Venezuelan 2010 Election

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

None whatsoever. It won't be. But neither it is going to be a Russian election. And there is a real opposition there. So, opposition should, at least, get represented now, even if it would take it a lot more than 50% of the real vote to win. They might even get a sufficiently large minority that would block at least some action in the legislature. And, furthermore, I don't think the revolt threshold is really that high: if it gets too blatant, you'd get a caracazo. And if you get a caracazo, it's not clear what the army will do, even with all the personnel changes Chavez has made.

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

Surely, you are not serious. No, it's not at all like the American system.

[ag]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

When he lost the referendum, he was, apparently, forced to recognize the loss, because he couldn't be certain of the army support. He's purged it since.  But whether they remain reliable in case of a caracazo, I don't know.

[ag]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

The army has been thoroughly purged, but as Allende proved, no matter who you put in charge, political pressure tends to drive it in the same direction. The Army will back Chavez as long as it is expedient to do so, and probably not a lot longer.

The real battle here will be post election. The opposition will do well, perhaps get over 50%, but not win a majority of seats. They will cry fraud, Chavez will call them spies and traitors, they will go out into the streets, and riots will break out. After that who knows? Obama doesn't seem to care though.

If they get 40% of the seats, I'd think the opposition will be content enough so that nothing spills into the streets.  If things get blatant, though - that's another matter.

The best way the US administration could support Chavez right now would be to start making pro-opposition noises. As long as it's home-grown, the opposition is credible - if you want to discredit it, make sure they are seen as US puppets. There is really nothing that can be done today from the outside. Just make sure that Chavez knows he can't lash out at neighbors to maintain his popularity. Other than that, it's the Venezuelan thing, and Venezuelans will have to get rid of the SOB themselves. It's only after it happens that US will have a major role to play.

[ag]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

There was a poll mentioned in a Mexican paper on Friday. You may be right about the seats - he should be getting about 70% of them. But with merely 52% of the vote. It is that badly gerrymandered.

[ag]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

He isn't getting 70%. Look at the polls.

Votes - no. Seats - might be. Remember, who was doing the gerrymandering and who will be doing the counting.

[ag]

So, here is the sample ballot:

http://static.eluniversal.com/votacion2010/distritocapital5.jpg

Looks a bit messy, in my opinion. Have you figured out how to vote? I guess, this is how:

This is a combined ballot for the list and for the candidates. The list vote is used to elect 3 members from a larger circumscription (yes, they deliberately have list votes for very small circumscriptions).  This particular district sends two members. Each voter is supposed to vote for the list and separately for the two candidates of his/her choice. This is, I believe, what it means that there are "3 votes to issue". I am really interested in how they will treat things like undervotes and such.

Note, there are many fewer candidates then it appears: you can vote for the same candidate on multiple lines. That's good: this is what allowed the opposition to agree on joint candidates.  There are, really, only 3 blocks, w/ a few minor candidates on top of that. Still, it's a messy ballot, lists are nowhere to be seen, instructions on how to vote are not very clear. It's on top of an unnecessarily complicated electoral system that allows for a lot of nasty gerrymandering.

Here is a great site w/ maps for tomorrow. Has historical results from contested elections/referenda, candidates and such. Enjoy:

http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/01/v2010_inf_parlamentarias-al-de_01A4413973.shtml

[ag]

polls closed, I believe

[ag]

It seems there won't be early partial results from the electoral authority: only the full (district?) results will be published, whenever they have those.

[ag]

They need time. It's a machine vote, so, you'd think, they'd do it fast and easy. But they need to get very clear results, so that Chavez has something in his hands when talking to the generals to see what announcement they'd tolerate )  At least, that's what they've done in 2007.

[ag]

Seems like there are no real exit polls At least, no nationa exit polls. The gov't has announced soething - they are on track to get 113 to 116 seats (w/ a small majority of the vote), but that's self-serving. Opposition really seems to know very little. This is worrysome - they should have set a system for collecting the polling place data for an alternative count. If they don't have that, they'd be at the mercy of Tibisay Lucena (the head of the electoral authority): this is not a person on whose mercy I'd rely.

[ag]

I am really worried. In 2007 there were, at least, rumors and informal data from polling places on the blogs. It's dead today. Really dead. Unless the opposition really has an alternative counting process they are careful not to advertise, this is going to be entirely impossible to cross-check. This is not India: I don't think anyone is going to bet their house on Tibi Lucena's impartiality. This is very dangerous - and, possibly, bad job by the opposition.

[ag]

The freakin polls have been closed for 4 hours. What the hell are they doing? Unpacking the abacus they've had urgently stolen from the National Museum?

[ag]

The freakin polls have been closed for 4 hours. What the hell are they doing? Unpacking the abacus they've had urgently stolen from the National Museum?

I think they should have the first official projection around 10. I am just hoping for at least the PSUV getting pulled under 2/3. Anything to restore checks and balances to Venezuela. If the opposition does better than that, than that is even better.

It's past 10 in Caracas, if I am not mistaken (they have that strange time zone).

This is the most ridiculous thing: no announcements before the big announcement. This is designed to make it difficult to monitor things. Even if they win fair and square, this creates a horrible impression. I will never for the sake of my life understand why they are doing it, unless they are thinking of smthgh funny. But then, they did it in 2007 as well, and then recognized the defeat.

[ag]

If the opposition did indeed win 3 seats in Sucre, that should help offset any possible target misses in other parts of the country.

Well, Caracas Chronicle says they needed 2 districts for a majority. If they got 2 district they, most likely, also got one of the list seats. That would just make it running according to schedule. Still, these were among the more difficult one s to get.

[ag]

I have a feeling, they are trying to cook smthg. This is ridiculous: 5 hours.

[ag]

I am watching Globovision. They are just rehashing stuff w/out any news. "They have done major advances in counting" and such. The only interesting news seems to be that while opposition leaders are visible, the PSUV leaders are not. Everything else is just no news.

[ag]

Expect official results by about 11:35.

11:35 in which time?

whoops sorry. Venezuelan time.

Less then 15 min left in that case. But who the hell knows.

[ag]

Nobody really knows. W/ the control they have of the process, this lack of transparency is really infuriating.

[ag]

Venezuelan accent is funny. Actually, interestingly, it seems that the announcers speak "normal" (I guess, more Bogota than Caracas), bat everyone else sounds funny )

[ag]

Iraq and Afghanistan we do complain about, and complain badly. Still, at least they have the general defense that they are a mess and that they are badly organized. UK does not have the same: they wait till they get all the results in a district to announce smthg, but not in 300 districts. It's been 5.5 hours since the vote, and we don't have a single result. It's a centralized election, w/ the strong electoral authority appointed by the parliament in which opposition was not represented at all. It's fishy. Still, they might do everything honest: they just make it very suspicious. Might be mere stupidity and not evil design, but I still hate it.

[ag]

On Globovision they are showing their programming on a small screen; the big screen is showing some staircase at CNE. A couple of soldiers are guarding some door. Nothing else happens. The rest is just rehashing the day: how everyone voted. It's 11:35 Caracas time now, BTW.

[ag]

On Globovision they are showing their programming on a small screen; the big screen is showing some staircase at CNE. A couple of soldiers are guarding some door. Nothing else happens. The rest is just rehashing the day: how everyone voted. It's 11:35 Caracas time now, BTW.

Idk what's up. El Universal said they would start at 11:35.

Nobody knows anything. One of the committeewomen has exited the closed door, but that's all the news out there. Apparently, no committee members are supposed to be exiting w/out an official announcement. At least, they are saying it si highly unusual.

[ag]

According to Globovision website, she is the vice-president of the electoral commission.

Yep, they first just called her the member, and then mentioned she was a VP. I guess, we are all watching Globovision.