Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[jimrtex]

Oh, finally, a real BoE, hallelujah

Josh Malcolm decided not to be on the board. He might have had to recuse himself, because of his personal communication during the election, plus his daughter being part of the McCready GOTV effort.

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

[Brittain33]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

Jim would never omit relevant information that might undermine the point he was trying to make. 😉

[jimrtex]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

[Badger]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

Jim would never omit relevant information that might undermine the point he was trying to make. 😉

I took them off ignore during the low in the investigation so I can read some of his posts in the redistricting thread. Back on to ignore he goes now.

[jimrtex]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

Oh. Isn't swing conventionally measured based on the same election, such as Congressional 2016 to Congressional 2018? Clinton was the worst Democrat in Robeson County. When he used her Arkansas accent it would have grated on any Carolinian's nerves. "It sounds like someone from Boone. No its worse than that, Tennessee maybe?. No even they aren't that bad. Sounds like finger nails on a chalkboard".

Turnout in 2018 relative to 2016 was highest in Mecklenburg and Bladen counties. In Mecklenburg it might have been a result of the 'Charlotte against Trump' rally for which the Russians have been indicted by Robert Mueller. In Bladen by local elections, and the GOTV effort.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hearing scheduled for Feb. 18.

[Ebsy]

who care

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

Oh. Isn't swing conventionally measured based on the same election, such as Congressional 2016 to Congressional 2018? Clinton was the worst Democrat in Robeson County. When he used her Arkansas accent it would have grated on any Carolinian's nerves. "It sounds like someone from Boone. No its worse than that, Tennessee maybe?. No even they aren't that bad. Sounds like finger nails on a chalkboard".

Turnout in 2018 relative to 2016 was highest in Mecklenburg and Bladen counties. In Mecklenburg it might have been a result of the 'Charlotte against Trump' rally for which the Russians have been indicted by Robert Mueller. In Bladen by local elections, and the GOTV effort.

ALright, checked the 2016 congress numbers, and Pittenger lost RObeson by 5, which is still a ten point swing. He only won Bladen by 58-41 though, almost identical to Harris, and he won by 17 points. Hmm...

[jimrtex]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

Oh. Isn't swing conventionally measured based on the same election, such as Congressional 2016 to Congressional 2018? Clinton was the worst Democrat in Robeson County. When he used her Arkansas accent it would have grated on any Carolinian's nerves. "It sounds like someone from Boone. No its worse than that, Tennessee maybe?. No even they aren't that bad. Sounds like finger nails on a chalkboard".

Turnout in 2018 relative to 2016 was highest in Mecklenburg and Bladen counties. In Mecklenburg it might have been a result of the 'Charlotte against Trump' rally for which the Russians have been indicted by Robert Mueller. In Bladen by local elections, and the GOTV effort.

ALright, checked the 2016 congress numbers, and Pittenger lost RObeson by 5, which is still a ten point swing. He only won Bladen by 58-41 though, almost identical to Harris, and he won by 17 points. Hmm...

I would call that a 5% swing.

It is interesting that Harris carried the Robeson precincts along the Bladen county line

 (be careful when comparing 2016 to 2018 results in this matter). The 2018 results have attributed the votes cast in early voting and absentee voting to the home precinct of the voter. This was not done for 2016, and in 2016 and 2018, the Democratic candidate did quite a bit better in early voting. This has not been done for either election in Bladen County.

The counsel for Harris has requested that the NCSBOE staff report be released prior to the February 18 hearing. This is quite reasonable considering the quasi-legal nature of the hearing.

They have also given a list of potential witnesses they would like to be subpoenaed. McCready is one of them. He may try to quash the subpoena claiming that he has no personal knowledge of Elizabethtown or Bladen County, or how his campaign was run.

[The Mikado]

NC-09 and NC-03 having their elections on the same day would make all sorts of sense, right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

NC-09 and NC-03 having their elections on the same day would make all sorts of sense, right?

Yes, but this is North Carolina we're talking about, so I wouldn't count on it.

[Brittain33]

Saw this on Twitter and laughed because who they lined up with Bladen County

[Antonio the Sixth]

Saw this on Twitter and laughed because who they lined up with Bladen County

Should be Florida.

[Tender Branson]

Hearing scheduled for Feb. 18.

Hopefully this wheel-stuck-in-sh*t is starting to move tomorrow ...

[lfromnj]

https://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/video/18200033/

Live Hearing link

[GeorgiaModerate]

Twitter feed from a local reporter following the hearing: https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV

[scutosaurus]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1097525181977903106

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1097550957876072450

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1097541734534385665
This hearing is wild

[jimrtex]

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This is misleading. She testified that one ballot was unsealed and she peeked at the ballot.

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McCrae Dowless is her stepfather. I believe that she was the offspring of a relationship between her mother and another man, prior to her mother marrying Dowless. Britt came to live with Dowless, along with her two young children after she left an abusive relationship.

Her mother was married to McCrae Dowless in the 1990s, but came to live in his house this past year after she had surgery.

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Not accurate. She filled in downballot races on less than 10 ballots. She does not know the source of the ballots. But also everyone voted the top of the ballot races. The congressional race was top of the ballot in 2018.

She said that she saw Mark Harris at a relief event after Hurricane Flo. When cross-examined about who was there, she was frustrated at how stupid the Seattle attorney was, as she explained that the 20 people included the owner of the restaurant, and his son, and the people who worked there.

The most curious testimony was that the Bladen County Improvement group brought ballot applications to Dowless's office to be copied and apparently tracked.

Other interesting bits. I found Robeson rhymes with "rob" rather than "robe", like in Paul Robeson.

McCredy's attorney, Marc Elias would sometimes ask about 2016 or the 2018 primary, and the chair of the SBOE would for some reason call him "Jim".

[Bidenworth2020]

Harris's son just said he told his father about the absentee irregularities. He's done, lmao.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris's son just said he told his father about the absentee irregularities. He's done, lmao.

I've been following Nick Ochsner's tweets on the hearing.  Based on the reports so far, I'll be shocked if they don't order a new election.

[Ebsy]

jimrtex should certainly be banned from atlas and perhaps prosecuted for his efforts to cover up election fraud in NC-09. Shameful.

[Smash255]

This picture sums it up quite well

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, Harris is done.

They should order a new election plus a new primary tomorrow already and if Harris has any decency left, he should not run anymore after this disgrace.