I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.
Basically what Wiz said:
The scenario you are proposing - that reduced African American turnout/support will tank Clinton in NC simply because she isn't black, that would require a pretty decent drop given the support Clinton has from other demographics. Such a drop is unlikely in just 1 election. Black turnout was already trending upwards before Obama, he just supercharged it. Given that studies show people who vote once tend to vote more and more, I'd be skeptical of any claims of the
"2012->2004 electorate theory."To emphasize on Wiz's other points - Clinton is beating the crap out of Trump with GOTV in NC, and her support from college educated whites is valuable as they have higher turnout rates than non-college whites. Romney got, what, almost 60% of college educated whites in 2012, and 74% of non-college? 42-38 is a significant narrowing, even if most of Trump's lost support went to 3rd parties or is undecided.
So I dunno. There are too many reasons to believe Trump is at a disadvantage here if Clinton keeps the race in NC close.
It will decrease and that's a fact.
Oh my god, no. You can't claim something like that as a fact. It's your opinion. The election hasn't even happened yet.
Both nominees are extremely unpopular and there is a reason to believe that turnout will be lower than 2012. Trump has ground to gain with college educated voters and I believe that he will in the end. He should lose that group narrowly.
Based on polls in the past that have correlated somewhat with turnout, there is actually reason to believe that turnout could be high, or remain at 2012 levels:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/07/08/why-clinton-and-trump-may-increase-voter-turnout-in-2016/
