FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC

[Senator Spark]

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

[Senator Spark]

Will Johnson's numbers continue to remain high?

[Senator Spark]

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket. And also based on historical trends, before Obama in 2008, the last Democrat to win there was Carter. Clinton does not energize voters as much as Obama or Trump.

[Senator Spark]

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.

A) No reason to assume African American turnout will drop all that much.
B) White college voters are shifting towards Clinton, Trump already maxed out here with Romneys numbers among non-college whites
C) Ground game, ground game, ground game
4) HB2 and the general state of the NC GOP.

It will decrease and that's a fact. Both nominees are extremely unpopular and there is a reason to believe that turnout will be lower than 2012. Trump has ground to gain with college educated voters and I believe that he will in the end. He should lose that group narrowly.