Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't know what the hell Gillard is doing... where's the fire?

It's the first time since he was removed that I wish Rudd was in office, he's got the balls to call out Abbott on his bulls%($... Gillard should be running ads day after day showing he's only interested in winning and will say whatever he needs to to win.

If she won't fight... why should anyone else?

[Phony Moderate]

a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

I think that it's more likely going to be in the upper half of that range.

What makes you think that? The polls were showing a very similar story at this stage in 2007. Gillard isn't as strong or popular as Howard, granted, but Abbott also doesn't have the appeal and newness of Rudd.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When a population stops listening... anything is possible.

[Hifly]

a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

I think that it's more likely going to be in the upper half of that range.

What makes you think that? The polls were showing a very similar story at this stage in 2007. Gillard isn't as strong or popular as Howard, granted, but Abbott also doesn't have the appeal and newness of Rudd.

If you follow Australian politics closely you will notice the attitude of Labor activists and politicians is that of an acknowledgment of a great impending defeat; many within the Labor party are themselves predicting that they could go as low as 30 seats. This notion is given further weight by the general consensus that the largest swings are concentrated in safe Labor seats in heartlands such as Western Sydney, Tasmania, Hunter, and various parts of Victoria. Labor does not even seem confident of holding seats such as Newcastle and Corio. The polling (both internal and public) that has been released to wider view has confirmed this. A poll from a couple of days ago of the safe seat of Isaacs in Victoria (held by a margin of 10%) shows a massive 15% swing away from Labor. Similarly, public polls from seats such as Blaxland and McMahon have also confirmed swings as high as this. Labor themselves suspended internal polling of Victoria's safe seats as the results were perceived to be too damaging for the party leadership.
More importantly however, the past 2 years have provided us with ample evidence of the hostile electoral attitude towards Labor. Both the Queensland and New South Wales elections have directly shown that the public have an appetite for giving Labor landslide defeats of proportions never previously experienced. The polls were not wrong here, and equivalent electoral defeats of epic proportions were not suffered by the Coalition in the run up to the 2007 election. The results of the NSW state election also highlight that it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that seats such as Newcastle, Shortland and Blaxland may fall. I think it's exceptionally naïve and hackish to try and reject the notion that the impending defeat for Labor will be great.

[RogueBeaver]

Even the BBC's getting in on it with 100 days to go.

[Knives]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm a bit doubtful of the 30 seat thing. My own guess is still closer to '96 than '75.

[lilTommy]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Is there any talk, if Labour (sorry Canuck here) is that obliterated, of the party splitting (finally)? The party has an obvious schism between Labour Unity and Socialist Left, they could function as two separate parties and in all likelihood should. Here is Canada, it would be like the NDP (Left-wing, like Socialist Left Labout) and the Liberals (the moderate, centrist Labour Unity) trying to operate as one party which would be an overt disaster.
The Socialist left have a natural ally/potential parter to form a new party in the Greens which could be mutually beneficial; and would provide the larger party (i would assume Labour Unity) with a "natural" governing partner like the Liberals and Nationals.

[RogueBeaver]

I very much doubt it, the intraparty ideological divisions aren't a huge problem right now. Even in 1975, the ALP was back in office within a decade.

[Peter the Lefty]

The relief factor is that Wayne Swan will not be the next leader of the Labor Party.  Smith may well loose his seat as well.  Giggidy. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you're all letting the unfamiliar hysteria of Australian politics get to your heads.

[Smid]

All this post is based on the perspective of the doomsayers above. I think many in Labor are low-balling their prospects, whether in an attempt to swing caucus votes for a leadership challenger, or whether to scare voters in some safer seats into not risking a protest vote, or for some other reason. I think Labor's position in the polls will improve between now and the election (and even if the polls don't improve, I think the election will not be as bad for Labor as currently reflected in the polls, even assuming they are accurately reflecting the current mood and not outliers). 

If 1975 wasn't the end of Labor, this won't be either (Tommy, "Labor" is a proper noun, Labour is the British party, labour is the labour/trade union movement/word meaning "to work", Labor is the Australian Labor Party - and while it may not be how I'd normally spell the word - some parents spell their children's names oddly, but you don't then spell them the "normal" way just because you think the parents have mis-spelt them).

There is the potential for large swings, especially in some of Labor's heartland seats, as evidenced by some state election results. Generally, the electoral landscape of Australia seems to have become more and more "swingy" over the past couple of decades. Looking specifically at Queensland, it was not uncommon throughout the Howard years for a particular polling booth to have a 15% difference between its federal and state election results (granted, they are different elections with different leaders, held at different times, but the point remains that these are generally the same voters who were willing to vote for different parties and not tied to one or the other).

Continuing on that point, and still looking at Queensland, remember that the electoral rout of Labor that occurred last election was only a decade(-ish) after the electoral rout of 2001, where the Liberal Party was reduced to 3 seats and the Nationals a dozen - and only one of those Liberal Party seats was actually able to be considered "retained" on election night (the other two, including the leader's, were "Liberal Leading"). A decade later and the LNP has a similar majority to what Labor had, and Labor finds itself in a similar position to the Coalition following that election. (As an aside, such electoral wipeouts are, I think, bad for democracy, because you need a strong opposition to keep a government accountable, and a viable alternative government to put forward at a future election - good future Ministers need to spend time on the opposition benches and electoral routs make it harder to achieve that depth of experience for future government).

It will be a tough road back for Labor, and there will need to be some careful consideration of policies, but it would be foolish to declare the party deceased, even if the results are as bad for them as the most depressed of you predicts.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

[Smid]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

Queanbeyan will be driven more by ACT, so the swing will be lower there... but I know the coastal towns will be more coalition-friendly... I think E-M can be held on to, largely because Mike Kelly has established a strong presence as the local MP and the electoral shifts support increased ALP presence in the largest population area... I've given it to the Coalition... but it's going to very, very tight. Especially considering in 2010, Kelly was the only NSW ALP MP to get a swing TO him.

[Smid]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

Queanbeyan will be driven more by ACT, so the swing will be lower there... but I know the coastal towns will be more coalition-friendly... I think E-M can be held on to, largely because Mike Kelly has established a strong presence as the local MP and the electoral shifts support increased ALP presence in the largest population area... I've given it to the Coalition... but it's going to very, very tight. Especially considering in 2010, Kelly was the only NSW ALP MP to get a swing TO him.

I agree with every one of your factors (with the exception of strong local presence, as I have no idea of that). I also think it will be very tight, although I'm inclined to expect Labor to retain it, mainly because of the dominance and growing influence of Queanbeyan.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Queanbeyan is a weird mix - in some ways it's very similar demographically to the Tuggeranong Valley in the far south of Canberra - public servants looking for cheaper housing, young families and working-class people... that area saw the biggest swing to the Liberals in the ACT LA election. I think Kelly hold E-M by about 4.2% he would need to keep the swing in Queanbeyan below 2% to hold the seat... which I think will be really tough...

[Hifly]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

And what average 2PP are you actually basing that on? Your prediction seems to be "the odd one out" so to speak.

[Platypus]

Lolno.

[Platypus]

The ALP plan is basically to 'ignore' the election until 25 days out, as the Liberals are going to do anyway, and then go nuclear on the negative.

It's going to be a pretty disgusting election.

[Hifly]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

Why don't you go join the Green Party; you'll be happier there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

And what average 2PP are you actually basing that on? Your prediction seems to be "the odd one out" so to speak.

The 2PP national votes suggest a uniform swing (which won't happen), which over and under-estimates seats losses, which is why state-by-state swings work out slightly less badly. But my numbers end up being 53.3 - 46.7% national 2PP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

Why don't you go join the Green Party; you'll be happier there.

a) because the Greens can't win a national election
b) because I don't like Greens economic policy
c) Under Gillard, the ALP has gone BACKWARDS on social progressivism

But she has very clearly made a calculation that with 2PP voting, progressive votes will end up with her anyway - go she's been focusing on working class and outer-suburban voters at the expense of her progressive base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/in-rudd-we-trust-say-voters-as-annihilation-looms-for-labor-20130608-2nwzq.html

Polling out of 6 Cabinet minister's seats show if Gillard remains leader - Peter Garrett, Craig Emerson and Jason Clare would all lose their seats and the majorities in Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin and Bill Shorten's seats would shrink...

If Rudd were returned... all would hold their seats, with an average improvement of 6.7%...

This comes at the same time as reports emerge that 32 ALP MPs have requested party HQ to arrange a Rudd visit to their electorates in advance of the election.

A friend of mine working for a senior minister tells me, the hope was that Gillard would be able start a shift in support by the end of the Budget sitting session... About 5 weeks ago, I was told internal ALP polling wasn't as terrible as the public polling... but now... they're starting to be as ugly as the public ones...

I think Gillard's hope that policy will trump things in the end is a HUGE mistake - I know she doesn't want this to be about personality (nor do people who actually care) ... but it is (and if you're in a personality/popularity contest with Tony Abbott and LOSING?!) in addition Gillard's shown terrible political judgement and honestly, a lack of serious guts at crucial moments... which kills me to admit. But I'll still take her every day of the week and twice on Sunday over Abbott... if it were Turnbull probably a different story... (but that's not the conversation).