Australia - 7 September 2013

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My understanding is that Canadian precedent is considered, the King-Byng-fling-thing was apparently considered in legal arguments in 1975.

Abbott not suggesting a no confidence vote for tomorrow. Wilkie, Thomson, Katter(!) lining up behind Rudd, so probably would have the numbers anyway.

Labor have 74 with Wilkie, Thomson and Katter, and 75 with Bandt, they just need one more.

Also, Peter Garrett has announced his retirement from politics:
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=883096

[RogueBeaver]

The GG will commission Rudd, but he'll have to announce his appointment on the House floor to test crossbench support. He'll be at Yarralumla at 9:30 AM local time. Presumably we'll get an election date soon enough too?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd does want an August election, no surprise.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will take the oath in 2 hours.

[Хahar 🤔]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

[Talleyrand]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

Current polling has Labor on 40.0% of the 2PP vote in the state, which would mean the party would lose half of its seats in the state (I suspect Petrie, Moreton, Blair, and Lilley/Blair), although the loss of Emerson's personal vote in Rankin could do some severe damage there. Rudd will perform better in the state than Gillard could have ever hoped to do so, but I don't he'll be able to prevent the loss of 3-4 seats.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

Current polling has Labor on 40.0% of the 2PP vote in the state, which would mean the party would lose half of its seats in the state (I suspect Petrie, Moreton, Blair, and Lilley/Blair), although the loss of Emerson's personal vote in Rankin could do some severe damage there. Rudd will perform better in the state than Gillard could have ever hoped to do so, but I don't he'll be able to prevent the loss of 3-4 seats.

You mention Blair twice, did you mean Capricornia or Oxley when you said Lilley/Blair?

[Talleyrand]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

Current polling has Labor on 40.0% of the 2PP vote in the state, which would mean the party would lose half of its seats in the state (I suspect Petrie, Moreton, Blair, and Lilley/Blair), although the loss of Emerson's personal vote in Rankin could do some severe damage there. Rudd will perform better in the state than Gillard could have ever hoped to do so, but I don't he'll be able to prevent the loss of 3-4 seats.

You mention Blair twice, did you mean Capricornia or Oxley when you said Lilley/Blair?

Capricornia, sorry. I don't think Oxley will fall.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

A new poll has been released, showing a 5% swing (!!!!) to Labor:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/snap-sms-morgan-poll-june-26-2013-201306261145

[RogueBeaver]

A) Overnight poll B) Morgan C) Honeymoon. Rudd hasn't changed. 457s are still on the agenda, BTW.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

A) Overnight poll B) Morgan C) Honeymoon. Rudd hasn't changed. 457s are still on the agenda, BTW.

Thanks for that RogueBeaver, my alarm bells were beginning to ring!

[morgieb]

A) Overnight poll B) Morgan C) Honeymoon. Rudd hasn't changed. 457s are still on the agenda, BTW.

While that might be relevant in theory, the SMS polls by Morgan are in fact quite accurate.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Another retirement in the form of Stephen Smith:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/17772698/stephen-smith-resigns-from-politics/

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh boy.  So will he stay on after he (presumably) looses the election?

[RogueBeaver]

As a backbencher maybe, but definitely not as leader.

[RogueBeaver]

One manifesto change: carbon tax replaced by an ETS... which was the original plan anyways. Speeding up the timetable will apparently increase the deficit, per an ALP friend of mine. It'll be Abbott's file since full repeal tops his agenda.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will announce his new Cabinet in a couple of hours.

[Platypus]

I've heard that the ALP will, as much as possible, make this a referendum on the NBN vs. whatever the mess the coalition call a policy is called. It's pretty much the one area of policy that they sh**t all over the Libs in, and if they win, it poisons Turnbull's chances of leading that party.

I don't know if it'll actually work, but it has a chance I guess.

[RogueBeaver]

Turns out it'll be a policy announcement, not the new Cabinet. ETS?

[MaxQue]

NBN?

[RogueBeaver]

NBN?

National Broadcasting Network.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd extends the Gonski deadline by 2 weeks. Howard will return to the campaign trail starting tomorrow with the Victorian kickoff.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd offers an SSM referendum if Abbott doesn't allow a conscience vote, but he's rebuffed by activists.

[Platypus]

NBN?

National Broadcasting Network.

National Broadband Network, actually.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Broadband_Network

[Platypus]

Photo taken by a 12-year old girl, Sophie Deane, of the PM. She happens to have Down Syndrome. I think the truest success of the government has been the world-leading NDIS, and it will be Gillard's best legacy to Australia.