and Northbrook. Brad Schneider is the incumbent in this D+28 district.
• 11th: Evenly-divided swing seat covering the lion's share of Will as well as Kankakee County. While some speculate that this open seat was designed as a "comeback opportunity" for Never Trumper Adam Kinzinger, Kinzinger has ruled out any interest in running for office. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, who lost reelection in the old 14th in 2022, is seeking a comeback bid.
• 12th: One of two Southern Illinois districts, this R+17 seat covers the Metro East suburbs of St. Louis plus the college town of Carbondale. Republican Mike Bost is the incumbent.
• 13th: Having won in a linear, gerrymandered seat in 2022, Democratic incumbent Nikki Budzinski now has to run in a more compact, GOP-friendly R+16 district that is being heavily targeted by Republicans.
• 14th: GOP-tilted swing district connecting Aurora and Chicago's southwest exurbs in Kendall and Grundy counties out to Ottawa, Pontiac and Bloomington. Freshman Republican Scott Gryder is the incumbent in this district that voted for Romney in 2012 but voted against Trump twice.
• 15th:The other Southern Illinois district, covering such communities as Centralia, Mattoon, Danville, Harrisburg and Carlinville. Republican Mary Miller is the incumbent in this R+50 district.
• 16th: Stretching across portions of northern and central Illinois from Rockford, Freeport and DeKalb out to Dixon and suburbs of Peoria, this R+13 district favors the GOP. Darin LaHood is the incumbent.
• 17th: After winning a much more competitive version of this district in 2022, first-term Republican Esther Joy King is a safer incumbent in this R+17 district connecting Peoria, Quincy and Moline.

Maryland's new map (click here)

• 1st: R+13 district in the Eastern Shore counties (including Salisbury), Annapolis and such suburbs as Severna Park and Parole. Republican Andy Harris is the incumbent.
• 2nd: Already made more competitive in the last Democratic gerrymander from 2022, with longtime Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger having already announced his retirement, this seat has been turned into a GOP-leaning swing seat that is R+6 on paper, covering Harford and eastern Baltimore counties (Towson, Dundalk, Perry Hall, Hunt Valley) as well as a small section of Baltimore itself centered on the Greektown neighborhood. Prominent Black Republican activist Kim Klacik, whose 2020 bid in the neighboring 7th District was spotlighted at the 2020 Republican National Convention but has drawn more attention lately for her dispute with fellow Black conservative Candace Owens, is running in the new 2nd.
• 3rd: With John Sarbanes running for the U.S. Senate, Republicans sense an opportunity in this D+12 west suburban Baltimore district dominated by Carroll and Howard counties, and stretching southward to Glen Burnie and Olney (in the Washington, D.C. area). Still, while the district may have been evenly divided between Obama and Romney in 2012, Democrats are still favored to hold this seat.
• 4th: D+82 Black MOD located entirely within Prince George's County (including Landover, College Park, Laurel and Hillcrest Heights). Freshman Democrat Glenn Ivey is the incumbent.
• 5th: With longtime House leader Steny Hoyer retiring, this D+26 district is now a Black minority impact district (MID) covering Southern Maryland as well as communities in outer Prince George's and Anne Arundel counties including Bowie, Crofton and National Harbor.
• 6th: This district has been made more competitive in redistricting, now stretching from western Maryland to Frederick County, as well as more conservative parts of Montgomery County including Potomac and Germantown. Democrat and Total Wine co-founder David Trone is the incumbent in this D+3 district.
• 7th: Kweisi Mfume is the incumbent in this 62 percent Black, D+75 MOD which covers most of Baltimore and western Baltimore County including Owings Mills and Woodlawn.
• 8th: Diverse D+63 district in Montgomery County, centered in Bethesda and stretching northward to Gaithersburg and Burtonsville. The incumbent is Jamie Raskin.

A few questions

-Is Jessica Taylor running again in that AL-03? She's from Autauga County, I believe.
-Does Katie Britt have any plans at running for congress again?
-Are Sean Casten or Rodney Davis planning comebacks?
-Will there be other GOP candidates in MD-02 or does Klacik clear the field?

[Tekken_Guy]

So, if I'm not mistaken, the following house members are not running for re-election:

Republicans:
AZ-01: David Schweikert (running for Senate)
AZ-05: Andy Biggs (running for Senate)
AZ-09: Paul Gosar (running for Senate)
CA-20: Kevin McCarthy (running for Senate) - Is Mike Garcia switching to this seat? If not I'd like to see Vince Fong run.
CA-41: Ken Calvert (retiring) - Melissa Melendez is running, I believe.
MI-10: John James (running for Senate)
MO-02: Ann Wagner (running for Senate)
MT-02: Matt Rosendale (running for Senate)
OH-04: Jim Jordan (running for Senate)
TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (running for Senate)
TX-05: Lance Gooden (running for Senate)
TX-21: Chip Roy (running for Senate)
TX-25: Roger Williams (running for Senate)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (running for Senate)
WI-05: Scott Fitzgerald (running for Senate)
WI-08: Mike Gallagher (running for Senate)
WV-02: Alex Mooney (running for Senate) - Does McKinley go for it again?

Democrats:
CA-14: Eric Swalwell (running for Senate)
CA-25: Raul Ruiz (running for Senate)
CA-30: Adam Schiff (running for Senate)
CA-47: Katie Porter (running for Senate) - Rouda's running here, right?
HI-01: Ed Case (running for Senate)
HI-02: Kai Kahele (running for Senate)
MD-03: John Sarbanes (running for Senate)
ME-01: Chellie Pingree (running for Senate) - I assume her daughter’s running here, right?
MN-03: Dean Phillips (running for Senate)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (running for Senate)
WA-01: Suzan DelBene (running for Senate)

If there's anyone else I missed please let me know. I'd really like a look at the races to replace them in the house

Also, re: Michele Tafoya. I don't see her running in 2024 if Qualls' campaign doesn't at the very least make it through the primary, and even then he should have at least a close race with Walz if he doesn't win. Will you be retconning that for the TL?

A few more things I'd like to see in the timeline:
-Guy Reschenthaler to run for PA-Sen
-A Clark County-based Republican candidate for NV-Sen (Laxalt is from Washoe)

NOTE: Some of the names below have been changed from earlier posts to reflect new campaign developments as local as the congressional level. Once again, I am going by Nate Silver's partisan leans (e.g. D+6 translates into D+3 if Cook PVI were to be used instead).

New York's new map (click here)

• 1st: Eastern and central Suffolk County (Brookhaven to the Hamptons). R+12 district that had been won narrowly by freshman Republican Anthony Figliola in 2022 in a gerrymandered D+6 district, where he benefited from the presence of incumbent Lee Zeldin on the ballot for Governor. Democrats are still targeting this seat, but this time they will be a clear underdog.
• 2nd: R+7 minority impact district (MID) that is 25 percent Hispanic and 10 percent Black, including southwest Suffolk (Islip, Lindenhurst) and southeast Nassau (Merrick, Massapequa). Andrew Garbarino is the incumbent.
• NY-03: R+1 Trump-Biden district on Long Island's North Shore from Huntington and Smithtown in northwest Suffolk to Oyster Bay, Garden City and Great Neck in northern Nassau. This is an open seat because the Democratic incumbent, Alessandra Biaggi, has been moved out of the district. George Santos, who has lost two consecutive races as the GOP nominee here, is looking to make the third time the charm. Bill Staniford, who narrowly lost in NY-04 in 2022, has moved from Lawrence to Garden City to challenge Santos in the GOP primary.
• NY-04: Now a majority-minority D+23 district with Hispanic and Black voters over one-quarter of the population each. Includes southwest Nassau (Hempstead, Rockville Centre, the Five Towns) and a southeast portion of Queens including the Rockaways and JFK Airport. Freshman Kevan Abrahams, who won both a competitive Democratic primary and a competitive general election in 2022, is heavily favored for a second term in this new district.
• NY-05: D+69 Black-Asian coalition minority opportunity district (MOD) covering a south central portion of Queens (Jamaica, Hollis, St. Albans, Richmond Hill), plus a western part of Nassau in the vicinity of Belmont Park. Gregory Meeks is the incumbent.
• NY-06: D+22 Asian MOD in northeast Queens (Flushing, Bayside, Elmhurst, Glendale). Grace Meng is the incumbent.
• NY-07: Anglo-Latino coalition MID predominantly in Brooklyn - Park Slope, Red Hook, Borough Park, Bushwick, with a small sliver in Queens centered on Ridgewood. With the exception of a few Orthodox Jewish pockets, this is a thoroughly Democratic D+63 district. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velázquez is retiring, paving the way for Colombian-Jewish State Senator Julia Salazar, a self-described Democratic Socialist (think Bernie Sanders), to run in this district.
• NY-08: One of two diverse Black MODs in Brooklyn, this one covering Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie and Sheepshead Bay with a D+56 lean (though more Republican and purple in the Orthodox Jewish-heavy portion west of Flatbush Avenue). The incumbent is House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
• NY-09: Asides from purple and conservative-tinged Midwood and New Utrecht (home to sizable Asian and Orthodox Jewish constituencies), Brooklyn's other diverse Black MOD in the heart of borough (also including Crown Heights and Flatbush) is a heavily Democratic D+63 district. Yvette Clarke is the incumbent.
• NY-10: There are two big changes to this Staten Island and southwest Queens district: it has swapped numbers with the old NY-10 (was NY-11), and it has been modified from a D+7 district in the midterms to an R+12 one in 2024 (with the Queens portion now stretching from Fort Hamilton to Coney Island). Second-term Republican Nicole Malliotakis, who survived a brutal reelection against former U.S. Rep. (and predecessor) Max Rose in 2022, is favored in this new iteration.
• NY-11: This west side Manhattan district, stretching from Columbia University and the Upper West Side to Madison Square Garden and Wall Street (as well as the west side of Times Square and the actual crystal Times Square ball), also encompasses the Brooklyn Bridge and includes the Navy Yard and Williamsburg on the Brooklyn side and is D+76 on paper. Venerable incumbent Jerry Nadler is retiring with a crowded Democratic field emerging, highlighted by attorney and former Obama-era State Dept. official Jack Schlossberg, the only grandson of John F. Kennedy.
• NY-12: The famed East Side Manhattan "silk stocking district", containing the Upper East Side, Central Park, the east side of Times Square and the Lower East Side, with the other portion encompassing a western portion of Queens including Long Island City and Maspeth - both separated by Roosevelt Island. Longtime incumbent Carolyn Maloney, who survived fierce primary challenges in her last three Democratic primaries, is retiring; while Republicans are promising to run a well-funded challenger in this very wealthy district (which a Rockefeller Republican represented during the Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush years but not since then), the winner of the crowded Democratic field in this D+65 district is heavily favored next November.
• NY-13: Historically Black district in northern Manhattan, covering Harlem, Washington Heights and Inwood, and extending northward to Woodlawn and Riverdale in the Bronx as well as southward to Astoria in Queens. Now a D+76 Afro-Latino coalition MOD with a large Dominican presence. Adriano Espaillat is the incumbent.
• NY-14: Split between the Bronx and Queens, with the former containing Parkchester, Eastchester and City Island and the latter containing Jackson Heights, Steinway, LaGuardia Airport, Citi Field and the Rikers Island jail. The incumbent in this D+58 Latino MOD with a one-quarter Black population? Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
• NY-15: Yankee Stadium is the centerpiece of this south Bronx district, surrounded by such neighborhoods as Morris Heights, Mott Haven, Morrisania and Castle Hill. Ritchie Torres is the incumbent of this majority Latino, 40 percent Black and D+79 MOD.
• NY-16: Dominated by Westchester County including White Plains, Yonkers, New Rochelle and Croton-on-Hudson, with a small section of the Bronx centered on the Wakefield and Eastchester neighborhoods. Incumbent Jamaal Bowman has decided to run for the U.S. Senate, challenging Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand from the left, but the district will have an incumbent as freshman Democrat Alessandra Biaggi (who was drawn out of the old, gerrymandered 3rd) will be running for a second term in this D+43 MOD where Latino and Black voters are the majority.
• NY-17: One of two outer suburban lower Hudson Valley districts, this is the one west of the Hudson (and by that extension, west of the Mario Cuomo Bridge Tappan Zee) including all or most of Rockland, Orange and Sullivan counties. Two incumbents, sophomore Democrat Mondaire Jones and freshman Republican Colin Schmitt, have been drawn into this Republican-tilting R+4 district that narrowly voted twice for Trump and where Orthodox Jewish voters in the community of Kiryas Joel can make or break a candidate's chances.
• NY-18: The other LoHud district - this one mostly east of the Hudson - covers more conservative areas of Westchester (all points north from Harrison, Rye, Valhalla, Chappaqua and Peekskill), as well as exurban Putnam County, southern and central Dutchess County (including Poughkeepsie), southern Ulster County (Wawarsing, Plattekill) and the northeast corner of Newburgh in Orange County. The district is D+5 on paper (D+17 in Westchester, R+3 in the remainder), but is represented by freshman Republican Marc Molinaro.
• NY-19: Covers the remainder of the Hudson Valley, plus most of the eastern and northern suburbs of the Capital District and the Plattsburgh, Glens Falls and Lake Placid areas. R+2 Obama/Trump/Biden district that is D+1 when based on 2012 and 2016. The incumbent is Elise Stefanik.
• NY-20: Albany, Schenectady, Troy and western parts of the Capital District. D+9 district where Paul Tonko is retiring, and where former U.S. Rep. Antonio Delgado (who actually grew up in Schenectady) has decided to embark on a comeback bid.
• NY-21: Much of the North Country including Watertown and Massena, as well as the Utica and Oneonta areas. At R+23, it is the most conservative district in all of New York. Claudia Tenney is the incumbent.
• NY-22: Centered on Syracuse and its surrounding suburbs, as well as the surrounding communities of Cortland, Canastota and Seneca Falls, along with eastern suburbs of Rochester. D+2 district represented by freshman Democrat Josh Riley.
• NY-23: This previously eliminated district, primarily centered in the Twin Tiers including Binghamton and Elmira, also encompasses the college town of Ithaca, extending westward to the southern suburbs of Rochester and eastward to Delaware County. R+9 district with a large manufacturing presence.
• NY-24:Northern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo (Amherst, North Tonawanda, Batavia, Warsaw) and Niagara Falls, plus a northern portion of Buffalo itself. Chris Jacobs is the incumbent in this Trump-Biden R+8 district.
• NY-25: D+15 district covering all of Rochester and Monroe County, as well as northern Livingston County. Joe Morelle is the incumbent.
• NY-26: Another Trump-Biden district that is R+4, covering most of Buffalo, its Southtowns suburbs (Orchard Park, Cheektowaga) and the Niagara Frontier from Jamestown to Wellsville. Longtime Democrat Brian Higgins is the incumbent.

North Carolina's new map (click here)

• NC-01: Unchanged D+6 Black MID from 2022 (Greenville and Rocky Mount areas). Erica Smith is the incumbent.
• NC-02: One-quarter Black MID that covers nearly all of Raleigh and is now D+26 on paper. Deborah Ross is the incumbent.
• NC-03: Unchanged R+29 district from 2022 in eastern North Carolina (New Bern, Kitty Hawk, Camp Lejeune). Greg Murphy is the incumbent.
• NC-04: Remains centered in Durham and Chapel Hill, but swaps out competitive Alamance County (which is in a separate TV market) for the relatively blue Raleigh suburb of Cary. Clay Aiken is the incumbent in this D+41 majority-minority Black MID.
• NC-05: R+20 district now covering all of Winston-Salem and most of its suburbs, stretching westward through Wilkesboro to Boone. Virginia Foxx is the retiring incumbent.
• NC-06: D+3 Black MID centered in Greensboro and its surrounding suburbs. Kathy Manning is the incumbent in what is now a blue-tinted battleground.
• NC-07: Unchanged R+16 Wilmington-based district that stretches out to parts of Fayetteville. The incumbent is David Rouzer.
• NC-08: The addition of blue-collar Rockingham and the Democratic stronghold of High Point makes this Fayetteville-based R+11 Black MID somewhat of a target for the DCCC, as incumbent Republican Richard Hudson has decided to move westward to the newly restored 9th to accommodate former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker who made an unsuccessful run for the GOP Senate nod in 2022.
• NC-09: Cabarrus County (northeast Charlotte suburbs) is now fully in this R+36 district that also includes Salisbury, Lexington and over half of Union County including Monroe. Dan Bishop had moved here in 2022 and while the district remains east of Charlotte in 2024, this time with the district reverting back to the 9th, Bishop has been moved into another district (see below). Fellow incumbent Richard Hudson is now the new incumbent.
• NC-10: The most heavily and historically Republican district in the state will now cover all of the Unifour region (including Hickory and Lenoir) along with exurban Charlotte's Iredell and Lincoln counties and the Lake Norman suburbs (Huntersville, Cornelius) in northern Mecklenburg County. The incumbent of this R+39 district is Patrick McHenry.
• NC-11: Unchanged R+16 western North Carolina district anchored in Asheville. Madison Cawthorn remains the incumbent, but is facing several primary challengers after a continued series of controversies that lingered into the new Congress.
• NC-12: This district is now entirely back within Mecklenburg County, taking in most of Charlotte. With the exception of historically Republican south Charlotte which swung hard against Trump in 2016 and 2020, this Black-White coalition district is D+46 on paper. 77-year old Alma Adams is retiring, with 41-year-old freshman Democrat Jeff Jackson all but assured reelection here.
• NC-13: Previously a swing battleground that included southern parts of Raleigh, this R+14 district has expanded further into the southern suburbs of North Carolina's capital city, with Sanford and Pittsboro now joining the likes of Fuquay-Varina and Smithfield. Freshman Republican Bo Hines, a former college football player for NC State and Yale, is the incumbent.
• NC-14: Designed as a favorably Democratic district in south Charlotte and the city's western suburbs in Gaston County, the new 14th now stretches further west to Shelby and Forest City, and now includes a heavily suburbanized western part of Union County (Wesley Chapel, Weddington) in addition to the Ballantyne, Piper Glen and Providence areas of Charlotte and the south Mecklenburg suburbs of Pineville, Matthews and Mint Hill. The district is now R+19 on paper, with the house of Dan Bishop now situated in the modified 14th.

I’ll be surprised if Alessandra Biaggi is winning the primary in NY-03. She is from Westchester County and has a very narrow path to winning a nomination in a Long Island-based seat. I assume the Long Island vote was split and she snuck through.

Also, was Bowman already running for senate before he got paired with Biaggi in redistricting, or was he planning on running for re-election.

Also, how did Claudia Tenney do in the primary in 2022? She’s not very popular even with Republicans. Did Trump’s endorsement help her? And how will she be doing in 2024.

Finally is Anthony Brindisi going to be making a comeback in this timeline?[/list]

[Tekken_Guy]

You really have Fung winning in 2022?