Republican Party Facing a Stacked Deck in Coming Decades...

[pbrower2a]

Also Democrats have a solid majority of Jews. But that's changing slowly.

No, it isn't.  Also, Jews are hardly an electoral force on par with Hispanics.

The only state where they are in large enough numbers are NY and FL. Well NY it will take a lot more then Jews to put the GOP over the top. In FL there are a large number of Jews but is more a question of whether the Dem gets 75% or 90% of them and how many turnout. Plus the only Jewish Republican thats succeeded in reaching prominence in Eric Cantor and I don't think he is representative of the broader Jewish community nor would a he be a good spokesperson for attracting that group.

If the state is close enough, like Indiana or North Carolina in 2008, the Jewish vote could be the margin.

[pbrower2a]

There is also much intermarriage between Hispanics and others -- most notably white non-Hispanics. Which is more influential? Which culture is more influential on a youth, and which shapes voting behavior?

The aversion that many white people have toward marrying blacks does not apply so strongly to marrying Hispanics.  Skin color is not culture.  Cultural habits are. I see multilingual packaging on consumer goods. The assimilation goes both ways with such things as party favors. I noticed a pan which was said to be designed for making lasagna -- and lazana (I don't have the tilde above the "n"). Lasagna is of course not native to any Latin-American culture unless one speaks of persons of Italian origin.   

 

[pbrower2a]

Two elections isn't a trend, people. Just because Hispanics have "trended" Democratic in 06 and 08 is meaningless, as recent as 04 they were "trending" Republican. There are too many factors to take into account that make us unable to determine whether this is a long-tern trend.

One trend always merits watching: the voting of the youngest voters. Basic personalities and attitudes change little over life. If young voters tend to be more conservative than older voters (1980s) on economics and foreign policy they will tend to be more conservative than the general public,  then they are more likely to vote for conservative politicians throughout their lives. As older, more liberal-leaning voters die off the electorate becomes more conservative. (Youth will be more liberal than their elders on sexuality irrespective of their values on economics and foreign policy but become more conservative as their kids become teenagers -- I wonder why). If youth lean liberal in a country split about 50-50 liberal-conservative, then the young, more liberal voters will supplant older voters slightly more  conservative who die off. Such tends to make a more liberal-leaning electorate for a few years.

That is the trend. It's possible to believe that as the youngest generation of voters develops a stake in the economy it might become more conservative -- which will happen when the current young voters start professional practices, when the businesses that they start begin turning profitable (and tempting to taxing authorities), enter management in business, and start accumulating savings. Then they might find inflation a threat to their wealth, regulation a pain, and "pro-business, anti-labor" policies compatible with their economic lot. Such of course has yet to happen. Most young adults with professional and even clerical jobs have large student loans to pay off, so they are unlikely to see inflation as much bane as deliverance.

The trend of Latinos to the Democratic Party in 2006 and 2008 may reflect one thing: relative youth. Although new Latino citizens may be of all ages, those are not the sole story in voting practices. Many have been citizens from birth or childhood, and they get to vote at age 18. Young Latino voters may be an exaggeration of the trend of voting among youth.   

[pbrower2a]

...If you look at all the exit polls, even among minorities - African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, etc. - Obama always did best among young voters 18-29 years of age. He also won the young white vote in a couple of states that he lost (Missouri and Montana - I believe a map was posted on the forum under a different thread) but ironically he lost the young white vote in states that he carried including Virginia, Florida, and New Mexico, but disregarding race, Obama won the national youth vote by a two-to-one margin over John McCain. That cannot be good news for the Republican Party, and I do agree that their coalition is shrinking and Democrats' is expanding.

The GOP must win back a significant part of the vote of people born between 1979 and 1994, or else it will have a long time in the minority, often in places that it has considered safe for decades (like Indiana and Virginia). Those age cohorts may revert some toward the norm when they are in their forties and fifties, but that will not be fast enough to return the Republican Party from a party of aging white people. Such people will largely revile George W. Bush as long as they are alive in large numbers as voters, which means until at least the 2060s. The oldest among them are surely teaching school and shaping attitudes of teenagers who take learning seriously, and it won't be long before many start entering politics -- largely, I figure, as Democrats.

Sure, they will be more responsive to ideology than to partisan identity, so special interests within the GOP will still be burned should the GOP become the party that includes those who think that Obama doesn't or didn't go fast enough.         

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It's not simply "God"; it's a description of God that few educated people can accept. The age group in question believes that science has more means of solving some of the great problems in life (let us say, prediction of earthquakes and mitigation of their damage) than does  appeasement of a "God angry at sinners". If the Big One strikes San Francisco, then the cause will be in stresses along a fault line than the presence of so many gays. I find Mendelian genetics, Darwinian evolution, Freud's theories of the subconscious, Einstein's relativity, and Wegener's theory of continental drift far more useful  than any guilt trips.

As for sex education (a supposedly "un-Godly" practice), what is the alternative? "Doin' what comes natcher'ly"? Or relying upon pornography? We can make sex education both rational and moral it must be both, and that relies upon setting a firm foundation in science.

Guns? We Democrats need to make clear that we are against the sorts of firearms that no hunters would ever want -- and that we are more reliable protectors of the environment in which sport hunters hunt. People who stick up convenience stores and restaurants aren't sport hunters. The four most common circumstances that result in murder are family arguments, bar-room brawls, armed robberies, and drug dealing. Because armed robberies are rarer than the other three, they must be unusually deadly. Let's make armed robbeery more difficult.

Gays? I have no problem with homosexuality so long as we both keep our pants up and zipped in each others' presence.     

My hypothesis is that if the Republican Party continues to be driven by conservative right-wing talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Ann Coulter, etc. who alienate, demonize, bash and label everyone who disagrees with them as "socialists," "liberals," "idiots," "Godless," etc., that leaves no room for moderation, and my generation will become a faithful voting bloc of the Democrats nearly or in as much as African Americans have. Furthermore, if the Religious Right of the party is not silenced or at least compromises on their values, it is going to turn off youth even more. Calling people "sinners," "perverts," "deviants," "immoral," and telling them "You're going to Hell!" if they support a woman's right to choose or marriage equality isn't exactly a good way to get votes, especially young voters who are already skeptical about organized religion and its inevitably waning influence in politics.

Young adults are definitely not hippies, and if they are more atheist than their parents, maybe it is because they saw too much of the religious clowns on TV. If they are religious they want their religion to respect reason and intellect.