Quebec 2022 Election

[mileslunn]

Largely a snoozer at this point as seems highly unlikely CAQ don't get re-elected, but battle for second place could get interesting.

CAQ: Barring some major scandal or mistake, I don't see how they do not get re-elected.  That being said numbers have come down to earth a bit and aren't in high 40s/low 50s anymore so share of popular vote may not be that much above the 37% they got in 2018.  But with opposition so badly divided, should easily win a majority.

PLQ: Party's raison d'etre was to stop another referendum and was never coherent in ideology with people across political spectrum.  Fact Charest now running for Conservative leader and Mulcair former NDP leader in same party says a lot.  They seem to increasingly becoming an Anglophone and Allophone party with very limited support amongst Francophones.

QS: They may come in second, but very distant and support very concentrated in urban cores and university towns.  They appeal to your left wing millennials, but too left wing to make big gains.

PQ: They may be in their death spiral.  Left flank gone over to QS who are pro sovereignty but progressive while right flank mostly to CAQ who are nationalist but not separatist (I think at this point most realize a sovereign Quebec is not coming anytime soon if ever).  They may hold some in Gaspesie region and perhaps even North Shore which are quite traditionalist but cannot see beyond that.

PCQ: Two polls put them in second place and now in high teens maybe low 20s.  No doubt Eric Duhaime being a popular radio show host helps.  Any seats won probably in Quebec City region and areas nearby, so similar to federal Tories.  Also could split votes enough that deny CAQ many seats although not likely enough to cost majority.  At same time if make it through to Fall with no further covid restrictions, that might sap a lot of their support as I believe much of their support is over opposition to covid restrictions which are mostly gone by now so as that finds into rear view could see many return to CAQ.

[mileslunn]

The story of Quebec right now basically seems like a party figured out that if they offered Quebecers nationalism without separatism's baggage, federalists & separatists alike would flock to them & crown them the head of a one-party province.

More that the modern generations were ready to move on from that debate, and had stopped identifying with those labels. So when a party can along that abandoned those labels in a way that clearly left the debate in the past...

And yet at the federal level Quebec is still captive to the old federalist LPC vs separatist BQ. It looked for a while like the NDP could break that mold in Quebec federally but now its back to the same old same old

I would say in Quebec you are seeing more your urban vs. rural split as opposed to traditional separatist vs. federalist.  Urban nationalist like Hochelaga and Sherbrooke have Liberal MPs.  Liberals winning in same type of areas they win in Ontario while BQ mostly in areas that would vote Conservative in Ontario and Conservatives in around Quebec City region.  I think BQ rebound was more NDP not an option and for those upset with Liberals.  Tories going into 2019 had a real chance to breakthrough in rural Quebec, but blew it big time as Scheer was a horrible fit for province.

BQ federally is more centrist than they were in 90s and most BQ voters are CAQ provincially not PQ.  It seems PCQ is now becoming home of most Conservative voters although many went CAQ in 2018.

[mileslunn]

It honestly would be kinda funny if PP of all people is the one to win over these voters through I dunno...leveraging discontent and his identity maybe?

PP may have a French sounding name - but he is anglo through and through. He is from Alberta and speaks OK French as a second language. There are plenty of people with more English sounding names than PP who speak much better French than he does

I thought he was a Francophone.  His biological parents yes Anglophones but I thought his adopted parents were Francophones.  I don't believe though he has any French ancestry despite his name as Poilievre comes from his adopted parents not biological.

[mileslunn]

Looks like CAQ landslide majority and real race is for second.  PLQ probably still forms opposition as vote more concentrated.  QS may come in second in some polls, but their support skews heavily towards younger voters who are less likely to show up so depending on whether younger voters become more conservative or not, may have potential long term, but not short term.  PQ is pretty irrelevant and any seats they hold will be more due to popularity of MNA.  PCQ seems to be receding so although will do a lot better than 2018, I think their surge earlier was due to opposition to covid restrictions and with those all gone now, that has somewhat lessened their appeal.  I don't see them getting 20% or even 15%.  Maybe 10%, but unlike if an election were held in Spring in which they might have come in second votes (not seats) and gotten 20%, it seems a good chunk who voted CAQ in 2018 and were angry at covid restrictions have returned to CAQ.

[mileslunn]

In the Léger poll one question is if it's possible or not that people would vote for each party.  This can give a ceiling for each party.

53% of people said it's possible they vote CAQ, 31% QS, 28% PLQ, 26% PQ and 24% PCQ.

There are details by age. language and regions.
Francophones say at 63% it's possible they vote CAQ, 33% QS, 18% PLQ, 32% PQ, 21% PCQ.
Non francophones (small sample): 26 CAQ, 24 QS, 59 PLQ, 11 PQ, 35 PCQ.

Since the poll has PLQ voting intentions among non francophones at 53% there doesn't seem much room to grow in that traditional group of support.

There is also a question on likelyhood of casting a ballot. By party vote PLQ voters are 10% under other party voters to cclaim they are certain to go vote.

Last election the turnout was 66,45%. Since the election doesn's seem close maybe turnout will drop. In Ontario last election had a very low turnout. If we have a low turnout does it help the government or opposition. Is it CAQ supporters will be complacent or opposition being demotivated. If the most important factor is age (older go vote) it helps CAQ since it dominates the older age group.

Ceilings interesting.  For CAQ obvious high and while probably will win.  For Quebec Solidaire interesting as while not enough to win shows them have long run potential especially as strong with younger voters.  PQ and PLQ are devastating as both well below what party usually gets.  It basically means even if run a picture perfect campaign, at best both while have a reasonable size opposition but far from being able to form government.  PCQ suggests party has its limits and their best hope is hope CAQ flounders and gets minority and they can have enough concentrated vote they form balance of power, but really I don't see CAQ not winning a majority nor do I see PCQ winning more than a handful of seats, probably none.

[mileslunn]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

[mileslunn]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

Its a good question, one could argue that the supposedly more centre-left Quebec Liberals were much more rightwing when they were last in power than the CAQ has been.

I find it interseting anytime anyone refers to Quebec politic parties as "much more rightwing" or "far right" or "how conservative" the party is.  This is a province where University tuition is about 3k per year, daycare is $10 per day, they have a universal pharmacare program, some of the highest redistribution of wealth in the world (highest taxes), government paid gender reassignment, forever lasting rent control attached to the unit,.. all things the Liberals and CAQ support btw..  Your idea of conservatism does not fit in Quebec.

I think its all relative and parties left or right tend to only move the needle so much so those things you mention more a legacy of all the governments they have had over the years.  Saskatchewan in recent years has had mostly right wing governments, yet on crown corporations, they still have more of them than any other province and more than most European countries do too.  But again that is a legacy of CCF/NDP once being dominant party. 

Yes occasionally you get types like Margaret Thatcher who do radically change things, but politicians like that are rare.  I agree CAQ is not right wing in sense most think in English speaking world, but in French speaking world its very similar to les Republicains in France who are generally labelled as centre-right.  And its every bit as conservative as the centre-right parties in Nordic Countries who no matter who is in government have very high taxes and large welfare state.

[mileslunn]

In what way is CAQ any different ideologically from Macron's party in France? These days the main thing that sets Les Republicains apart from LREM is that LR is now very socially conservative - not exactly what I associate CAQ with

True, I am more thinking about past as parties change under leaders.  Although CAQ is culturally conservative but not socially conservative, see Bill 21 which is a fairly right wing idea.  However CAQ ideologically is somewhat inconsistent.

[mileslunn]

Wonder if Pontiac could be a PCQ surprise?  I know federally Tories won several polls there despite losing riding badly thanks to getting clobbered in the Gatineau portion.  It is largely Anglophone but in many ways more like Renfrew County in voting patterns than your typical Anglophone riding.

Beauce seems possible as that area is quite libertarian so running on small government is a big winner there even if a vote loser in much of Quebec.

[mileslunn]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

If it closely mirrors federal Tory vote, then probably get over 10 seats as federal Tories in last four elections have consistently been in high teens like PCQ is now polling but won around 10 seats each time.  In 2006 when federal Tories first broke through in Quebec, many wrongly used uniform swing showing despite huge jump in support from 2004, party would only win a handful of seats.  Instead because votes concentrated enough it won 10 seats and has largely stayed around there.

Even in 2015 when party went from 5 to 12 seats, its share of popular vote was unchanged.  Its just it went up in areas that mattered while went down in areas they had no chance of winning anyways.

Now not saying PCQ will follow federal Tory strongholds, just if does they likely do better in seats than many think.

[mileslunn]

Overall my big thoughts are seems big divide between Island of Montreal where CAQ only won 2 seats while off the island of Montreal, only 8 seats they failed to win.

Looking at parties

CAQ: Won big and definitely the dominate party amongst Francophones.  Despite that only got 41% which is not particularly high or unusual for a winning party.  But thanks to divided opposition allowed a landslide win.  Next year possible you see in Alberta & Manitoba losing party get above that so divided opposition helped a lot.

PLQ: Did absolutely horrible getting under 15%.  Only did alright in seats as vote very concentrated.  They seem very much the party of non-Francophones so yes have a base to build off but lots of work to do before have a realistic shot at power.  However Quebec is known for wild swings so CAQ is by no means a shoo in for 2026.

QS: Looks like came in second in votes and did alright in seats.  May have even come in first amongst millennials, but appeal is more towards your urban woke crowd thus certain concentration of support but probably need to become more a traditional social democratic party with greater blue collar appeal to be a real contender for power and as we've seen elsewhere appealing to both no easy task. 

PQ: With two seats, party seems on last legs.  With CAQ appealing to more conservative nationalist while QS to more left wing separatist, not sure there really is much room for them.

PCQ:  Failed to win a seat which is no surprise as libertarianism has never really been popular in Quebec.  But if you look at strongest ridings, yes strongest in Quebec City region where Tories are federally, but also came in second in many heavily Anglophone ridings so strong opposition to Bill 96 probably helped them there as PLQ was accused of throwing Anglophones under bus and not fighting strong enough for their rights.

Anyways both Ontario and Quebec elections were snoozers.  PEI next year likely is but Alberta & Manitoba should be more competitive and thus more interesting.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

Quebec Solidaire strikes me more as an urban left wing party and yes separatist but their leftist ideas more so than separatism is what attracts people to them.  Very similar base to what Corbyn in UK had or Bernie Sanders in Democrats.  Amongst younger people, there is a feeling system is not working so more open to radical ideas so lots going to QS on left.  Also PCQ did better amongst younger voters too as not all turning left, some turning right too, especially libertarian right.

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to do up the results for the 17 regions as be interested in those.

[mileslunn]

Here is Quebec by the 17 regions

Bas-Saint Laurent

CAQ - 40.5%
PQ   - 30.4%
QS   - 12.7%
PCQ - 12%
PLQ - 4.7%

Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean

CAQ - 57.5%
PQ   - 19.4%
PCQ - 10.3%
QS  -  9.3%
PLQ - 3%

Capitale Nationale

CAQ - 42.2%
PCQ - 20.8%
QS  - 16.3%
PQ  - 13.5%
PLQ - 6%

Mauricie

CAQ - 53.1%
PCQ - 15.7%
PQ   - 14.1%
QS  -  11.1%
PLQ - 5.2%

Estrie

CAQ - 45.4%
QS   - 21.6%
PCQ - 12.1%
PQ   - 11.5%
PLQ - 8.1%

Ile de Montreal

PLQ - 34.9%
QS   - 22.5%
CAQ - 18.7%
PQ   - 10.7%
PCQ - 8.8%

Outaouis

CAQ - 43%
PLQ - 21.3%
QS  - 14%
PCQ - 10.5%
PQ  - 9.3%

Abitibi-Temiscamingue

CAQ - 46.2%
QS   - 21.4%
PQ   - 14.5%
PCQ - 9.7%
PLQ - 7.6%

Cote Nord

CAQ - 52%
PQ   - 23%
PCQ - 12.9%
QS   - 8.5%
PLQ - 2.8%

Nord

CAQ - 36.3%
QS   - 24.2%
PLQ  - 18.2%
PQ   -  12.6%
PCQ -  8.8%

Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine

CAQ - 42.5%
PQ   - 35.6%
QS  - 9.2%
PLQ - 7.7%
PCQ- 4.6%

Chaudiere-Appalaches

CAQ - 45.7%
PCQ - 33.2%
PQ   - 8.7%
QS   - 7.7%
PLQ -  4.4%

Laval

CAQ - 32.5%
PLQ - 30.2%
PCQ - 12.7%
QS   - 12.4%
PQ  -  10.8%

Lanaudiere

CAQ - 51.1%
PQ   - 20.1%
QS   - 13%
PCQ - 9.1%
PLQ - 6.2%

Laurentides

CAQ - 48.5%
PQ   - 17.5%
QS  -  14.3%
PCQ - 10.7%
PLQ - 7.8%

Monteregie

CAQ - 45.7%
PQ   - 15.7%
QS  -  14.1%
PLQ - 13.8%
PCQ - 9%

Centre du Quebec

CAQ - 51%
PCQ - 19.9%
PQ   - 13.8%
QS   - 10.7%
PLQ  - 3.9%


CAQ: Asides Island of Montreal dominated everywhere else with Laval being only region somewhat close.  They've more or less gobbled up both former PQ and ADQ support

PLQ: Largely a Montreal/Laval party while in much of rest of province irrelevant.  Single digits and often fifth places so fallen mightily and in even worse shape than topline seat numbers suggest

QS: While largely confined to more your trendy urban areas, they still managed to get around 10% in much of rest of province suggesting they do have support elsewhere but not nearly enough to win.

PQ: No real area of concentration, not even the eastern parts which are now CAQ, but still some residual support in traditional areas but largely in teens and with no area of strength ability to win seats depends largely on popularity of local candidate.

PCQ;  Chaudiere-Appalaches area came closest in and also second in Centre du Quebec and Capitale Nationale.  Their support has strong correlation with federal Conservative support and mirrors that, just lower levels thus why not winning seats.  Though in Montreal area did best in Anglophone/Allophone areas probably largely due to opposition to Bill 96 so not all support came at expense of CAQ, some came from PLQ too.