Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

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Union over half in, still no precincts from mecklengberg

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Surely only 1% of Mecklenburg being in is good for McCready?

Yes it very much is

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Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

Who do you think net gains from the non-meck, non-union vote?

Its mostly a wash, discounting Robinson. And Robinson is very segregrated so who knows whats out, but its probably more dem since some gop precincts dropped  last time.

Robeson not looking great for McCready.

We do not know which precincts are reporting in Robeson and as others mentioned it is highly segregated, same goes for the last precincts in Richmond

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Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

To further your point, after a vote dump now there are only 1 left from Richmond, 0 left from Anson, 19 from Robeson, 5 left from Bladen...still 43 left from Mecklenburg.

Union is done?

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More Robison just came in, and it didn’t get any better for McCready. Went from McCready +10 to McCready +6...

I think he might actually lose it...

Well thats not good

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Looking at the vote changes, did the african american vote collapse or was just Harris a uniquely bad candidate?

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Looking at the vote changes, did the african american vote collapse or was just Harris a uniquely bad candidate?

'

Not really. If we end up having to write McReady's obituary, it will be because of turnout differentials and Robinson Lumbees:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171601325592862721

Thanks for the response, have not really followed this race, tbh i did not realize the native population was that significant

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It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......