Republican Party Facing a Stacked Deck in Coming Decades...

[Vepres]

As long as Republicans take a nationalist approach to immigration and the related issues (i.e. English as the official language, zero tolerance for illegal immigrants) they will continue to lose ground with Hispanics

Hispanics are far from a one-issue group that votes en masse for the candidate that supports their issue (immigration). A majority of Hispanics born and raised in the US support the Republican's position on immigration (minus the xenophobia rhetoric). The first generation and second have party registrations that favor Democrats. But by the third generation, they are evenly split between the two parties and independents In fact, they voted in large groups for Democrats because of the mortgage crisis, which disproportionately affected them as they live in states with real estate bubbles (Arizona, Nevada, California).

So, as the mortgage crisis is solved and more Hispanics born in the US enter the electorate, they will become less and less distinguishable from western and Floridian whites.

[Vepres]

As long as Republicans take a nationalist approach to immigration and the related issues (i.e. English as the official language, zero tolerance for illegal immigrants) they will continue to lose ground with Hispanics

Hispanics are far from a one-issue group that votes en masse for the candidate that supports their issue (immigration). A majority of Hispanics born and raised in the US support the Republican's position on immigration (minus the xenophobia rhetoric). The first generation and second have party registrations that favor Democrats. But by the third generation, they are evenly split between the two parties and independents In fact, they voted in large groups for Democrats because of the mortgage crisis, which disproportionately affected them as they live in states with real estate bubbles (Arizona, Nevada, California).

So, as the mortgage crisis is solved and more Hispanics born in the US enter the electorate, they will become less and less distinguishable from western and Floridian whites.

This... uh... simply isn't true. Third generation Hispanics are just as Democratic or more than their earlier-generation counterparts. This is partially because third-generation Cubans in the New York area are much, much more Democratic than the first- and second-generation Cubans in South Florida.

I know I'm being hypocritical by asking this but, citation please?

Whoops, I'm wrong. The study that I was referencing was from 2005 I believe. A more recent one conducted in 2007 showed that generation had little to do with partisan id.

Perhaps Colorado Latinos are more conservative than their border state counter parts? My personal experience with Latinos has been far different than many polls and other people suggest.

Edit: Did a little research and found that Colorado Latinos gave Obama his lowest margin of victory in the group of all states with significant Latino populations (excluding Arizona for favorite son effect, and Florida for Cuban influence).

[Vepres]

I would guess that Latinos that are descended from more recent immigrants are going to be pretty strongly Democratic, but that will vary depending on where they live. I am sure that Latinos in Texas that will be third generation in 2020 are going to be more conservative, than those in California. In the southwest recent immigrants are almost all Mexicans and so far Mexicans are one of the most Democratic Latino voting groups. I don't really see this changing quickly. By 2020 or 2030 there should be starting to be a pretty large amount of illegal immigrant descended second generation voters, with or without some form of amnesty. This generation of voters will probably be unanimously Democratic for the most part.

What I am trying to say is that it will take 30 or 40 years for Latinos to become significantly more Republican. There are just too many recent immigrants and too much of a stigma against the Republican Party with Latinos among people born recently. Rush Limbaugh had approval ratings in the single digits among Latinos, and he is considered the face of the Republican narrowly in a gallup poll.

Another big problem for Republicans will be when the turnout of Mexican-Americans starts to increase in large amounts. I am beginning to think that this is inevitable and when this happens in large amounts it will have pretty huge effects on the Southwest. This hasn't really happened yet but when it does, the Democrats' dominance over parts of the Southwest should be assured.

I think there is hope for Republicans if they support a guest-worker program. This way, they don't reward people for breaking the law, but they help those who want to make their families life in Mexico or where ever better.