Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

SPILL SPILL SPILL!

NO!!! Abbott is a gift... Turnbull would crush Rudd.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/liberal-partys-best-bet-switch-to-turnbull-20130715-2q01y.html

...it begins.

I'm hearing Rudd is NOW leaning towards August 31... not much else one can do but wait.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/liberal-partys-best-bet-switch-to-turnbull-20130715-2q01y.html

...it begins.

I'm hearing Rudd is NOW leaning towards August 31... not much else one can do but wait.

If this gains any momentum, Rudd'll surely nip it in the bud and go to the GG, right?

[morgieb]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/liberal-partys-best-bet-switch-to-turnbull-20130715-2q01y.html

...it begins.

I'm hearing Rudd is NOW leaning towards August 31... not much else one can do but wait.

If this gains any momentum, Rudd'll surely nip it in the bud and go to the GG, right?

Imagine if on the day he calls the election, Liberals replace Abbott with Turnbull. I'll be very conflicted.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I heard very strong noises that he wants 31 August now, but the Cabinet remains divided, albeit less so than a couple of weeks ago.

It wouldn't surprise me AT ALL that after the special caucus on Monday he goes to the GG very quickly.

Gillard's issue was moving too quickly to gain legitimacy in the public's eyes - I don't see Rudd with those concerns.

The Abbott issue is a weird one but I think the combination of 're-establishment' and Abbott looking weaker than he has in a long time (and the media is FINALLY realising his policy plank is flimsy at best) has to make Rudd think 'If I wait... the dynamic could shift again'

It's not as if the Libs are losing or really behind, so a leadership changes strikes me as an overreaction ... but the story being there weakens Abbott in the public's eyes and make the opposition look more and more unstable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Treasurer has changed the topic of his Press Club address this afternoon from engagement with Asia to essentially releasing the pre-Budget economic outlook update and talking more about the transition...

I'd be very, very surprised now if Rudd hasn't visited the GG by this time next week.

[RogueBeaver]

So the hawks won.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So the hawks won.

I was actually in the camp of... he should wait. But the more I thought about it, the more I think the analogies with Gillard in 2010 aren't accurate. Gillard went early, because she was desperate for legitimacy... I don't sense the same feeling.

[Talleyrand]

I'm still not convinced an August election is the way to go, even though Polnut thinks that Rudd has already established his legitimacy as PM. Rudd can't hope to win this election based on his resurgent popularity alone, and he needs more gaffes from Abbott to have a chance. I think that's possible, but he'll need to risk drawing it out to October in that case. It's sort of like what Paul Keating said to John Hewson in 1992 when the latter challenged him to call a snap election; "I want to do you slowly".

That said, the longer he waits, the more unstable he might make Abbott's leadership, but as Peter Brent has pointed out, that paradoxically makes them more likely to bring back Turnbull, which would doom him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's not so much a case of necessarily agreeing with the probably sentiment on legitimacy... but it's clear that the major issues are being cleared. I don't think Rudd wants Parliament to come back, because pressure will mount to put the ETS legislation up - it'll probably pass the House, but the Senate will be a total s*^%-show...

The ONLY way Rudd can go later than August is to have writs issued and a longer official campaign. Waiting until October without Parliament resuming is impossible to avoid.

I think September 21 is 'still' an outside chance, but the mood to go quickly and more than anything capitalise on Coalition's unsteadiness has overridden initial concerns of Gillard 2.0.

[Platypus]

I'm not voting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm not voting.
[/quote

I wish I had a stronger reaction to it... but I'm torn.

[Platypus]

It's a complex issue, here's my rambling thoughts posted on the BBC World Service facebook page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it's not an automatic reaction against the policy, it's a rejection of the policy for being bad, despite not being necessarily wrong. But the way it is being framed and 'sold' is disgraceful, and the political discourse on the issue in Australia is ing atrocious.

[Knives]

My parents were happy to vote for KRudd even though their fave Julia got the axe, but they've called it quits and will probably donkey after this PNG sh**t and I don't blame them. Kevin is a BAD WORD!!!!!!!!1111 and this is fecal policy, it's completely unethical and goes against any decent persons moral compass.

[You kip if you want to...]

It's bad morals and bad policy, but it's good politics and that's what matters to politicians this close to an election.

[Peter the Lefty]

What a piece of s--t.  Never thought he'd sink this low.

[Frodo]

What a piece of s--t.  Never thought he'd sink this low.

What happened?

[Talleyrand]

What a piece of s--t.  Never thought he'd sink this low.

What happened?

...This happened.

[ag]

Can't the Libs put up Turnbull, for god's sake!? So that decent people would have somebody to support in this election, I mean.

[Platypus]

Turnbull would be forced to keep the coalition's policy, to be fair. Not that he'd be gung-ho about implementing it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull would be forced to keep the coalition's policy, to be fair. Not that he'd be gung-ho about implementing it.

Honestly, I can't think of many Coalition policies that Turnbull would be too gung-ho about implementing lol

[YL]

TBH I'd probably still preference Labor ahead of the Coalition, but (depending on who else is standing) try to put Labor as far down as possible while still doing that and not giving high preferences to anyone obviously horrible.

[Smid]

It's a complex issue, here's my rambling thoughts posted on the BBC World Service facebook page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it's not an automatic reaction against the policy, it's a rejection of the policy for being bad, despite not being necessarily wrong. But the way it is being framed and 'sold' is disgraceful, and the political discourse on the issue in Australia is ing atrocious.

You need to be careful saying this. It is much like what I've been saying for a decade, and the reactionary left has called me heartless for it. You know that, though, from our discussions on this policy over many a pint.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Smid... I think you and I might be a little closer on this issue than Hugh and I this time...

[You kip if you want to...]

Rudd misses the boat for an August 24th election. He's not going to the GG today.