Ohio 2020 Redistricting Map

[Nyvin]

So with Issue 1 passed in Ohio I thought it’d be interesting to take 2017 estimates and build out a map to get an idea of what can happen in Ohio in 2020.  

Here’s the maps:

Statewide:


Northeast:


Columbus:


The Cleveland district is only 45.4% Black, but in order to get over 50% (if that’s even possible anymore…?) you have to go into Akron, which causes the district to leave Cuyahoga county, which is an additional split.   Might need clarification on that part.    

Also I don’t read in the rules specifically that says that if a county is large enough for its own district it must have its own district.    I was assuming that was part of the package, but it actually only list the municipalities being split in the large counties.

The good news is that there is a compact guideline in Issue 1 that prevent tentacled districts from being made (Thank goodness…) and for maps passed with a simple majority there’s even further guidelines on splitting counties.    With that in mind I’m almost certain a Hamilton County dem seat is inevitable.  

Delaware county getting paired with Franklin county made the most sense to me since they share so many municipalities on the border.   Also Union+Delaware+Franklin is almost exactly 2 districts (about 5k short, but the area is by far the fastest growing in the state).  

Lorain+Cuyahoga is almost exactly 2 districts as well (but again, not sure about the AA majority seat).

The map I made only has 8 splits but that’s because I didn’t bother with the micro splits to even out population,  I just made sure each district is within 15k of 777240 people (2017 district size),  most are actually way better than that.   I’m pretty sure it won’t exceed the 23 maximum splits set by Issue 1.    No counties need to be split more than once on this map (that’s not even remotely difficult).  


2012-2016 PVI:

OH-1 (Blue, Cincinnati): D+5.14

OH-2 (Green, Cincinnati Suburbs, Southern Rural): R+19.32

OH-3 (Purple, Columbus): D+10.28

OH-4 (Red, Toledo): D+4.49

OH-5 (Yellow, Northwest Rural): R+20.47

OH-6 (Brown, Mansfield, I-77 area): R+16.66

OH-7 (Grey, Youngstown/Canton): R+3.80

OH-8 (Purple-ish, Butler County, Springfield): R+18.14

OH-9 (Teal, Lorain County, western Cleveland): D+1.53

OH-10 (Pink, Dayton): R+4.88

OH-11 (light Green, eastern Cleveland): D+28.67 45.4% AA

OH-12 (Blue-Grey, Delaware and Union counties, northern Columbus): D+3.55

OH-13 (Tan, Akron): R+0.98

OH-14 (light Brown, northeast corner): R+3.68

OH-15 (Orange, Columbus suburb/exurb, southern rural): R+12.13

[Nyvin]

Here's the rules in Issue 1:

https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/overview-ohio-redistricting-reform-proposal

1.   Plans must comply with relevant provisions of the Ohio Constitution, U.S. Constitution, and federal law.

2.   Districts shall be compact. (This requirement does not apply to plans passed by the legislature with less than 60-percent or less than one-third support from each party. In that case, the legislature shall attempt to draw compact districts.)

3.   Districts must be contiguous.

4.   For a county with a population greater than one congressional district:

a.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population greater than one congressional district, then map drawers shall attempt to include a significant portion of the municipality/township in a single district. The district drawer may include in that district other municipalities/townships located in the county, whose residents have similar interests as residents in the first municipality/township.


b.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population over 100,000 but less than one congressional district, then that municipality/township cannot be split.

c.   If the county contains more than one such municipality/township, then only the largest one cannot be split.

5.   65 counties must be kept whole, 18 counties may be split once, and 5 counties may be split twice.

6.   A district cannot include two parts of a county that are not contiguous within that county.

7.   The same two districts cannot split the same two counties between them, except for counties with over 400,000 people.

8.   Map drawers must attempt to include at least one whole county in each district. This does not apply to a district contained entirely within one county or that, to comply with federal law, cannot include a whole county.


Rules Applying to Plans Passed by Simple Majority-
If the redistricting plan is passed by simple majority under Step Three, the plan must adhere to these additional requirements:

1.   The plan cannot not unduly (dis)favor a political party or its incumbents.

2.   The plan may not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole (in this order) counties, townships, and municipalities.

3.   The legislature must attempt to draw compact districts.

[lfromnj]

and why would the GOP do anything better than 11-4 for the dems when its perfectly possible?

[Nyvin]

and why would the GOP do anything better than 11-4 for the dems when its perfectly possible?

To avoid doing a four year map with a plethora of lawsuits.

[lfromnj]

and why would the GOP do anything better than 11-4 for the dems when its perfectly possible?

To avoid doing a four year map with a plethora of lawsuits.

when have lawsuits stopped a party?
Also why would a 4 year map be bad
If map is succesful 11-4 repeat map
If map fails aka dems pick up a seat just shore it up again.
Its an incredible deal that I wouldn't have voted in as it only makes gerrymandering easier.

[Tintrlvr]

and why would the GOP do anything better than 11-4 for the dems when its perfectly possible?

To avoid doing a four year map with a plethora of lawsuits.

when have lawsuits stopped a party?
Also why would a 4 year map be bad
If map is succesful 11-4 repeat map
If map fails aka dems pick up a seat just shore it up again.
Its an incredible deal that I wouldn't have voted in as it only makes gerrymandering easier.

A 4-year map runs the risk that the Democrats take over something (most likely governor) and block the next gerrymander. We'll see. I mostly agree that a four-year map is the most likely result but hard to be sure. The new rules create a lot of room for litigation.

[lfromnj]

and why would the GOP do anything better than 11-4 for the dems when its perfectly possible?

To avoid doing a four year map with a plethora of lawsuits.

when have lawsuits stopped a party?
Also why would a 4 year map be bad
If map is succesful 11-4 repeat map
If map fails aka dems pick up a seat just shore it up again.
Its an incredible deal that I wouldn't have voted in as it only makes gerrymandering easier.

A 4-year map runs the risk that the Democrats take over something (most likely governor) and block the next gerrymander.

I can see the dems winning the governor but they could just override as I think veto override is 3/5 and they have 2/3 in the house and 3/4 in the senate. With the current trends of Ohio the house will only continue to decrease.